TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today.
Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time.
Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets.
Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one.
In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2.
Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case.
Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3.
Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3.
I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow?
Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match.
Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2.
Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to.
Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets.
In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2.
Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3.
Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past.
Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time.
The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit.
Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3.
Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent.
That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon.
Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5.
Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now.
FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up.
Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3.
McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3.
Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective.
I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4.
Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round?
Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).

Lump on. That is what the Football Association would like you to believe Kieran Trippier told his friends shortly before his move to Atletico Madrid. It implies a ring, a sting and big, big rewards, hence his 10-week ban. It was nothing of the sort.
Transcripts reveal a more earthbound reality. The circle trying to win a few quid, the player trying to be a pal. One of Trippier's mates asks if he should 'lump on' — the first time the phrase is used — and gets the reply: 'Can do mate.' Later, pressed, Trippier adopts the same turn of phrase. 'Lump on if you want mate,' he advises. It is the tamest of endorsements.
Yet, as the friends swiftly discover, lumping on really isn't an option. Bookmakers don't want anyone lumping on a transfer bet because the only person who would enter such an unpredictable market with cash and confidence is in the know. Nobody is betting big money on a hunch.
So it's a win-win. If the move collapses the bookmakers keep the cash, and if it delivers they have the safety net of football's governing body to do their dirty work, if betting patterns indicate prior knowledge. So one of Trippier's friends had his stake 'massively restricted', and another got £300 on, but only at odds of 1-6, giving bookmakers a liability of £50 and a red flashing light.
Some of the other bets were laughable: £8.75 at 1-2, liability £4.37; £20 at 1-2, liability £10; £20 at 1-3, liability £6.66; £25 at 8-13, liability £15.38. The biggest bets were undermined by short odds: £100 at 5-6, liability £83.33; £120 at 5-6, liability £100. Another bet of £300 at 4-11 gave the winner £109.09, while £80.34 was wagered at 3-10, a return of £24.10.
The significant numbers here are not being made off book-makers. 'Levy just wants £500,000 more,' Trippier told his acolytes at one stage. According to FA evidence, the fee was finally agreed with Tottenham for £25m, which rather puts that £4.37 into perspective, or even the big hit, £109.09. As does the £482m Denise Coates was paid as chief executive of Bet365 across two years between 2017 and 2019.
And, yes, it's the principle that counts, not the profit. Trippier should not have been sharing privileged information with people he must have reasonably assumed were using it for gambling purposes.
Yet, why, exactly? This isn't a match. He isn't affecting the outcome and therefore the integrity of a competition. Bookmakers have chosen to make a market on his life, and in doing so have placed him in jeopardy.
Who makes significant career decisions without discussing it with family or friends, without taking counsel, or offering progress reports? Trippier did not ask for this book to be opened, and receives no revenue from it. Maybe that is what should change.
The only way these bans and fines would be fair is if book-makers had to seek permission from the individuals involved, who would receive a cut of the revenue as part of their image rights. Then, if a player was found to be manipulating the market, or offering the inside track, it would be fraud and he could be penalised accordingly.
This is just the FA acting as bookies' muscle. If they didn't pursue cases against players such as Trippier and Daniel Sturridge, the gambling houses would soon tire of losing and the problem would go away. It is the FA that facilitates this by acting as enforcer — as if the grubby charade is any of their business.
This is now being tested. Atletico Madrid have challenged the ban which is suspended, pending appeal. The club will go to FIFA and then the Court of Arbitration for Sport if unsuccessful.
Their case is simple. They bought a player. They had nothing to do with a betting scandal that took place when he was still under contract to Spurs, or a punishment handed down from a different country. Had Trippier served it as administered, he would have missed 13 Atletico matches including the home Champions League fixture with Chelsea. As he would not even be allowed inside the training ground before March 1 — or to attend a game — his place in the Madrid derby scheduled for March 7 would have been in jeopardy, too.
And this is a huge season for Atletico. They top the table with a two-point lead and games in hand on Spain's big two. They could win LaLiga for only the second time since 1996 — and Trippier is their first-choice right back.
Certainly, it did not escape Atletico's attention that his ban did not impinge on any international fixtures, leaving the FA and English football unscathed. Atletico protested and FIFA listened. It could mean, if the punishment is delayed but upheld, that Trippier misses the European Championship. That leaked this week as if the FA were trying to put the frighteners on.
Yet, so what? It's their trumped-up ban. Given the friend-of-the-right-back's-cousin's-best-mate's-cleaning-lady source of transfer gossip is such a familiar trope, how preposterous is it that the FA make passing information a crime? Equally, why are they prioritising protecting the sanctity of an artificial betting market created to separate mugs from their money?
Unless some mug knows somebody, of course. Then, they'll refuse to pay, turn the source over to the beaks, and the FA will prosecute as if they've cracked the crime of the century. Strange, isn't it, that they're so fascinated by £4.37 — but rarely with the part where the real money gets made?
link if you want give click to the dm

Hi! A ton of great tennis in this third round. About half the women's matches are here, and I'll edit in the rest in about 20 minutes. Thanks to those of you that have participated in our picking contest AO CONTEST DOT TURTLE DOT COMNo thanks to those of you that are currently beating me though. Please make some errors today thank you <3
Update : All matches are here now
Djokovic Fritz : Novak played one of his trademark strange unexplainable trying-to-lose performances against Tiafoe. He was passive, he made rally ball errors, and he struggled with the heat. He seemed to have minor neck stiffness, and just overall was not at his best. Once the sun went down though, he coasted. This was a good match for Tiafoe but after seeing previous comments after losing to a top player like “I had you bro”, I’m not sure he’ll get the right takeaways here. If we look at the positives first, Tiafoe served great in this. He hit a number of very effective second serves out wide and hit his serves harder than he generally does without a huge variation in % that landed in ze box. He got slice-happy for a good chunk of time, but he hit his backhand in the court and used the angles available to pressure Novak when he had control. Of course, this doesn’t produce points against he best backhand in tennis, but it does against everyone else on tour. If Tiafoe stays committed to keeping the ball on the court, then instead of him tiring out it will be his opponents. The forehand is still a very easy shot to miss low if his footwork isn’t there, but footwork is 75% conditioning and 25% mental focus. The closer he gets to these kinds of results that he wants, the more he will work harder in earlier less interesting clashes to get to the good stuff. The smart child eats their vegetables first so they can get to mom’s fancy chicken. Or mom’s fancy tofu, I see you vegemarians.
The downsides are what made me think Tiafoe had no chance even though he had a chance. In a 3 out of 5 match, there are going to be highs and lows. Djokovic was struggling, was extremely subdued, and looked frustrated. When someone isn’t engaged in the match like that, be like a burglar. Quietly do the work and don’t celebrate. This isn’t what fans want to see, and I also laughed a bit seeing Tiafoe get hyped after winning the second set, but screaming “I love this shit” and immediately nodding like he expected the result all along, is a wild reaction to winning a single set, and slapping your chest and celebrating a single set just kinda shows that you are winning battles while having no real intentions towards the war. The errors came, and despite Novak playing some amazing shots, Tiafoe devolves quickly into shaking his head as if he cannot possibly believe how good his opponents are playing. This obviously goes against his nature. Tiafoe is a happy dude. He loves to play in these big moments, and he believes in himself so when the results come, it’s easy to feel validated. Game management is about emotional as much as physical though, and he kinda released the confetti early in this one. What I do want to see in the future, even though I am not his coach and have no business voicing my opinion, is Tiafoe just get out there and absolutely look to smoke some people. He got to net when he shouldn’t have in this but it was a great move to force Djokovic to speed up his tempo, and Tiafoe’s hands at net are inconsistent but also amazing. He has a higher register than most guys on tour and the decision to press the issue is really just a decision. It’ll come with some bad results but he’s already getting those bad results and it’ll add titles if he makes it.
Fritz lost his second round match against Opelka, so it’s surprising that he’s appearing in this round. Moping, and shaking his head in the “telling the supporters I’m not going to win, and to please stop supporting” fashion, he went down 5-1 in the 4th set tiebreaker. I switched off to another match, and Opelka somehow lost his serve and his ability to keep the ball in the court. The 5th set was a sad affair, and Fritz secured my prediction but you have to feel bad for Opelka who was significantly more likely to pressure Djokovic in this matchup since his serve often means it doesn’t matter who his opponent is. Early Novak troubles usually continue, so I don’t know that he will just be his normal self here. If it were another daytime session, Fritz might win a set. Since it’s at night though, I think we’ll see hints of the best Novak, and playing a 5-setter against a server is a really weird preparation for playing Novak Djokovic. If Fritz serves well and hits his forehand well, he can do well against the Novak that struggled with errors against Tiafoe. I just don’t think it’ll happen though. Djokovic in 3.
Fucsovics Raonic : Fucsovics and Wawrinka played the best match of the 2nd round on the men’s or women’s side. Marton was giving Stan the beats for a good 2.5 sets and basically ended up playing Wawrinka into shape. Stan is one of the best players to watch when he’s in form and the only thing that made it better is how good Fucs’ defense really is. He kept the ball coming back and took his opportunities when they came. Down 8-4 in the tiebreaker, and 9-7, it looked over, but he managed to finally earn a win in a high profile match against a top player. I wasn’t entirely sure about the draw and was crossing my fingers he’d be playing Novak in a day session. No such luck, and Raonic comes into this at peak form.
Raonic struggled in the rally against Moutet early, but opened the game up as it went on and looked borderline dominant. Just a slew of 0-30 openings for Corentin, and against a server this is poison. Raonic has a much better defender to hit past in Marton, and I do give the edge to Marton in rallies. If Raonic throws in a poor service game, that set goes to Fucsovics. If Raonic gets fatigued, he also could be in trouble. The problem here is that Fucsovics played 5 sets of tennis, and even for a top athlete this is going to have some degree of wear and tear on you. There is upset potential here since Raonic will have trouble winning baseline rallies, and Fucsovics will be engaged in a lot of them on his own service games which can wear down an opponent, but Raonic has sort of treated his opponents service games like chances to go for broke and apply pressure, and Fucsovics slice backhand may allow Raonic to come to net a good chunk of the time. I’ll be pulling for Fucs, but I think Raonic will be a lot fresher. Raonic in 4.
Martinez Lajovic : If you want to beat Pedro Martinez, don’t win the first set. He has gone down a set and rolled his opponents in consecutive rounds, and it has been a joy to watch. It’s rare that you find an opponent who never takes a shot off, and that’s Pedro. They’re not all struck for pure winners, but he looks to move his opponent constantly and it’s paying off as few have had the mental focus to hang in there so far. Ruusuvuori looked a bit flat at times after his war with Monfils, but Martinez deserved this win. Big reward for him too as he plays another guy who’s not going to serve him out of the match.
Bublik was businesslike against Bedene, and childlike against Lajovic. Dusan made the game ugly, and Bublik missed shots and complained loudly to his box. I feel like the nonstop whining in other languages is overlooked at times, and I’m definitely guilty of enjoying a rant I don’t understand, but wishing Kyrgios/Murray would shut up/stop crying. Lajovic’s strengths here will be his experience and his durability. He can play for as long as Martinez wants to, and he does have infusions of pace and power that can end long baseline rallies. This is a brand new matchup, and I don’t see a lot to separate these two. Lajovic almost had an easier match at the baseline, but dealt with a much bigger serve that Martinez has so far. Martinez has played more consistent opponents, but they didn’t stay very consistent. The Lajovic of the 2020 ATP Cup can compete with anyone. The Lajovic of the mid-season slumps can lose to anyone. I think Martinez is similarly mercurial, but his bottom level is rarely far off from his top level, and I think he has a small edge here. Martinez in 5.
Mannarino Zverev : Mannarino made the quickest work of Kecmanovic. Despite the 3-0 scoreline, these two traded a lot of very crisp rallies with the ball going just inches over the net over and over. The problem really was that Mannarino was comfortable in them, and Kecmenaovic was working hard trying to produce errors. The errors don’t come when Mannarino is on his game, and he was able to cruise into another contest with Zverev. At the US Open Mannarino seemed like a problem early but faded late. As Zverev warms up it seems like he’s playing a different game than Mannarino, scoring down the middle and able to move easily to any Adrian offerings, while Mannarino slowly begins to only really score from errors.
Mannarino is playing significantly better than he was at the US Open, but it seems like the result could be the same. He has to earn errors from Zverev, and the Zverev serve keeps him in matches even with those errors. He’s getting a bit better as time goes by as well, because really the only thing that improves your game at a certain point is repetitions, and he has a ton of high-level matches under his belt. I think Mannarino steals at least one set, but the match would take a real Zverev implosion. Zverev in 4.
Thiem Kyrgios : Poor Koepfer. I thought he might overperform, but instead he was awarded a nice opportunity to fly to a local challenger next week. Thiem looks sharp and when he looks sharp, he starts to look like he’s going to win the tournament. With how many finals he’s been in and how many wins he has against Novak and Nadal, it’s not unreasonable to say he could win this tournament and no one would be really surprised. Enter Nick “Skinny Wombat” Kyrgios. The grumpy gloomy gus with the haircut you won’t let your 10 year old get even though he saw it in a Bad Bunny video continues to win matches. Humbert played a business-like match and reminds me a great deal of Nadal with how he pressures his opponent but doesn’t really go for outright winners. He had match points in the 4th which hurts a little, but there is plenty of time for him and given Nick’s injury struggles, every time he takes the court motivated is a good thing for fans.
Kyrgios played better in this match than he has in recent history. He’s actually improved every single round in the past two weeks. He’s returning well, he’s making sure his forehands go in the court on defense, and he’s hitting sharp angles with his backhand. If he didn’t have the emotional state of a child who’s been told they have to go to sleep, he wouldn’t be as big of an underdog in this match as he is. Still, he has been able to get frustrated at his box for rushing the court and making him miss shots, and still play tennis. His serve is good enough to get to tiebreakers, and that’s a great place to be against Thiem.
Thiem is likely to return serve better than anyone Kyrgios has faced thus far. He’s likely to respond better to Kyrgios’ offensive offerings, and he’s likely to be able to move Kyrgios behind the baseline. His own serve is less heralded but he can hold serve fairly easily when he needs to. I think that will be the small edge in this matchup. Thiem has levels and has the ability to shift between them consistently. Kyrgios has a top gear which is world class but he doesn’t play it all the time. Thus far in his two week run,he’s been able to come up with second serve aces at break points, forehands when he needs them, and good consistently backhand play. I don’t think he’ll be able to here, but I would be very surprised if the scoreline didn’t reflect that he had the chance to. Thiem in 3-4 tight sets.
Dimitrov Carreño-Busta : This is one of the closer matches you can point to in this third round and there are a number of small edges here. Dimitrov has yet to drop a set and is playing the best tennis he has in years. Last week he looked very sharp against Popyrin and then had a quick letdown against Moutet. With how well he backed up his Cilic performance against Bolt, I somewhat suspect that the Moutet loss was more about the timing to prep for the AO than anything else. PCB is a guy who reminds me of Ferrer. He’s never slated to beat the top talent, but there’s really no way to beat him without a heroic effort. Both Dimitrov and PCB are serving their best this week, which makes this even closer.
Two top athletes playing their best in rallies and serving better than usual. I don’t see a real way for this to not be a war. Dimitrov has their only two hardcourt meetings as wins, and if I had to indicate who has a better chance of winning in straight sets, it’d be him. He has the sharper offense and his slice is something I’m not a fan of, but Pablo does make some errors when he has to get low and generate his own pace on the backhand. I keep waiting for Dimitrov’s regression, but it’s unlikely to come. This is a guy that didn’t live up the expectations for so long I almost start to think he’s not really that good. So here, it’s hard for me to say he suddenly will be. This match is winnable, but Dimitrov would have to really do a lot more than beat rusty Cilic and tired Bolt for me to say “yes now he’ll dispatch one of the hardest defensive tests on tour in a hardcourt major”. PCB in 5, but this is one where Dimitrov “could” win, he just hasn’t in the past.
Shapovovalov Auger-Alliassissassissame : These guys are good. Shapo backed up his clutch win against Sinner by sending Tomic back to the internet, and FAA had a game James Duckworth to deal with and made it look easy. This is a real hmmm matchup, and I’m glad the bookmakers have priced it at around -195 Shapo +165 FAA because this is about right. Shapovalov is 14% airhead. He’s the pretty girl that everyone asks to the prom but then he doesn’t show up because he wandered off to see just what this caterpillar is up to? Roughly 7-11 days later he shows back up with a pet butterfly and wants you to hear his new rap but the words don’t rhyme and there are no words and he ate the butterfly by accident and now he’s sad but when you go to hug him he bounds up and runs off to chase a car. Now that may seem hurtful but please understand that is only 14%. The other 86% is a great tennis player with very good shot tolerance and one of the more repeatable serves on tour. Oh but that 14%. That darned 14% means double faults and flinching at his misses and just generally being a guy who the tour sees as someone who can be outlasted.
FAA on the other hand has the emotional reaction on court of someone who’s just woken up from an operation. He knows he’s there, but he’s not quite sure who he is and as he’s wondering wtf what’s this thing coming at me why am I holding a racquet oh did I win? Nice let’s go get a haircut. I’m a big fan of FAA. I think he’s a future #1 and my favorite thing is that he doesn’t temper his offense to the situation. When he has the open court he hits the ball with depth that isn’t necessary, but is if you want to play at the highest level. His serve is excellent when it’s on, and his backhand has nice heights. Criticisms stay on the backhand. It looks a bit awkward at times and Shapo works his opponents backhands nonstop. Can FAA hang in rallies long enough to work the points to even? I don’t suspect that he’ll win the longer rallies, but what we’ve seen so far is that his power has been enough to allow him to dictate offense and win. This is a very good spot for him even though Shap has won most of the previous meetings. FAA is playing his best and is coming off a week and a half of straight set wins. Shapovalov is coming off a bizarre match where just making balls is what was necessary to win. He struggled in a number of service games also, and this could be poison in this next round. Playing an extremely easy opponent and then a very difficult one is not good prep and playing a guy like Duckworth who works hard but can’t win is a great confidence booster. I’m leaning into the upset. FAA in 5.
Karatsev Schwartzman : Diego is going to lose? Aslan Karatsev has a cool name. Aslan Karatsev has a cool game. He beat Gerasimov like he did something, and was predicted to by the books as well. He has a big serve and a ton of power. He’s consistent, and businessy on the court. These are very nice things, but now he faces Diego Schwartzman. Muller in the previous round had difficulty winning single games, and while Karatsev is a huge step up, Diego Schwartzman is a pretty big market. Yet Karatsev is only +230 against him. This is still a nod to Diego of course, but when you look at lines you have to conceptualize the flow of money into the prices. This somewhat short price doesn’t mean you go blindly backing Karatsev, but it’s the sort of thing that makes you go “hmm”. When you find yourself going “hmm” about a line, often the best thing is to skip it, and watch the match. You can get a lot of info about markets and pricing from this, and the general insistence on reading the tea leaves and trying to be right can lead to poor confirmation and unnecessary stress. Sportsbetting is never a multiple choice exam; you don’t have to make a selection if you’re not sure. Diego really only struggles on hardcourt with holding serve. He’s an excellent returner and generally halfway through the match his opponent is already physically fatigued and looking to end rallies quicker. So what will Karatsev’s formula be to win? So far it’s been big serves and big forehands. A whole match of those is necessary to beat Diego, but Karatsev is pretty fresh here since Gerasimov was pretty immobile. I’m not sure if it was injury or fatigue from his match with Paire, but he really wasn’t moving for the ball a lot of the time.
Diego doesn’t have any real reason to be fatigued here, having had fairly easy matchups with Muller and Ymer. I expect Karatsev to perform well and apparently so do the books, but I’m not sure I can say that he’s going to win out loud. I’d be very wary of backing Diego for this one, but Schwartzman in 5.
Rublev Lopez : Mannnnnnn Rublev is good. I can’t say much else. He sees it, he smashes it. I’m sure he watched tennis as a kid and thought “why don’t they smash?” on every shot. He must feel like he’s a kid in possession of some big secret half the time. “Hhehe, they don’t know about smash.” Lopez cheated death in that last round, being down 2 sets quickly and really struggling, he just kinda found a serving rhythm and was able to squeak by. Sonego must be frustrated by that loss, but it’s the story every time Lopez wins. You kinda know what he’s going to do, but you just can’t physically get to the ball in time to stop it. His T serve from the ad side bends as well as Gilles Muller, and he mixes up his volleys at net to really keep his opponent from having good angles to pass him. He’ll need that against Rublev, and I do think he’ll be able to get deep into sets as well as he’s serving. Rublev struggles returning at times, and isn’t the fastest player on tour by any means. Still, we’re talking about a man who knows the secret. The secret of the smash. Rublev in 4.
Ruud Albot : Casper Ruud just kept coming against Tommy Paul, and earned errors. It was a really good comeback, but one that he made by not changing anything at all. He plays so disciplined and he’s so physically strong that really someone can either beat him for an entire match, or can’t beat him at all. Albot benefitted from O’Connell playing one of the worst matches I’ve seen in a while. He was extremely passive, didn’t move his feet well, and made a ton of errors. For a guy who thrives on not making errors (he’s a pusherrrrr), this was a bad loss and since Albot doesn’t exactly hit you off the court, it took a long time. OC had his chances to win every single set, but just couldn’t hit a shot. In his defense though, Albot served really well as he did against RBA and he got to net and didn’t miss much. The flaw in OC’s game seemed to be generating his own power. He reflected everything beautifully against Struff and was just completely flat against Albot. This is a great result and some nice $ for Albot, and although he isn’t a favorite against Ruud because they’re so similar, he isn’t a guaranteed loss.
Where Albot was safe against O’Connell, he’s in trouble against Ruud. Ruud has the power and fitness to drive the ball through the court. He’s a better returner and server than O’Connell, and has a ton more experience. Ruud will know this is a match where he has to outwork Albot from start to finish, and so he won’t be seemingly expecting errors to come as O’Connell kinda was. Really a nightmarish performance from OC and he still had a chance to steal the 2nd and 3rd sets. I love Albot and he’s serving great, but I think it ends here. Ruud in 4.
Harris McDonald : When you think third round of a major, you think Harris and McDonald. Harris really never deviated from the plan against Popyrin. He keeps the ball on the court, and applies gradual pressure with his forehand. It’s all about outlasting his opponent, and he did that here. On the other side of the fence, Mackie McDonald beat Coric summarily, and benefitted greatly from Coric missing just about every offensive ball he went for. It was a depressing loss for Coric, who seems to have settled on wearing size boy’s small clothing, and although he snuck back the 3rd set, McDonald did not hesitate to snag him in the 4th. I would say that the McDonald that almost beat Dimitrov and had those great wins when he first got on tour is back. He was slated to beat Gasquet last week and did so. He was supposed to beat Cecchinato and did so despite losing the first. Now he’s defeated Coric who played poorly but is still a very tough out as it gets close to the finish line. Mackie is serving well also, and although Harris has outlasted his previous opponents in the rally, Mackie is likely to take the initiative and win rallies rather than be locked into them. It’s weird for the match to be on the weaker players racquet, but McDonald is a good bit more aggressive in the past week and a half, and although Harris’ serve is the biggest weapon on court, the 9 sets of tennis he’s played have to take a toll at some point. McDonald in 4-5.
Krajinovic Medvedev : Oooooo. Kraj struggled a lot against Andujar but never really was in doubt. Medvedev had a similar inevitable but lengthy match with RCB. Bookmakers have made Medvedev a -1500 favorite against Kraj, and well, this shows you that pricing markets is more important than predicting outcomes. Medvedev is one of the favorites to win this tournament, but he has to do the work to get there. Krajinovic won their only previous meeting, and despite his abysmal performances in the past, he’s also turned in some very close battles against the top players. I expect something similar here. He’ll struggle to hold serve because Medvedev is such a good returner, but long rallies and a lot of breaks can be somewhat expected here. This would be a good spot for Medvedev to push the issue a bit, since the next round of Mackie/Harris is a much easier one. Medvedev in 4.
Tsitsipas Ymer : A tale of two cities here. Tsitsipas beat Kokkinakis with a very intelligent yet ignorant performance. It was pretty obvious that Kokkinakis would tire out after the 4th set. His legs were really starting to give out, and all that serving for clutch holds after 6 minute games got to him. If Tsitsipas had been been up against an opponent who was not able to hang for the full 5 sets, it would have been smart to extend rallies and do so. Tsitsipas was in control of this match throughout though, and the passive way he played for a while kinda let this get out of hand. Take nothing away from Kokkinakis’ serving and play; he really did his best and had a chance. Injuries and experience though have kept him a level below Tsitsipas though. Tsitsipas has proven to be able to immediately shank a forehand and lose a tiebreaker anytime the opportunity arises. He began tapping his head in the 5th set after winning rallies. There is nothing intelligent about your opponent getting exhausted, and tapping your head after winning is one of the douchier behaviors on tour. “I’m outsmarting you,” declared the guy who had won significantly more points and games, yet managed to wind up in a 5th set anxiously looking to his box and double-faulting. Anyway, it’s pretty clear and was at the French Open also that despite his troubles with errors, it takes a real high level of ballstriking and physical fitness to beat Tsitsipas in a 3/5 format.
Ymer is a quiet but great story in this. Not expected to beat Hurkacz, but did. Not expected to beat Alcaraz, but did so convincingly. He’s been one of the more promising next-gen players for a while but the results haven’t come, so this is a huge bonus for him to pick up some cash and some points. The more experience he gets, the more he’ll realize how to use his superior athleticism and power to win matches. I think we’re seeing it already, as he’s been driving his backhand and getting into net and creating a lot of havoc. It’s simply a matter at times of being more aggressive for him, as everyone is pretty even from behind the baseline but some players can just overpower an opponent if they take a risk and step into their shots. The downside is you tend to get caught at times if your opponent redirects the ball with angle or depth. The upside is that your opponent is watching you move in and has to adjust their footwork very quickly. This is simple stuff, but Ymer has been executing extremely well this week. So here is a match he shouldn’t really have a chance in. Tsitsipas has a better serve, more experience, a better backhand, and genuinely is one of the top players on tour. He makes errors though, and he plays passively at times. Despite the big 3 having a lock on winning for so long, sports are an equal playing field, and tennis margins are not as large as they appear on paper. Ymer will win a lot of points here, and a lot of games, but how many is a tough question. Tsitsipas was in all of Kokkinakis’ service games, and really only huge serving kept Kokkinakis in that match. The lopsided sets were the real story of the match, and it’ll be tough for Ymer to earn points here. Still, the Coric match and this one and several others are going to have people competing extra hard against Stefanos, and this is what the announers were talking about when they said Sinner should manage his optics a bit better. If the aura around a player is that they bring their A game and don’t make errors or get frustrated, it’s easy for their opponents to be stuck in a “try to earn every point” mentality. This leads to making errors, and trying to play perfect for a whole match. If the aura around a player is that they get frustrated, or make errors, then their opponents stop missing. They look to earn that frustration, and they apply a lot of pressure. This translates to them actually playing their best game, and an error free one. It’s hard to say when and where Tsitsipas will struggle, but as long as he does, matches like this will be tough. Tsitsipas in 4.
Khachanov Berretini : These are some exceptional matches honestly. The WTA has been a cut above the ATP in terms of quality and depth for a few seasons but the ATP is starting to catch up. Khachanov was consistent and crisp against Berankis, and Berretini was just a next level against Machac. Good for Machac to compete the way he did, and he’ll definitely have a future on tour, but right now Berretini really won’t lose to anyone who isn’t at the top level. Khachanov is at that level though. His height makes him an adept returner, and his heavy ball is likely to frustrate Berretini a big since his forehand is better when he’s able to generate his own pace. I think this has the making of a 5 set classic, and Berretini certainly has the better serve, but Khachanov is going to have a decent chance at this. Khachanov in 5.
Fognini De Minaur : With Fognini down 5-1 in the super tiebreak in the 5th set, I decided to go to sleep. I kinda knew Mmoh wasn’t going to do much against Nadal, and Safiullin was fading against Norrie. Fognini decided to punish me for that. He really was in shrug mode, and I felt that Caruso was fighting too hard for every point to lose his advantage. It happened though, AND I DON’T KNOW HOWWWW. So for real, anyone who saw it please advise. I also heard that Fognini exchanged some words with Caruso which I missed also. I regret sleeping and will never do it again.
De Minaur has been getting -1200 price tags and delivering. He really didn’t give Cuevas much, and Cuevas missed a ton of shots. It was evident he didn’t exactly feel he could hang in long rallies here, and it was worth a shot to kinda play offense and see what happened. De Minaur is the perfect opponent to beat Fognini, but it may be tricky. Fogs has beaten PCB and Caruso already in the past week and those are not easy players to hit through. I’m not expecting fatigue to be a factor but I do think that where Caruso surrendered his lead, De Minaur will build on his. Fognini is often all about managing his own image, and I don’t see him having the fight to win this. De Minaur in 4.
Nadal Norrie : Nadal is Rafael Nadal. It is hard to really expect him to ever struggle. Cam Norrie is much improved, and doesn’t really even look like the same person on the court. He’s gained some weight, isn’t cutting his hair, and is winning matches. The matches have been simple so far, and he won’t just disappear here but he will disappear from the draw. Nadal in 3 hard-fought sets.
Barty Alexandrova : Barty is getting me hyped! After a double bagel against Kovinic, she lit it up against Gavrilova in the first set. The second set though was pretty tight at the end, but Barty really looks good for the title. Which makes what I’m going to say now very difficult. This is a very hard match. Alexandrova was playing some great tennis indoors last at the end of last year, and has followed it up here. She’s crushing her backhand, and serving fairly well though they’re not aces. The problem for Barty on tour is always that she falls into playing defensively, and similar to Halep, she thrives on putting a lot of balls back and earning errors. I just feel that she’ll be on the defensive a bit too much in this one, and that Alexandrova doesn’t really play the kind of tennis you can defend against. I’m not going to feel good about saying it, but I think Barty loses here. The lapse against Gavrilova was not something I wanted to see. Alexandrova in 3.
Kontaveit Rogers : Great but standard comeback for Kontaveit against Watson. Rogers on the other hand never really hesitated against Danilovic. For Olga this was a good result but she’ll want to work on her defensive abilities if she wants to get to the next level on tour. The Shelbster has been on a tear this past month, and Kontaveit has been just ok. This is two players with a great deal of power, but one seems to be dragging herself along and the other is improving. Rogers in 3.
Bencic Mertens : Oddly, Belinda Bencic can play Mertens evenly. She’s been terrible, and Kuznetsova almost profited as a result, but Bencic really has the skill and ability to play at the same level as Mertens, which is why her lackluster results are so frustrating. They’re likely to be frustrating here as well, as Mertens quietly makes her way through yet another draw. Mertens in 2.
Muchova Pliskova : Muchova was broken early against Barthel but Mona really isn’t back to her normal self yet. It’ll come, and it’s nice to see her back on tour after some tough injuries. What were they? Idk. But they were tough! Pliskova and Collins had a pretty solid match, with Pliskova losing most of the rallies and Collins failing to really land first serves. That was the difference in the end, Collins simply wasn’t able to hold serve. Muchova is on a roll, and Pliskova has a possibly tougher match on her hands here. Where Collins is very focused on manufacturing her swing and putting the ball in strategy places, Muchova is a natural talent and is happy to rally all day. The power in these two players forehand is going to be really enjoyable to watch. I’m tempted to say that Pliskova’s improved defense is just a matter of focus, and since it’s a major she’ll get through. Muchova has already successfully dealt with Ostapenko’s offense here though, and I think it’ll take a very impressive serving performance from Pliskova to win. Muchova in 3.
Kanepi Vekic : Woooo! Kaia Kanepi has lost 20 lbs I didn’t ever realize she was carrying. She is in incredible shape, and it’s translating to quick wins. Her kick serve bounced over Kenin’s backhand until Kenin just gave up, and it looked like they were just two entirely different levels of tennis player in this one. Kanepi’s offense is legit, and she’ll need it because Vekic comes into this match crushing the ball. She never blinked against Podoroska, and despite Kanepi’s high level Vekic’s offensive offerings were the type where it didn’t really matter who was on the other side of the court. I have to think that even with Vekic’s problems on court the past season that this is her best level, and it’ll continue in this match. She should get at least a set, but Kanepi’s offense isn’t likely to just disappear, so the third set here could be tight. Kanepi in 3.
Brady Juvan : Brady continues to roll. Big fan. Juvan outlasted Sherif’s defense and earned a real hard fought win. For a young player, those wins are huge because they lend belief to your game. I think she’ll play well here against Brady, but Brady is on another level lately. Brady in 2.
Pegula Mladenovic : Pegula made the quickest work of Stosur that probably anyone ever has. She’s a healthy favorite in this contest as well, despite Mladenovic’s great play. The serve will be a major factor here, and if Mladenovic isn’t able to get ahead in rallies this could be a long day. Her play isn’t dictated by emotion though, and she’s able to shrug off losing set and compete. In the end, it’s hard not to think that Pegula is the more complete player, but this is one where I wouldn’t be very comfortable backing either player. Pegula in 3.
Putintseva Svitolina : LET THERE BE RALLIES! Putintseva did extremely well to outlast AVU. Van Uytvank was smoking the ball left and right, and really deserved the win. Her fitness levels have improved, and she should have a very successful indoor season this year. Svitolina and Gauff was a pretty hyped matchup, but Svitolina proved that it’s a “not yet” situation for Gauff on tour still. I lean towards past matchups with these two since their gameplans are pretty similar, and Svitolina has won every single matchup. When rallies go long, her forehand tends to be the biggest weapon, and Putintseva has devolved into just really looping the ball back all day, so this could be her undoing if Svitolina steps into the court. Svitolina has simple, yet consistent offense, which sets her apart from Putsy’s previous victims. Svitolina in 2 long sets.
Hsieh Errani : This is a good one. Hsieh took good advantage of Andreescu’s rust, notching a big name win. Errani played Venus Williams in an odd contest. Venus was down in this match, as Errani’s defending is a bit much for her limited mobility. Venus then fell and twisted her ankle, and was moved to tears, and then continued to play. Down 6-1, 5-0, she just kept going. The game went to duece. Venus could barely walk for much of the second set, and it was kinda hard to watch. The 0-5 duece game became important. Just one more game, thought the announcers. It became obvious that Errani should just let her score. Venus was basically puffing in her serve and hobbling around the court. A strange cling to a match, or an inspiring story of human determination. The crowd got ready to cheer when Venus finally won the game. At this point, Errani hit 3 dropshots in a row, embarassing the injured Williams, and closed out the match. She even dropshotted Venus’ serve. It just felt disrespectful, but it also was really bizarre that Venus kept playing. I think this is likely her final year on tour, and since she’s retiring she wants to play it all out. The reaction to the ankle sprain was more than just frustration. In any event, Venus has been a graceful and quiet champion throughout her career. If this is the end, wow what a story it has been.
Errani actually has won all 3 meetings with Hsieh, and her resurgence in the past year means she is likely to nab this one too. She’s fresh, Hsieh has scar tissue from their previous matchups, and the only thing that’s really in Hsieh’s favor here is that she has played her best tennis this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if that puts her over the finish line, but Errani’s game is well suited to dealing with Hsieh’s defensive offerings, and Hsieh may not have the power to put Errani away. Errani in 3.
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After two weeks of anticipation, Super Bowl 55 is finally here as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida.
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Every aspect of Super Sunday will be analyzed in great detail, from the national anthem to the halftime show to the television commercials that will run during the game. The two teams met on this same field during the regular season, with the Chiefs holding on for a 27-24 victory. This time, the stakes are much higher, with the Lombardi Trophy on the line, as well as potential bragging rights in the battle between generational quarterbacks in Tom Brady of the Buccaneers and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.
Since the game is being played as the COVID-19 continues to rage across the country, both teams will have travel plans and logistical processes unique to this season. Attendance will be limited to 25,000 fans, 7,500 of which will be vaccinated healthcare workers. USA TODAY Sports will have live coverage of the game and all the happenings from Tampa, and we've also answered some key questions about the matchup for anyone looking for last-minute information:
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But anyone from the US currently abroad needn't worry as they can try our No. 1 rated VPN 100% risk-free for 30-days and tune in just like they would at home. super bowl 2021 live stream half time show the weeknd (Image credit: Michael Kovac/FilmMagic) Super Bowl 2021 Halftime Show: who's performing at Super Bowl LV? Following in the footsteps of a sensational performance by Shakira and J-Lo last year that was watched by some 104 million people (and received over 1,300 complaints), The Weeknd has been confirmed to headline the 2021 Super Bowl halftime how. It's expected to go down as the longest halftime show ever at 24 minutes, with Jay-Z and Roc Nation responsible for production of this year's entertainment. For more details, check out our full guide to the 2021 Super Bowl halftime show. Super Bowl 2021 odds and predictions The Kansas City Chiefs are currently installed as the heavy favorites to lift the Lombardi trophy for a second straight season. With arguably the league's most gifted QB in Patrick Mahomes under center, its best TE in Travis Kelce menacing opposing defences, and deadly skill players like Tyreek Hill able to break out for a big play at any time...it's easy to see why. The Bucs are the underdogs, having emerged from the NFC Wild Card picture with big wins over the Saints and Packers to get this far - and few would put another upset past them with GOAT Tom Brady under center. The combination of home field advantage and Brady being Brady somewhat mitigates Tampa's otherwise heavy underdog status, even if the 22,000 fans expected to attended is well below the normal 65,000+ capacity of Ray Jay. Still, while Tampa are a team brimming with the kind of confidence you get when you're led by TB12, most pundits are joining Vegas and the bookmakers in predicting a Chiefs win - though most have it down to be a close game that's likely to come down to the final possession.

If you read the Men's rd 1 write up you can skip the paragraph below and head straight to the writeups. I participate in a picking competition that runs for most of the tournaments on tour and recently u/kuklachert who runs it has set up an automated site to take it to the next level. Check it out if you're interested!
Kukla has taken the time to put together a really great and easy-to-use site to automate his tennis picking competitons. The Australian Open will be the first contest this site is public for, so if you're looking for a fun way to compete against your friends and predict tennis without losing money to shady books, check it out 🐢. Just sign up (totally free to join and compete), join the Australian Open comp, and start picking. The site automatically tracks all your results, and maintains a leaderboard. The chat (runs thru discord) is a great place to hang out while you're watching, and there are even some small cash prizes for the top 3 finishers. If you like picking tennis, or tennis, or cash, or prizes, or turtles, or turtles as prizes, or strawberries, or cookies, or tennis, then this is the site for you <3. Check it out here, and remember since it's new feedback is always welcome
Australian Open Picking Competition
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Barty Kovinic : Rust is apparently not a thing for Ashleigh Barty. The loveable nugget from Australia took an entire year off from the tour due to Covid concerns, but started off this year as she does most years, by making the finals of the inaugural event. She has looked just as good as she ever was this week, and in the spot where she was likely to stagger against Bouskova (who was playing some excellent tennis in the 2nd and 3rd set) she was able to steady herself despite visible frustration. Although she has a finals left against a peak-form Muguruza, Barty’s fitness has never come into question, and since the WTA plays the 2/3 format, she shouldn’t really struggle with fatigue in the early rounds.
Kovinic has been a really consistent performer in early rounds on tour the past season or so, and she represents a very consistent baseliner who generally beats the players she’s supposed to. Barty just doesn’t give up the easy errors though, and will be sharp following some good matches this week. In Barty’s past as well as Osaka’s and Serena’s is losing sets in early rounds of majors, but here I think she will have ample time to right the ship even if she does go down an early break. Barty in 2.
Gavrilova Sorribes Tormo : This is a tough match for both players. Gavrilova struggled with injury for a while, but despite the lopsided scores against Serena this past week she played well. There are a lot of quality baseliners on the tour so the fact that these two stand out as very consistent is a testament to how hard they work on court. Gavrilova plays a bit more offense, but hasn’t really had a ton of wins. Tormo has won a bunch of matches, but lately is starting to slump a little. Bookmakers have this as a pickem, and I agree. It’s hard to see either player really pulling away here, and so the winner will have to be decided by who plays the big points better. Gavrilova has a slightly better serve, but Tormo makes a ton of noise on every shot and it’s fairly obvious that outlasting her opponent and outworking them is her intent. If Gavrilova loses it’ll be to rust. Simple shots into the net, and offensive opportunities sent long because of Tormo’s defense pressure. If she converts these, she should win as Tormo is unlikely to deviate. Gavrilova in 3.
Krejcikova Zheng : This is one where I disagree with the line as set. Krejcikova has had one of the quietest yet best years of her career. No major buzz, no discussions of her future from announcers, but sets taken off top players and cohesive beatdowns of players for entire matches. There was a match I watched last year against I believe Azarenka where she didn’t miss a shot for an entire set. For her to be only a mild favorite against Zheng I can really only chalk up to these being somewhat unknown talents to the general betting public and to Zheng’s ranking being a touch higher. I expect Krejcikova to continue to improve, and Zheng losing to Begu in 3 last week is understandable, but that was a matchup she had won in the past so her confidence has to be a bit under duress. Krejcikova in 2.
Trevisan Alexandrova : Unstoppable force immovable object type matchup. Trevisan is slated to lose almost every match she plays but she never alters her game. She keeps the ball in play in and is able to convert big unexpected shots on her forehand when you least expect it. The sort of Nadal above the head forehand means it’s tough to tell when she’s going to go down the line. Her attitude is great and her fight is inspiring. Overall though, she’s not currently going to overwhelm too many opponents. Losing to Petkovic isn’t great, as she does give you long stretches of errors at times. Across the net from her now is also Alexandrova, who just hit through Halep the previous week and is on an absolute tear. Alexadrova is always a pretty big favorite in early rounds, and she will be here also even though Trevisan is one of my favorite new competitors. Just making gets and attacking the backhand won’t be enough here for Trevisan. Alexandrova in 2.
Sasnovich Kontaveit : “This is as good a spot for Sasnovich to beat Kontaveit as she’ll likely see on tour.” That was my first thought when I saw this matchup. Kontaveit still has a semifinals to play today against Sakkari, and given how big she hits, fatigue could be a factor. Checking their history though, Sasnovich has won all but one of their contests so I really underrated her chances in the matchup. She even beat her last year at this exact event. I did bit of scoreboard watching this week also and caught Kontaveit having a bit more trouble than she should have with Mattek-Sands. It’s a bit puzzling since Kontaveit has such a dynamic game, but Sasnovich has a good chance to take this. Sasnovich in 3.
Watson Kr. Pliskova : Heather Watson has one of the widest spectrums of play on the WTA. She’s a great server and strings together at least one finals run each year, but in between she loses in straight sets to a number of opponents. Krystina Pliskova on the other hand never really makes the big splash, but wins a lot of matches and is a pretty steady fixture on tour. This is a serving battle and in serving battles the X factor is often who moves better in rallies. Pliskova’s backhand is heavy and she plays a game similar to Delbonis where more effort goes into the shot to try to avoid the ball being redirected, but she’s a bit slow. Watson is actually quite quick for a server, and given her history of notching wins against Pliskova, and the pickem line set by bookmakers, I lean towards her having a good chance to advance here. Watson in 3.
Rogers Jones : Shelbyyyyyyyy! Rogers has really blossomed in the past year and a half, and it’s good to see her finally notching wins on tour. She’s worked hard on her fitness and it’s resulting in greater court coverage. Francesca Jones looked amazing in qualifiers, and was crushing the ball early last week against Podoroska, but it’s clear that at this stage of her career, she needs time and control of rallies to really thrive. Rogers hits a heavy ball with a less exaggerated but similar motion to Madison Keys, and the time that she takes away from her opponents will prove to be the difference here. Podoroska punished Jones by redirecting her shots and the extra quality of pace coming back was often the undoing of Jones. I think Jones has a bright future, but she’ll need some help from the draws going forward to rise up the rankings. Rogers in 2.
Martic Danilovic : I am a big Petra Martic fan, but there is something lacking from her game sometimes. She started slow against Lapko, and never really threatened against Rogers. She should win this match, but Danilovic is a promising player and she’ll make Martic work for it. Her loss last week to Greet Minnen wasn’t a great scoreline, but Danilovic broke serve a few times and Minnen really came into this even sharp. I think this goes three, and Martic will need to control the tempo of the game in order to win because this is a very tricky spot for her. Martic in 3.
Bencic Davis : Woof. Bencic really has phoned in some performances lately. She’s got the game to win tournaments but really can’t find victories a good portion of the time. A quickish loss to Cirstea doesn’t mean the end of the world since Sorana is playing great tennis, but these are matches Bencic should win. A relative gift here from the draw since Lauren Davis doesn’t really overwhelm anyone, but Bencic will need to appear and compete to make her 2-0 advantage against Davis 3-0. This is a similar matchup to Martic’s where the favorite should find a way to win but the challenger absolutely will if they struggle on offense. Bencic in 3 or it could be a long year.
Strycova Kuznetsova : Strycova lost to Mattek-Sands last week which isn’t a real problem since hardcourt isn’t her best surface and Mattek-Sands presents a unique and frustrating challenge by getting to net so often. Rushing opponents who haven’t really had a ton of matchplay is a decent plan, and it paid off. Coming into this there’s not a lot of reason to think Strycova has anything wrong, but no real reason to think she’ll dominate this matchup either. Kuznetsova started off reeling off games against Brady, but the wind slowed down her ball and she really folded in the second set. Understandable, as Brady is really a top tier opponent, but not the kind of fight that makes me think she’s going to dominate Strycova. I still expect Kuznetsova’s baseline prowess to give her a pretty good chance to win here, but that it will be close since these two know each other so well and are towards the ends of their careers. Kuznetsova in 3.
Zhu Osuigwe : Lin Zhu has not been crushing worlds on tour, but Osuigwe is not quite read for the tour. Her AO qualifying draw was the easiest one offered, but beating Buzarnescu in the finals is still a great win for her. The junior standout is going to be a big question mark in any significant stage on tour, and although her and Zhu have similar quality games at the moment, it is more likely that the junior falters here. Zhu is very consistent and I give her the tiniest edge at the moment. Zhu in 3.
Mertens Fernandez : Mertens is my favorite. This is common knowledge. I don’t believe in elfs. That would be silly. But if I did. And they lived among us. And they were adorable. And they played really skillful tennis. I’m just saying. I’m just saying.
Fernandez really has some tough draws lately, and I hope the talented junior gets more matches that are not so very unwinnable soon. She showed what she can do by beating Sloane Stephens unmercifully last week, but Sloane is just shrugging and picking up checks at this point so I would expect Fernandez to want to play some 50-100 range talent soon. Mertens is a bit too stable from the baseline and will be able to move Fernandez well. Fernandez thrives on being lefty and exposing her opponents movement, but will be at a power disadvantage here. It just seems like barring a very bad day from Mertens, that this is a bit of a bad matchup for Fernendez. Elf in 2.
Ostapenko Muchova : There are elfs and there are dwarfs. Jelena Ostapenko is a cat swatting things off a table. You do not know why she does it and she is not likely to stop. There is something very reassuring about the singular approach Ostapenko takes to tennis, and going for winners every shot has netted her some very big results, but she doesn’t bring the best attitude to the bad times. Muchova plays one of the best rounded games on tour, and I’m a bit surprised that she’s not more of a favorite. Her defending is pretty darn special at times, and I think that Ostapenko will struggle with timing since Muchova can hang with some pretty big hitting. I think Muchova’s conditioning is a bit better also. Muchova in 3.
Cocciaretto Barthel : Cocciaretto is inching up the rankings nicely, and this is a great spot for her. Barthel has some talent, but being off the tour for so long has set her back a bit and it could be a bit longer before she really starts to win matches. This is winnable as Cocciaretto isn’t just going to serve you out, but she’ll have an edge from the baseline and has to know this is a good opportunity to snag ranking points against an unsteady opponent. Cocciaretto in 2-3.
Bogdan Collins : Tough opener for Bogdan, who crushes worlds in qualifers and early rounds, but doesn’t really have the marquee victories next to her name that would make her a good option to win this contest. Collins played extra sharp last week, and had a great 2020. Her serving has sort of improved, and given Serena’s resurgence, splitting sets with her hints that Collins’ peak performance of 2020 is her new level. Bogdan is very good, but not dangerous enough to shut Danielle out of the match. Collins in 2.
Pliskova Paolini : Pliskova matches are the most random events generally. Sometimes she smokes everything without blinking and looks like she’ll win the whole tournament. Sometimes it’s obvious she doesn’t really feel like making a full effort and her opponents get close. I think the moment is what dictates her effort, and she’ll put in enough effort here to beat Paolini. Jasmine has kinda thrived lately on just sticking around in matches, and hopefully Pliskova’s team will make it clear to her that this is a player who believes they can win this match. Pliskova in 2 but if she starts missing this could take 3.
Inglis Kenin : Maddison is a nice player, and it’s great for her to get a chance in a major, but this isn’t a lucky draw at all. Kenin is a frontrunner to go deep in any hardcourt event she enters. Super emphatic walking all day. Kenin in 2.
Kanepi Sevastova : Kaia Kanepi was formerly a player who’d go deep in the 3-4 tournaments a year that she showed up to, but in recent years she’d struggled to string wins together. A brilliant run this past week is likely to continue, but she has had some shoulder injuries in the past so she’s a mild question mark in this first round. I expect to see some kinesiology tape on her, and although Sevastova is a frustrating opponent we should see Kanepi able to control the rallies. Kanepi in 2.
McHale Podoroska : Christina McHale is a good baseliner. I feel like sometimes I say everyone is that when they’re just kinda generic. The truth is none of these players are generic. Tennis is ridiculously difficult and there just aren’t a myriad number of ways to play it and win unless you’re incredibly talented or physically gifted. Everything looks like pushing when you don’t have an edge in ballstriking. Pushing won’t work here though. Podoroska looked lost on hardcourt a few months ago. She even looked to be struggling early against Jones. She looked like she was outclassed at times against Kvitova. She continues to improve though and she has a great mind for tennis. This is a straightforward match and if she isn’t pressured Podoroska moves the ball too well to lose this. Podoroska in 2.
Vekic Wang : Donna Vekic just hasn’t won matches. She has a great game and looks like she’s a threat to win the event for a set, and then she just finds herself a bit behind the pace and loses. It has to be a mental struggle to really believe she’s going to turn it around at this point, and add in that here she’s expected to win but was beaten by Wang in their only previous meeting in Acapulco. How much tennis are we really playing at an event in Acapulco? I’m not quite sure. I do know that Vekic took a set off Pironkova last week, and she’ll have ample chances to employ her offense against Wang. This is a must-win for Vekic, and I think she’ll shrug off her struggles here. Vekic in 3.
Brady Bolsova Zadoinov : Brady is a fudge brownie in a world of regular brownies. There is something so pure about the way Ernie and Bert’s human cousin approaches tennis. It is a ton of fun to watch her forehand flutter through the air, and her backhand was never great but she has made great improvements to the length she gets on it and minimizing the slice habit has been great for her results. Bolsova had a couple nice wins recently to get her back on track on tour but this is relatively unwinnable. Windy conditions are really the only thing that’s going to throw people off this week in Australia and the wind honestly benefits players like Brady who can put a lot of shape/junk on the ball. Brady in 2.
Brengle Rodionova : Brengle seems like she’s a pretty big favorite here. Rodionova is benefitting a bit from wildcards at this point in her career, and she isn’t really a big threat to beat most of the top 100. Brengle in 2.
Sherif Pacquet : Mayar Sherif is a new name but she really is an effective winner. Her best attribute is durability so far. She extends rallies and hustles and hits a solid ball which is enough against lower tier opponents. As she gets more comfortable on tour I’m sure we’ll see more of her offense, but her plan A is best against this particular opponent. Chloe Paquet has one of the best T serves on tour, and goes for it almost every time. It’s a simple motion, and it nets a lot of cheap points since she serve and volleys often. Her marathon match with Destanee Aiava though illustrated that a good defender can make things very tense. I don’t consider Sherif such a big favorite as the -300 line she’s offered at, but given she’s a good bit better than Aiava at a similar strategy so she is likely to find the finish line here. Pacquet is great, but it’s really difficult to win matches when you have to earn every point, and she will here. Sherif in 3.
Konta Juvan : Jo Konta is a tricky one to predict. She sometimes looks very solid but struggles in extended rallies with errors. Begu was in good form so her losing there isn’t a problem, but there isn’t much to take away from her win against Pera. Pera was double-faulting at a really nonstop rate, and when that’s going on players beat themselves. Kaja Juvan is a tough test here, and she’s already snagged some good names and faces on tour. Coming through qualifying at the AO and also almost snagging Swiatek last week are good steps, but beating Konta may be a cut above what she’s accomplished so far. I expect Juvan to win a set, but maybe not the match. Konta in 3.
Azarenka Pegula : This doesn’t seem fair. Azarenka was the best player in 2020 for my money but that run has to cool off a bit. Her win against Putintseva shows she’s still focused, but her withdrawal to Kontaveit lends a bit of mystery to her quality heading into this match. Pegula had a decent week almost defeating Kenin, and this will be a good quality affair since Pegula really has good energy at the baseline and a solid forehand. I think she’ll struggle to find points though if Azarenka is full strength as Vika’s defending and counterpunching is a big strength of hers. Azarenka in 2.
Aiava Stosur : Couple wildcards playing in the first round. Destanee Aiava is clearly very talented and has great defending. She extends points well and her serve is passable. I’m not really sure how much tennis training she’s doing though as she’s a tiny tiny tiny small very minimal little bit heavier than she might want to be to really compete. She’s still young and there’s no reason she has to be completely committed to tennis or train her brains out anyway, just an area I think could make a match like this a clear victory rather than a “well she should win”. Sam Stosur hasn’t really played much winning tennis the past few seasons. She’s basically retired but still enjoying the sport the way I see it. Still has a great serve, a fast forehand, and can compete a bit but I don’t really see her fistpumping and getting too excited over it. This is one where Aiava’s war with Pacquet means she is able to outlast an offensive talent, but where Stosur’s experience may make her a bit more effective with her opportunities than Pacquet. Tough to really decide, and with Azarenka or Pegula waiting in round two, this is one I’m ok getting wrong. Stosur in 2.
Hibino Sharma : Hibino has climbed the rankings nicely again after some tough relatively winless seasons. She hasn’t played since the French which is a puzzle, and she’s sat at a pickem here against Sharma who really hasn’t won a ton of matches but has played some great isolated sets of tennis. Sharma is one of the few players who took a set from Kanepi this past week and since Hibino should be a bit rusty and is generally not an overwhelming talent but more of a counterpuncher this is a good chance for Astra. Sharma in 3.
Sakkari Mladenovic : Maria Sakkari is a top 10 player for the foreseeable future. She works too hard on conditioning to be outlasted, and the more comfortable she gets on tour the fewer errors she makes. Mladenovic is on a bad slide but is too talented to ever really crash off the tour. This is a rough draw, and she’s unlikely to come up with enough offense to beat Sakkari. Sakkarin in 2.
Stephens Putintseva : Sloane Stephens is already retired, and tennis is her retirement home. I don’t begrudge an athlete who’s accomplished so much some time off, and it really makes predicting her matches a bit easier. Sloane has the talent to beat anyone and hits the ball heavy when she’s playing well. She can drag her way through a match playing poorly, but the peak peformances that netted her titles are few and far between at this point.
Putintseva has been winning when she’s supposed to, and is very solid from the baseline. She might play the most error free tennis of anyone on tour in some stretches, and she’ll be able to frustrate Stephens. Putintseva in 2.
Burel Van Uytvanck : Clara Burel is very good, but like most junior standouts much of your future on tour depends on who you draw in the first round. Against a more conservative player or even someone with a smaller offense, Burel is going to have a good shot at winning. She drew Giorgi last week though and showed that while she’s a very talented player, she can’t really counterpunch nonstop during a match. This will be the ask here as well, and as well as Van Uytvanck played last week, the only issue working against her is how quickly she imploded against Muguruza when the ball started coming back.
AVU really plays nonstop offense, and can hit herself out of matches quickly if her opponent gets the ball deep. She’ll have a much easier time holding serve than Burel though, and I think in a tiebreakelate set situation Van Uytvanck’s serving will be a big plus as well as her experience. Burel will at some point be better than AVU, it’s just not quite there yet. Close match, but AVU in 3.
Teichmann Gauff : This is kinda puzzling. These two played first round in last week’s event as well, and Gauff didn’t do anything special but never really seemed like she was in danger. It was a 3 setter, and there were momentum shifts, but it seems like Teichmann has to do an awful lot to win a point and Gauff is able to just defend and eventually overwhelm her opponents. Pushing isn’t my favorite, but it’s hard to say that Teichmann is going to turn that result around in a week. Gauff in the same 3.
Svitolina Bouzkova : There are some really tough first rounds in this section of the draw. Svitolina is always a threat to go on a tear. Her defending is second to none and her forehand is solid when she’s confident. The problem across the net is that Bouzkova brings a similar level of defending, so this is likely to come down to who makes errors when forcing offense. Bouzkova didn’t struggle much to move the ball against Barty, but she played 2 good sets and one bad one. It’ll be a similar issue here. I think she can win a set, but winding up in a third set against Svitolina and having to come up with 6 games of winners is very tough. The upset is possible, but will require a really comprehensive performance. Svitolina in 3.
Andreescu Buzarnescu : A lucky loser spot will get Buzarnescu a nice paycheck. After struggling with some knee injuries, Andreescu finally makes her return to the tour. It’s tough to know what to really expect, but Buzarnescu has struggled to win matches on hardcourt, and it’s likely that Andreescu will have ample chances to win here. It’ll be interesting to see how she’s playing after such an extended break. Andreescu in 2.
Hsieh Pironkova : Hsieh pretty much gave up against Van Uytvanck last week and was having clean winners hit off her serve. She’s a fan favorite, but hasn’t been winning matches. Pironkova on the other hand, has pretty much beaten everyone on tour she’s faced since returning. I think that run continues here. Pironokova in 2.
Flipkens V. Williams : Flipkens wins just when you think she can’t. I think this is one of those spots where she can’t. Venus Williams isn’t going to beat the top half of the tour, but she’s still a pretty adept server and if she doesn’t have to move a lot, she’s a very tough out in early rounds. Flipkens thrives on a slice-heavy game and generally nets most of her wins against overzealous youth. Venus is neither, and should have the ability to win here. I don’t agree with her -318 pricetag, but I think her price is often inflated. Williams in 3.
Wang Errani : There’s always a good chance that Wang gets the job done in straight sets. She really performs well as a favorite, and rarely wins when she isn’t. Here she has a tricky opponent in Errani. Errani wins this matchup on clay, but hardcourt leaves her a bit lacking in big weapons. Wang hits big, but lost to Paolini last week which is a similar caliber of player to Errani. Errani is coming off a qualifying run in the AO, and lost a decider this past week to an in-form Ostapenko. This is a similar opponent and I’d expect a very close match. Wang winning here puts her in good shape since she can defeat Venus in round two, but the upset isn’t out of the question since Wang was able to basically get outlasted last week. Errani in 3.
Voundrousova Peterson : Marketa managed to wake up this past week, and because of that she’s probably going to win this match. She found good length on her forehand, and when she’s in a rhythm she’s very tiring to beat. Peterson has a great ability to get to the 5-5 point in matches, but hasn’t closed them out of late. There’s nothing overpowering in her game and you kinda need that to beat Voundrousova. Voundrousova in 2.
Marino Birrell : Marino did well to qualify for the AO, and playing a wild card ranked in the 700s is a good reward. Since I know Marino is reading this, I’m picking her. Marino in 2.
Tig Cirstea : Tig is one of the toughest fighters on tour. Some might say her attitude on court is, awful. Her play reflects how hard she’s fighting though, and she acknowledged in some interviews that she gets too intense at times. She hasn’t really found her hardcourt game yet, and Cirstea really has in the past few weeks. Tig will make this a long match, but it’s Cirstea’s offense vs Cirstea’s mistakes in this one. Most pro’s win that battle when it’s availalble. Cirstea in 3.
Minnen Kvitova : Tough draw for Minnen who came out firing last week and looks to have a bright future on tour. Kvitova is occasionally caught off guard but she tends to do well in serving battles and this is one. Kvitova in 2.
Muguruza Gasparyan : Muguruza is ballin. As I’m typing this she’s struggling to find easy points against Barty, but this week she has looked at her best. Two opponents have gotten 0 games in a set against her already, and that spells trouble for Gasparyan. Muguruza’s losses on tour are usually hard to watch and she looks tentative while makes tons of simple errors. This tells me that generally the difference in her game is how much training she’s doing and how much tennis she’s playing. For now, it’s a lot of both. Gasparyan is pretty darn good and a lucky loser spot is fair since she really does belong in the main draw, but this is toooooo tough. Muguruza in 2.
Samsonova Badosa : Tough tough first round. Liudmila Samsonova sorta reminds me of Rybakina and Sabalenka. She crushes the ball on both wings, she moves well, but her breakout performances were followed by a bunch of tough draws and losses. I think many players just get a bit solved by the tour, and Samsonova will have to wait a while to really announce herself. This is a good opportunity for her, and Badosa. Badosa is one of the ball-machines currently operating on tour, and really doesn’t give much up once the rally is started. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup, and although I think Samsonova has a higher ceiling, at this point Badosa should get the job done. Badosa in 3.
Diyaz Zidansek : Zarina Diyas is a player that always seems encouraging, but doesn’t win a lot. Her speed is off the charts, but her game is really geared towards that 2017-18 stretch where there weren’t really dominant players offensively and a lot of matches were about outlasting the other player. The shoutout format is really back now, and I think Diyas has to make some adjustments. Zidansek is mostly a clay talent, but she has better options and variety than Diyas. I wonder if anyone is reading this. Diyas beat Zidansek in 2018, but hasn’t really beaten many players since. Zidansek had some nice wins against Brady and Fernandez recently, so I’d lean towards her. Zidansek in 3.
Pera Kerber : Bernarda Pera winds up in a third set pretty much every time she steps on the court, but this past week in the windy conditions her serve left her bigtime. It was frustrating to watch and she never really found the motion against Konta. I don’t expect this to improve during a match against a very offensive returner in Angelique Kerber. Kerber looked sharp on isolated points this week, and I think she’ll be able to break early and often against Pera. Kerber in 2.
Petkovic Jabeur : Petkovic hit through Trevisan which means she’s at the top of her game. The top of her game though, is at the bottom of Jabeur’s. Since Petkovic is such a great athlete, her ballstriking can make this close for a bit, but Jabeur’s serving is top level and even though she plays a bit impatient, she’s likely to close this out even if she gives up an early deficit. Jabeur in 3.
Hibi Schmiedlova : This is a good one. Hibi is on a roll stretching 5 wins in a row to start the season prior to going down to Mertens (no shame there) this week. Schmiedlova has been really solid since coming back to the tour and has pulled a couple upsets most notably besting Azarenka at the Frenchest Open. Schmiedlova is likely to be the bigger hitter here but with both coming in in decent form, this should go down to the wire. Schmiedlova in 3.
Hercog Garcia : I’m not sure why I always think Hercog is going to win, but I do. Part of the equation here is that Caroline Garcia has turned in some of the most random poor performances I’ve ever seen, and Hercog pretty much always plays well even if she doesn’t really have the weapons to beat a top defender. It’s time to stop doubting though. Garcia has won all of the previous meetings between these two, and she played ok last week. Garcia in 2.
Pavlyuchenkova Osaka : Tough first round for Osaka as Pavs isn’t really interesting in what name is across the net, but pretty winnable. Osaka can lose any match, but can win any match also and that tends to be her most frequent result of late. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Kuzmova : Sabalenka struggles with strange losses less and less as she matures. I think she’ll add a good number of indoor titles this year, but her outdoor game will take another year or so. Hard to pick against her here though. Sabalenka in 2.
Boulter Kasatkina : Katie Boulter snatched wiiiiiiiiiigs last week. It was really a great run (defeating Kalinskaya and Gauff) and she looked like she might even defeat Osaka. That kind of quality is necessary, as Kasatkina is pretty efficient during the rally. She doesn’t have any clear holes in her game, and generally plays error free. Her only real struggle is with opponents that have power and Boulter doesn’t really crush the ball. Expect long rallies in this and if I’m being honest I’m not sure what to expect for an outcome. Boulter had a much better week, but Kasatkina is way more established. Boulter should probably lose, but Kasatkina has had some very extended struggles in the past on hardcourt. I’m guessing, but Boulter in 3.
Cornet Savinykh : Cornet is likely to have an edge here. She’s been just average in 2021 but is a very good defender and extends rallies in a manner that new players on tour generally struggle with. She’ll likely find errors from Savinykh but admittedly she is a new commodity and I’m mostly going off her results so far. Cornet in 2 but I’ll be watching most of this one to get an idea baout Savinykh’s game.
Li Zhang : Ann Li has basically surprised everyone this week (and by everyone I mean me). I really liked her game last year, and I find that she moves the ball around the court in a very composed manner and makes good decision as to when to get in to net. I didn’t expect her to beat Cirstea though, and I think that lends itself strongly to her beating Zhang here. Zhang received a 1 and 1 beating from Muchova last week and I don’t think she’s going to turn it around her against a surging talent. Li in 2.
Riske Potapova : Alison Riske hasn’t played since last season, and it’s going to be pretty tough to figure out where her level is given how inconsistent she’s played in the past. A lot of errors and a lot of serving struggles are interspersed with rare stretches where she really lands her shots and is able to overwhelm her opponents. I’m not sure if I put Potapova’s results above hers really. Potapova is the type to win 1 round at every event she goes to, but never multiple matches. Rusty inconsistency against consistent underperforming is a tough one to figure out. I lean Potapova in 3.
Bonaventure Babos : Ysaline is a fine player, but appears on tour a bit less than is really necessary to get up the rankings. This is a good chance in terms of name of opponent, as Babos has had some bad seasons, but not in terms of timing, since Babos is playing her best and most motivated tennis in the past few weeks. Her qualifying run was impressive, and although she lost to Garcia last week she acquitted herself well. Babos in 3.
Begu Stojanovic : Begu was really the most improved player at this week’s warmup events. I don’t see a reason given her quality of play to think that she won’t play a good level this week as well. Stojanovic was pretty convincing beating Sherif, but Begu is a big step up from a defensive qualifier. Begu in two.
Siegemund Williams : Laura Siegemund has really fought nonstop, and her reward is a pretty comfortable ranking on tour for at least a year. There were times where her knee injuries looking like they’d cancel her permanently, but she really is a joy to watch when she’s playing well. This is bad timing to play Serena Williams though. There isn’t really a good time, but her mobility suffered a bit in her return last season and she seemed a bit vulnerable at times. 2021 is here though, and Serena has shed any extra weight she was carrying, and looks very sharp to start the season. It takes a lot of hard training and dieting to do what she did, and there’s reason to believe that she might be able to get that long-sought after major title this year. Her serving looked excellent this past week, and although she withdrew with a shoulder injury, high profile tennis players injury withdrawals are often more opportunistic than tragic. Williams in 2.
Swiatek Rus : Iga Swiatek isn’t really confident on hardcourt yet. A lot of junior standouts get their first real results on clay, and she’s no different. Her talent though is something that won’t really be held back for too much longer. At this point it’s a question of when, not if. Swiatek in 2.
Shvedova Giorgi : Nice to see Yaraslava back on tour,but this is a pretty tough first round. Giorgi is playing pretty well, and should take advantage of Shvedova’s rust. Giorgi in 2.
Ferro Siniakova : Popcorn time. Fiona Ferro’s hardcourt results are night and day from her clay results. During her match with Rogers last week, she basically figured out hardcourt tennis within the match, but couldn’t really stick to the plan. I would expect her team to work on that, and I think that given Siniakova’s streaky play, that Ferro will have a chance to start winning on hc here. On the other side of the fence, Siniakova has lost some matches, but has competed and won against a much higher tier of player than Ferro. She has to sit as a slight favorite, and the question here is similar to Swiatek; when will Ferro put the puzzle pieces together. I expect it to happen in this match. Ferro in 3.
Zvonareva Rybakina : This is a brilliant matchup but unfortunate for whoever loses. Zvonareva served better than she has in a while last week, and her baseline game is always very accomplished. Rybakina is really good enough to win a major already, and the real trouble is just getting through these difficult early rounds. I guess that’s a problem for everyone, but a peaking Zvonareva is a difficult test. Rybakina has to sit as a favorite, but if she starts slowly she’ll lose this match. Still, Rybakina has the talent to withstand Zvonareva’s onslaught and her serving is just as good. Rybakina in 3.
Kudermetova Kostyuk : Kudermetova has a big edge coming into this, having just defeated Kostyuk at the event in Abu Dhabi. Kostyuk has been garnering some very high prices, and is expected to really have an impact on tour soon. The trouble came for her last week with the windy conditions in Melbourne. She’s a very clean ballstriker and needs to be able to commit to her swings. This is an exceptionally tough match to call, and the match in Abu Dhabi was decided by a single break. I think Kostyuk can turn this around, but her performance against Brady wasn’t very inspiring. Someone in 3.
Gracheva Blinkova : Blinkova’s been struggling to notch wins, and Gracheva won their previous meeting. This is another very tight contest, but it’s hard to say that Gracheva doesn’t have a small edge here. Gracheva in 3.
Doi Tomljanovic : Misaki really isn’t the most dominant player but she presents a very difficult test if her opponent lacks power. Ajla Tomljanovic is a great talent but hasn’t really taken the next step on tour. It’s easy to think that her tough results on tour mean she’ll never get there, but she does play some tight matches against most opponents. I think she’ll get a boost from playing at home here, and while Doi is good for a few breaks of serve against most players, Ajla will really just need to keep errors to a minimum to get across the finish line here. Tomljanovic in 3.
Cabrera Halep : Cabrera is a good talent, but I am quite sleepy at this point, so Halep in 2.