Old Austin Tales: Forgotten Video Arcades of The 1970s & 80s
In the late 1980s and early 1990s when I was a young teen growing up in far North Austin, it was a popular custom for many boys in the neighborhood to assemble at the local Stop-N-Go after school on a regular basis for some Grand Champion level tournaments in Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat. The collective insistence of our mothers and fathers to get out of the house, get some exercise, and refrain from playing NES or Sega on the television only led us to seek out more video games at the convenience store down the road. Much allowance and lunch money was spent as well as hours that should have been devoted to homework among the 8 or 9 regular boys in attendance, often challenging each other to 'Best of 5' matches. I myself played Dhalsim and SubZero, and not very well, so I rarely ever made it to the 5th match. The store workers frequently kicked us out for the day only to have us return when they weren't working the counter anymore if not the next day. There is something about that which has been lost in the present day. While people can today download the latest games on Steam or PSN or in the app store on your smartphone, you can't just find arcade games in stores and restaurants like you used to be able to. And so the fun of a spontaneous 8 or 10 person multiplayer video game tournament has been confined to places like bars, pool halls, Pinballz or Dave&Busters. But in truth it was that ubiquity of arcade video games, how you could find them in any old 7-11 or Laundromat, which is what killed the original arcades of the early 1980s before the Great Crash of 1983 when home video game consoles started to catch up to what you saw in the arcade. I was born in the mid 1970s so I missed out on Pong. I was kindergarten age when the Golden Age of Arcade Games took place in the early 1980s. There used to be a place called Skateworld on Anderson Mill Road that was primarily for roller skating but had a respectable arcade in its own right. It was there that I honed my skills on the original Tron, Pac Man, Galaga, Pole Position, Defender, and so many others. In the 1980s I remember visiting all the same mall arcades as others in my age group. There was Aladdin's Castle in Barton Creek Mall, The Gold Mine in Highland, and another Gold Mine in Northcross which was eventually renamed Tilt. Westgate Mall also had an arcade but being a north austin kid I never went there until later in the mid 1990s. There were also places like Malibu Grand Prix and Showbiz Pizza and Chuck-E-Cheeze, all of which had fairly large arcades for kids which were the secondary attraction. If you're of a certain age you will remember Einsteins and LeFun on the Drag. They were there for a few decades going back way before the Slacker era. Lesser known is that the UT Student Union basement used to have an arcade that was comparable to either or both of those places. Back in the pre-9/11 days it was much easier to sneak in if you even vaguely looked like you could be a UT student. But there was another place I was too young to have experienced called Smitty's up further north on 183 at Lake Creek in the early 1980s. I never got to go there but I always heard about it from older kids at the time. It was supposed to have been two stories of wall to wall games with a small snack bar. I guess at the time it served a mostly older teen crowd from Westwood High School and for that reason younger kids my age weren't having birthday parties there. It wasn't around very long, just a few years during the Golden Age of Arcades. It is with almost-forgotten early arcades like that in mind that I wanted to share with y'all some examples of places from The Golden Age of the Video Arcade in Austin using some old Statesman articles I've found. Maybe someone of a certain age on here will remember them. I was curious what they were like, having missed out by being slightly too young to have experienced most of them first hand. I also wanted to see the original reaction to them in the press. I had a feeling there was some pushback from school/parent/civic groups on these facilities showing up in neighborhood strip malls or next to schools, and I was right to suspect. But I'm getting ahead of myself. First let's list off some places of interest. Be sure to speak up if you remember going to any of these, even if it was just for some other kid's birthday party. Unfortunately some of the only mentions about a place are reports of a crime being committed there, such as our first few examples. Forgotten Arcade #1 Fun House/Play Time Arcade - 2820 Guadalupe June 15, 1975
ARCADE ENTHUSIASM A gang fight involving 20 30 people erupted early Saturday morning in front of an arcade on Guadalupe Street. The owner of the Fun House Arcade at 282J Guadalupe told police pool cues, lug wrenches, fists and a shotgun were displayed during the flurry. Police are unsure what started the fisticuffs, but one witness at the scene said it pitted Chicanos against Anglos. During the fight the owner of the arcade said a green car stopped at the side of the arcade and witnesses reported the barrel of a shotgun sticking out. The crowd wisely scattered and only a 23-year-old man was left lying on the ground. He told police he doesn't know what happened.
ARCADE ROBBED A former employee of Play Time Arcade, 2820 Guadalupe, was charged Tuesday in connection with the Tuesday afternoon robbery of his former business. Police have issued a warrant for the arrest of Ronnie Magee, 22, of 1009 Aggie Lane, Apt. 306. Arcade attendant Sam Garner said he had played pool with the suspect an hour before the robbery. He told police the man had been fired from the business two weeks earlier. Police said a man walked in the arcade about 2:45 p m. with a blue steel pistol and took $180. Magee is charged with first degree aggravated robbery. Bond was set on the charge at $15,000.
First it was called Fun House and then renamed Play Time a year later. I'm not sure what kind of arcade games beyond Pong and maybe Asteroids they could have had at this place. The peak of the Pinball craze was supposed to be around 1979, so they might have had a few pinball machines as well. A quick search of youtube will show you a few examples of 1976 video games like Death Race. The location is next to Ken's Donuts where PokeBowl is today where the old Baskin Robbins location was for many years. Forgotten Arcade #2 Green Goth - 1121 Springdale Road May 15, 1984
A 23-year-old man pleaded guilty Monday to a January 1983 murder in East Austin and was sentenced to 15 years in prison. Jim Crowell Jr. of Austin admitted shooting 17-year-old Anthony Rodriguez in the chest with a shotgun after the two argued outside the Green Goth, a games arcade at 1121 Springdale Road, on Jan. 23, 1983. Crowell had argued with Rodriguez and a friend of Rodriguez at the arcade, police said. Crowell then went to his house, got a shotgun and returned to the arcade, witnesses said. When the two friends left the arcade, Rodriguez was shot Several weeks ago Crowell had reached a plea bargain with prosecutors for an eight-year prison term, but District Judge Bob Perkins would not accept the sentence, saying it was shorter than sentences in similar cases. After further plea bargaining, Crowell accepted the 15-year prison sentence.
I can't find anything else on Green Goth except reports about this incident with a murder there. There is at least one other report from 1983 around the time of Crowell's arrest that also refer to it as an arcade but reports the manager said the argument started over a game of pool. It's possible this place might have been more known for pool. Forgotten Arcades #3 & #4 Games, Etc. - 1302 S. First St Muther's Arcade - 2532 Guadalupe St August 23, 1983
Losing the magic touch - Video Arcades have trouble winning the money game It was going to be so easy for Lawrence Villegas, a video game junkie who thought he could make a fast buck by opening up an arcade where kids could plunk down an endless supply of quarters to play Pac-Man, Space Invaders and Asteroids. Villegas got together with a few friends, purchased about 30 video games and opened Games, Etc. at 1302 S. First St in 1980. .,--.... For a while, things, went great Kids waited in line to spend their money to drive race cars, slay dragons and save the universe. AT THE BEGINNING of 1982, however, the bottom fell out, and Villegas' revenues fell from $400 a week to $25. Today, Games, Etc. is vacant Villegas, 30, who is now working for his parents at Tony's Tortilla Factory, hasn't decided what he'll do with the building. "I was hooked on Asteroids, and I opened the business to get other people hooked, too," Villegas said. "But people started getting bored, and it wasn't worth keeping the place open. In the end, I sold some machines for so little it made me sick." VILLEGAS ISNT the only video game operator to experience hard times, video game manufacturers and distributors 'It used to be fairly common to get $300 a week from a machine. Now we rarely get more than $100 . Pac-Man's a lost cause. Six months ago, you could resell a Pac-Man machine for $1,600. Now, you're lucky to get $950 if you can find a buyer." Ronnie Roark says. In the past year, business has dropped 25 percent to 65 percent throughout the country, they say. Most predict business will get even worse before the market stabilizes. Video game manufacturers and operators say there are several reasons for the sharp and rapid decline: Many video games can now be played at home on television, so there's no reason to go to an arcade. The novelty of video games has worn off. It has been more than a decade since the first ones hit the market The decline can be traced directly to oversaturation or the market arcade owners say. The number of games in Austin has quadrupled since 1981, and it's not uncommon to see them in coin-operated laundries, convenience stores and restaurants. WITH SO MANY games to choose from, local operators say, Austinites be came bored. Arcades still take in thousands of dollars each week, but managers and owners say most of the money is going to a select group of newer games, while dozens of others sit idle. "After awhile, they all seem the same," said Dan Moyed, 22, as he relaxed at Muther's Arcade at 2532 Guadalupe St "You get to know what the game is going to do before it does. You can play without even thinking about it" Arcade owners say that that, in a nutshell, is why the market is stagnating. IN THE PAST 18 months, Ronnie Roark, owner of the Back Room at 2015 E. Riverside Drive, said his video business has dropped 65 to 75 percent Roark, . who supplied about 160 video games to several Austin bars and arcades, said the instant success of the games is what led to their demise. "The technology is not keeping up with people's demand for change," said Roark, who bought his first video game in 1972. "The average game is popular for two or three months. We're sending back games that are less than five months old." Roark said the market began dropping in March 1982 and has been declining steadily ever since. "The drop started before University of Texas students left for the summer in 1982," Roark said. "We expected a 25 percent drop in business, and we got that, and more. It's never really picked up since then. - "It used to be fairly common to get $300 a week from a machine. Now we rarely get more than $100. 1 was shocked when I looked over my books and saw how much things had dropped." TO COMBAT THE slump, Roark said, he and some arcade owners last year cut the price of playing. Even that didn't help, he said. Old favorites, such as Pac-Man, which once took in hundreds of dollars each week, he said, now make less than $3 each. "Pac-Man's a lost cause," he said. "Six months ago, you could resell a Pac-Man machine for $1,600. Now, you're lucky to get $950 if you can find a buyer." Hardest hit by the slump are the owners of the machines, who pay $3,500 to $5,000 for new products and split the proceeds with the businesses that house them. SALEM JOSEPH, owner of Austin Amusement and Vending Co., said his business is off 40 percent in the past year. Worse yet, some of his customers began returning their machines, and he's having a hard time putting them back in service. "Two years ago, a machine would generate enough money to pay for itself in six months,' said Joseph, who supplies about 250 games to arcades. "Now that same machine takes 18 months to pay for itself." As a result, Joseph said, he'll buy fewer than 15 new machines this year, down from the 30 to 50 he used to buy. And about 50 machines are sitting idle in his warehouse. "I get calls every day from people who want to sell me their machines," Joseph said. "But I can't buy them. The manufacturers won't buy them from me." ARCADE OWNERS and game manufacturers hope the advent of laser disc video games will buoy the market Don Osborne, vice president of marketing for Atari, one of the largest manufacturers of video games, said he expects laser disc games to bring a 25 percent increase in revenues next year. The new games are programmed to give players choices that may affect the outcome of the game, Os borne said. "Like the record and movie industries, the video game industry is dependent on products that stimulate the imagination," Osborne said "One of the reasons we're in a valley is that we weren't coming up with those kinds of products." THE FIRST of the laser dis games, Dragonslayer and Star Wan hit the market about two months ago. Noel Kerns, assistant manager of The Gold Mine Arcade in Northcross Mall, says the new games are responsible for a $l,000-a-week increase in revenues. Still, Kerns said, the Gold Mine' total sales are down 20 percent iron last summer. However, he remain optimistic about the future of the video game industry. "Where else can you come out of the rain and drive a Formula One race car or save the universe?" hi asked. Others aren't so optimistic. Roark predicted the slump will force half of all operators out of business and will last two more years. "Right now, we've got a great sup ply and almost no demand," Roark said. "That's going to have to change before things get- significantly better."
Well there is a lot to take from that long article, among other things, that the author confused "Dragonslayer" with "Dragon's Lair". I lol'd. Anyone who has been to Emo's East, formerly known as The Back Room, knows they have arcade games and pool, but it's mostly closed when there isn't a show. That shouldn't count as an arcade, even though the former owner Ronnie Roark was apparently one of the top suppliers of cabinet games to the area during the Golden Era. Any pool hall probably had a few arcade games at the time, too, but that's not the same as being an arcade. We also learn from the same article of two forgotten arcades: Muthers at 2522 Guadalupe where today there is a Mediterranean food restaurant, and another called Games, Etc. at 1302 S.First that today is the site of an El Mercado restaurant. But the article is mostly about showing us how bad the effects were from the crash at the end of the Golden Era. It was very hard for the early arcades to survive with increasing competition from home game consoles and personal computers, and the proliferation of the games into stores and restaurants. Forgotten Arcades #5 #6 & #7 Computer Madness - 2414 S. Lamar Blvd. Electronic Encounters - 1701 W Ben White Blvd (Southwood Mall) The Outer Limits Amusements Center - 1409 W. Oltorf March 4, 1982
'Quartermania' stalks South Austin School officials, parents worried about effects of video games A fear Is haunting the video game business. "We call it 'quartermania.' That's fear of running out of quarters," said Steve Stackable, co-owner of Computer Madness, a video game and foosball arcade at 2414 S. Lamar Blvd. The "quartermania" fear extends to South Austin households and schools, as well. There it's a fear of students running out of lunch money and classes to play the games. Local school officials and Austin police are monitoring the craze. They're concerned that computer hotspots could become undesirable "hangouts" for students, or that truancy could increase because students (high-school age and younger) will skip school to defend their galaxies against The Tempest. So far police fears have not been substantiated. Department spokesmen say that although more than half the burglaries in the city are committed by juveniles during the daytime, they know of no connection between the break-ins and kids trying to feed their video habit But school and parental worries about misspent time and money continue. The public outcry in September 1980 against proposals to put electronic game arcades near two South Austin schools helped persuade city officials to reject the applications. One proposed location was near Barton Hills Elementary School. The other was South Ridge Plaza at William Cannon Drive and South First Street across from Bedlchek Junior High School. Bedichek principal B.G. Henry said he spoke against the arcade because "of the potential attraction it had for our kids. I personally feel kids are so drawn to these things, that It might encourage them to leave the school building and play hookey. Those things have so much compulsion, kids are drawn to them like a magnet Kids can get addicted to them and throw away money, maybe their lunch money. I'm not against the video games. They may be beneficial with eye-hand coordination or even with mathematics, but when you mix the video games during school hours and near school buildings, you might be asking for problems you don't need." A contingent from nearby Pleasant Hill Elementary School joined Bedichek in the fight back in 1980, although principal Kay Beyer said she received her first formal call about the games last Week from a mother complaining that her child was spending lunch money on them. Beyer added that no truancy problems have been related to video game-playing at a nearby 7-11 store. Allen Poehl, amusement game coordinator for Austin's 7-11 stores, said company policy rules out any game-playing by school-age youth during school hours. Fulmore Junior High principal Bill Armentrout said he is working closely with operators of a nearby 7-1 1 store to make sure their policy is enforced. The convenience store itself, and not necessarily the video games, is a drawing card for older students and drop-outs, Armentrout said. Porter Junior High principal Marjorie Ball said that while video games aren't a big cause of truancy, "the money (spent on the games) is a big factor." Ball said she has made arrangements with nearby businesses to call the school it students are playing the games during school hours. "My concern is that kids are basically unsupervised, especially at the 24-hour grocery stores. That's a late hour for kids to be out. I would like to see them (games) unplugged at 10 p.m.," adds Joslin Elementary principal Wayne Rider. Several proprietors of video game hot-spots say they sympathize with the concerns of parents and school officials. No one under 18 is admitted without a parent to Chuck E. Cheese's Pizza Time Theatre at 4211 S. Lamar. That rule, says night manager David Dunagan, "keeps it from being a high school hangout. This is a family place." Jerry Zollar, owner of J.J. Subs in West Wood Shopping Center on Bee Cave Road, rewards the A's on the report cards of Eanes school district students with free video games. "It's kind of a community thing we do in a different way. I've heard from both teachers and parents . . . they thought this was a good idea," said Zollar. Electronic Encounters in Southwood Mall last year was renovated into a brightly lit arcade. "We're trying to get away from the dark, barroom-type place. We want this to be a place for family entertainment We won't let kids stay here during school hours without a written note from their parents, and we're pretty strict about that," said manager Kelly Roberts. Joyce Houston, who manages The Outer Limits amusements center at 1409 W. Oltorf St. along with her husband, said, "I wouldn't let my children go into some of the arcades I've visited. I'm a concerned parent, too. We wanted a place where the whole family could come and enjoy themselves."
Well you can see which way the tone of all these articles is going. There were some crimes committed at some arcades but all of them tended to have a negative reputation for various reasons. Parents and teachers were very skeptical of the arcades being in the neighborhoods to the point of petitioning the City Government to restrict them. Three arcades are mentioned besides Chuck-E-Cheese. Electronic Encounters in Southwood Mall, The Outer Limits amusements center at 1409 W. Oltorf, and Computer Madness, a "video game and foosball arcade" at 2414 S. Lamar Blvd. Forgotten Arcade #8 Smitty's Galaxy of Games - Lake Creek Parkway February 25, 1982
Arcades fighting negative image Video games have swept across America, and Williamson and Travis counties have not been immune. In a two-part series, Neighbor examines the effects the coin-operated machines have had on suburban and small-town life. Cities have outlawed them, religious leaders have denounced them and distraught mothers have lost countless children to their voracious appetites. And still they march on, stronger and more numerous than before. A new disease? Maybe. A wave of invading aliens from outer space? On occasion. A new type of addiction? Certainly. The culprit? Video games. Although the electronic game explosion has been mushrooming throughout the nation's urban areas for the past few years, its rippling effects have just recently been felt in the suburban fringes of North Austin and Williamson County. In the past year, at least seven arcades armed with dozens of neon quarter-snatchers have sprung up to lure teens with thundering noises and thousands of flashing seek-and-destroy commands. Critics say arcades are dens of iniquity where children fall prey to the evils of gambling. But arcade owners say something entirely different. "Everybody fights them (arcades), they think they are a haven for drug addicts. It's just not true," said Larry Grant of Austin, who opened Eagle's Nest Fun and Games on North Austin Avenue in Georgetown last September. "These kids are great" Grant said the gameroom "gives teenagers a place to come. Some only play the games and some only talk. In Georgetown, if you're from the high school, this is it." He said he's had very few disturbances, and asks "undesirables" to leave. "We've had a couple of rowdies. That's why I don't have any pool tables they tend to attract that type of crowd," Grant said. Providing a place for teens to congregate was also the reason behind Ron and Carol Smith's decision to open Smitty's Galaxy of Games on Lake Creek Parkway at the entrance to Anderson Mill. "We have three teenage sons, and as soon as the oldest could drive, it became immediately apparent that there was no place to go around here," said Ron, an IBM employee who lives in Spicewood at Balcones. "This prompted us to want to open something." The business, which opened in August, has been a huge success with both parents and youngsters. "Hundreds of parents have come to check out our establishment before allowing their children to come, and what they see is a clean, safe environment managed by adults and parents," Ron said. "We've developed an outstanding rapport with the community." Video arcades "have a reputation that we have to fight," said Carol. Kathy McCoy of Georgetown, who last October opened Krazy Korner on Willis Street in Leander, agrees. "We've got a real good group of kids," she said. "There's no violence, no nothing. Parents can always find their kids at Krazy Korner." While all the arcade owners contacted reported that business is healthy, if not necessarily lucrative, it's not as easy for video entrepreneurs to turn a profit as one might imagine. A sizeable investment is required. Ron Smith paid between $2,800 and $5,000 for each of the 30 electronic diversions at his gameroom. Grant said his average video game grosses about $50 a week, and his "absolute worst" game, Armor Attack, only $20 a week. The top machines (Defender and Pac-Man) can suck in an easy $125 a week. That's a lot of quarters, 500 to be exact but the Eagle's Nest and Krazy Korner pass half of them on to Neelley Vending Company of Austin which rents them their machines. "At 25 cents a shot, it takes an awful lot of people to pay the bills," said Tom Hatfield, district manager for Neelley. He added that an owner's personality and the arcade's location can make or break the venture. The game parlor must be run "by an understanding person, someone with patience," Hatfield said. "They cannot be too demanding on the kids, yet they can't let them run all over them." And they must be located in a spot "with lots of foot traffic," such as a shopping center or near a good restaurant, he said. "And being close to a school really helps." "Video games are going to be here permanently, but we're going to see some operations not going because of the competition," which includes machines in virtually every convenience store and supermarket, Hatfield said.
This article talks about three arcades. One in Georgetown called Eagles Nest, another in Leander called Krazy Korner, and a third called Smitty's Galaxy of Games on Lake Creek Parkway "on the fringes of North Austin". This is the one I remember the older kids talking about when I was a little kid. There was once a movie theater across the street from the Westwood High School football stadium and behind that was Smitty's. Today I think the building was bulldozed long ago and the space is part of the expanded onramp to 183 today. Eventually another unrelated arcade was built next to the theater that became Alamo Lakeline. It was another site of some unrecorded epic Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat tournaments in the 90s. But the article written before the end of the Golden Era tell us much about the pushback I was talking about earlier. Early arcades were seen as "dirty" places in some circles, and the owners of the arcades in Williamson County had to stress how "clean" their establishments were. This other article from a couple of weeks later tells of how area school officials weren't worried about video games and tells us more arcades in Round Rock and Cedar Park. Apparently the end of the golden age lasted a bit longer than usual in this area. At some point in the next few years the bubble burst, and places like Smitty's were gone by the late 80s. But the distributors quoted earlier were right that arcade games weren't going completely away. In the mid 1980s LeFun opened up next in the Scientology building at 2200 Guadalupe on the drag. Down a few doors past what used be a coffee shop and a CVS was Einsteins Arcade. Both of those survived into the 21st century. I remember the last time I was at Einsteins I got my ass beat in Tekken by a kid half my age. heheh That's all for today. There were no Bonus Pics in the UT archive of arcades (other than the classical architectural definition). I wanted to pass on some Bonus newspaper articles (remember to click and zoom in with the buttons on the right to read) about Austin arcades anyway but first a small story. I mentioned earlier the secret of the UT Student Union. I have no idea what it looks like now but in the 90s there was a sizable arcade in with the bowling alley in the basement. Back in 1994 when I used to sneak in, they featured this bizarre early attempt at virtual reality games. I found an old Michael Barnes Statesman article about it dated February 11, 1994. Some highlights:
Hundreds of students and curiosity-seekers lined up at the University of Texas Union to play three to five minutes of Dactyl Nightmare, Flying Aces or V-Tol, three-dimensional games from Kramer Entertainment. Nasty weather delayed the unloading of four huge trunks containing the machines, which resemble low pulpits. Still, players waited intently for a chance to shoot down a fighter jet, operate a tilt-wing Harrier or tangle with a pterodactyl. Today, tickets will go on sale in the Texas Union lobby at 11:30 a.m. for playing slots between noon and 6 p.m. Players, fitted with full helmets, throttles and power packs, stood on shiny gray and yellow platforms surrounded by a circular guard rail. Seen behind the helmet's goggles were computer simulated landscapes, not unlike the most sophisticated video games, with controls and enemies viewed in deep space. "You're on a platform waiting to fight a human figure," said Jeff Vaughn, 19, of Dactyl Nightmare. "A pterodactyl swoops down and tries to pick you up. You have to fight it off. You are in the space and can see your own body and all around you. But if you try to walk, you have to use that joy stick to get around." "I let the pterodactyl carry me away so I could look down and scan the board," said Tom Bowen of the same game. "That was the way I found out where the other player was." "Yeah, it's cool just to stand there and not do anything," Vaughn said. The mostly young, mostly male crowd included the usual gaming fanatics, looking haggard and tense behind glasses and beards. A smattering of women and children also pressed forward in a line that snaked past the lobby and into the Union's retail shops. "I don't know why more women don't play. Maybe because the games are so violent," said Jennifer Webb, 24, a psychology major whose poor eyesight kept her from becoming a fighter pilot in real life. "If the Air Force won't take me, virtual reality will." "They use stereo optics moving at something like 60 frames a second," said computer science major Alex Aquila, 19. "The images are still pretty blocky. But once you play it, you'll want to play it again and again." With such demand for virtual reality, some gamesters wondered why an Austin video arcade has not invested in at least one machine.
The gameplay looked like this. Bonus Article #1 - "Video fans play for own reasons" (Malibu Grand Prix) - March 11, 1982 Bonus Article #2 - "Pac-Man Cartridge Piques Interest" - April 13, 1982 Bonus Article #3 - "Video Games Fail Consumer" - January 29, 1984 Bonus Article #4 - "Nintendoholics/Modems Unite" - January 25, 1989 Bonus Article #5 and pt 2 "Two girls missing for a night found at arcade" (truly dedicated young gamers) - August 7, 2003
Guarding our assets: Victor Oladipo and the franchise's path forward
I had started writing a post about what the next steps for the franchise could entail when I realized that a huge amount of it revolves around one guy... the player return we got from the Harden trade who happens to be entering Unrestricted Free Agency in a few months. When the news came through that we had traded LeVert for Oladipo, many assumed that it was just a move to reduce salary by Tilman, but I reject that as overly pessimistic. Oladipo in his prime (which was not long ago at all) was a 2-time All Star and one of the premier defensive shooting guards in the league. His horrific injury has taken a bit of time to come back from, and worried Indiana enough to scare them off from wanting to deal with re-signing him to the max contract he will be requesting in Free Agency next summer. They saw so much value in having LeVert locked up on a cheaper deal for extra years that they were willing to take him on with his cancer concerns instead of dealing with a potential max deal for Vic. I don't see this as a salary move from Tilman so much as I see it as a gamble on a player returning from injury by Stone. Between taking chances on Wall, Boogie, and Nwaba, hoping players can come back from bad injuries is a common thread in his gambles and seems to be his "M.O.", so I'm thinking he honestly hopes Victor can come back to a significant percentage of his peak level. Trading Harden for a younger All-Star SG +8 FRP assets is a massive coup of a deal... if Oladipo is capable of playing close to the level he was at before his injury. Unfortunately, Victor hasn't gotten back to that level yet... But he isn't that far away, either. He has flashed his potential several times, but has had an equal number of horrific shooting nights. This lack of consistency is problematic, but if he could stabilize around the level of his better performances (which he is obviously capable of), there isn't really a question that he would be worth a near-max deal if not a full max. Obviously, getting that consistency back is his primary goal and there is no reason to believe that it isn't our hope for him as well. If he does, then we can feel safe signing him to a long-term deal or, if he returns to form quickly enough, we can flip him for more assets. The first option there is relatively straight forward. Re-signing him if he is close to his old production levels is a no-brainer. You've seen the reports that neither side are giving committed answers one way or the other at this point, which is sensible in terms of leverage in negotiations. Both sides know that he has more to prove and if he doesn't prove it, there isn't a good reason to offer him a max deal next summer. Some team will likely do it anyway, and there is even a chance that it may be us; but saying we are looking to do it before seeing that proof of play is a bad move (especially with no guarantee that another team will do it). It would be a mistake to offer him $34M/yr with 8% increases if he doesn't show serious progression from his current level of play. The question is... at what point does it no longer become a mistake? Here is a list of available UFAs next summer (from Hoops Rumors):
Although there are some interesting names on the list, unless Schroeder ends up with a FMVP or Jrue Holiday or Kawhi Leonard decide to leave their teams, Victor Oladipo is probably going to be the most sought-after Free Agent next summer. A fair number of teams have max space, so it is likely that he will get his max deal from somewhere. Oladipo has expressed interest in Miami, but they aren't likely to have a max slot available after signing Bam to his extension. A number of other teams do have plenty of space available, though, including the Knicks, Bulls, and Spurs. If you can't see where I'm going with this, the question is... should we also consider being a team that offers him a max contract? Obviously we don't want to get caught up in a bad contract that prevents us from missing out on other Free Agents! Well, who else on that list strikes you as someone we should spend money on? There are some interesting names. Harry Giles... Otto Porter... Hey, maybe we could get Kelly Oubre! But anyone we would want will also be wanted by another team, and there will be a bidding war that also makes that guy overpaid. In short, I'm suggesting that year 1 of an Oladipo max would not be a problem even if it were an overpay. Well what about year 2? Here is a list of available FAs the following summer:
Zach LaVine is obviously the highlight here. Aaron Gordon and Terry Rozier are some other interesting names (and it's worth pointing out that Brooklyn's Big 3 could opt-out and enter FA). Is the hope of convincing Zach LaVine to sign here worth leaving open space for? Maybe you think so, but I'd suggest it's not. Because here's the thing... We can trade Oladipo. Obviously we can trade him in the next 7 weeks, but we can trade him after re-signing him, too. In fact, as long as he doesn't get re-injured or regress horribly (the latter being something we can probably determine this year if you aren't already convinced), it won't be so hard to move his contract. A 30% max contract is not the problem that a 35% supermax represents. Any of the big name Free Agents could be sign and traded by their teams in return for Oladipo. If his contract has turned negative, we may need to include a pick or two... but we have a lot of those! And using them to move a bad contract as a way to sign a top-tier FA really isn't a waste of picks. It's essentially the same thing as using picks to trade for a superstar (WHICH WE CAN ALSO DO! more on that in a minute). Using Oladipo as salary filler in future trades is a good reason on its own to keep him around. There is a chance the deal will look like an overpay, but unless he has a horrific injury or falls off a cliff (which doesn't seem likely, imo), it isn't going to be that negative. Victor will make over $10M/yr less than Harden is scheduled to make next year. Add that to an increased salary cap, and we can probably re-sign him to a max, re-sign Nwaba with Early Bird Rights, and along with Wall, Gordon, Wood, House, Tate, KJ, Ma$e and KPJ, have room to use the MLE and still fill out a roster while remaining under the tax. It's basically this year's roster minus PJ, Ben, and Brown, but with an MLE signing to help out. Is that a Championship roster? No. It is competitive and has significant upside if the youth improve and the vets recover further from injury, but Wall and Oladipo are not the top-tier superstar needed to win a title. But either one of them could easily be the 3rd best guy on a Championship team (with the other being sent away as salary match if/when such a deal arises) and resigning Vic - even to a max contract, if necessary - allows us time to find a trade for a superstar (or sign one in Free Agency by trading one of our guards). I hear you calling me crazy for suggesting it. But what are the alternatives? Let's game plan them out, too. The popular idea is trading Vic before the deadline for more assets. This is not a bad idea... in fact, it may even be a better plan than re-signing him... but only if he can bring back a good deal. What does a good trade for Oladipo look like? Well, in his prime he was a decidedly better player than Jrue Holliday, who just got traded for a decent player in Eric Bledsoe as well as 3 FRPs. It's unlikely that Oladipo will return to that form in the next 7 weeks (although not impossible, especially with the extra opportunity that Wood's injury affords him), but if he continues to flash that level of potential, we would be getting robbed to let go of him for anything less than 2 very lightly protected FRPs. If that's the price for someone to trade for him, do you see it happening? I really don't. Maybe we get lucky and Miami gets desperate. Maybe another contender with assets to spare (there aren't so many left) decides to throw down an offer with hopes of a promise that he will re-sign (likely a max contract) with them. Again, I don't see this as likely. It would be great if it happens, though! No, it is unlikely we can trade Oladipo for more than a FRP and some expiring filler. Now you may think that sounds like a good deal, but is it? Certainly it isn't good compared to what New Orleans got for Jrue, and while Oladipo doesn't look as good as Holiday right now, he undeniably has the potential to look that good. So the question is, do we certainly lose value on him by trading him on the cheap, or do we take a risk of losing value if he can't regain max-contract form. The former is obviously safer, the latter could obviously blow up if he has a career-ending injury (but it could also pay off with significantly higher rewards than a FRP). So unless we get a lucky deal, it comes down to what our appetite for risk is. I'd say roll the dice on Vic. He's only 28, so age is not really a factor on his next contract. It's completely a question of how close to his old self he can return to. We've seen some promising signs in the short season so far, and will now get a month of real opportunity to gather information on him. And here's the biggest problem with trading him for bad value... if we trade him for a pick without getting a very solid player in return, our roster will absolutely get worse. It drops us from our current status of 'bottom bracket playoff team' to 'No-Mans land'... being in the 9-12 range. That's a horrible spot to land. If we are there, it makes more sense to tank, leading us into the last section of this essay on guarding our assets... DON'T TANK It's 2 AM here and I've been writing for too long, so I'm gonna make this short and sweet. Tanking sucks. Losing sucks. We don't want to be losers if we can be semi-competitive. Showing a commitment to winning attracts Free Agents, keeps Wood happy, and allows us to maintain a franchise that is literally one piece away from being right back as a contender. We are not Oklahoma City. Free Agents want to play in Houston. Maybe its not LA, NY, or Miami, but there aren't many other cities above us on the list of destinations. If we trade for a guy, he's liable to stay. We don't need to rely on high draft picks to get talent. (side note: tanking is not even a reliable way of getting talent! Between reduced lottery odds and the uncertainty of high picks panning out, it's a bad way to depend on getting a superstar. Philly and OKC are the closest examples of it 'working out' and those were under the old lottery odds... now it would be significantly harder. Additionally, remaining competitive keeps our Brooklyn pick swaps in play as being assets. If we sell all assets and aim for the bottom, then it will be a long climb out in which at least 2 and quite possibly 3 of our swaps are basically completely surrendered, whereas keeping competitive can allow those swaps to become quite valuable even if the Nets don't bottom out as badly as they did for Boston. Not to mention the increased danger of giving much better picks to OKC) Signing or trading for stars are MUCH more reliable methods... and we now have the picks to trade with. So that should be our preferred path to contention. Wait for the next top-tier superstar to become unhappy and fire away to get him. Only OKC and NO can compete with our picks package (and we can offer a decent player in return as an additional bonus!) So when that next disgruntled star shakes free (which has happened more and more frequently), we stand poised to strike stronger than any team in the league. A new era of contenders is on the horizon. The Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, and Nets are aging out. The Nuggets and Celtics are the types of teams we look to be competing against in a few years. Those are the superstars we need to be worrying about for now... not the old guard, but the young ones. Tanking next year puts us way behind in a rebuild that is only one move away. So get those thoughts out of your heads. We can compete with those teams with Wood, another star, and Oladipo or Wall along with all our promising young talent. We will be back sooner than anyone expects. And as surprising as it sounds, the first step may well be signing Oladipo to a max contract next summer.
https://preview.redd.it/xm2rmxgccif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=727ec6ddc09f8e0ebc58dfbb4bfe5a6e702fff49 We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others. As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen. Let’s dive into it!
Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:
The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field. https://preview.redd.it/ydhdh09bbif61.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=2130b984b7228140b0a17d05759752e7a8a09a87 It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes. For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:
As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts. https://preview.redd.it/ymqekb5nbif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61bc935642ddc713da5a866d8bc8fea123ea1dbf When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce. I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
Examining the first matchup:
Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory. While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met: When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
What each team can take away:
A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be: For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes. Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher. https://preview.redd.it/enx2gsi8eif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1de643c848aefd212231c5e7a3059c580c0967b7 On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money. When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for. As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday. https://preview.redd.it/tof7xfc4cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=acd57311d38bd8217491b102f927017514a6b1bd
Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill
I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion. Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
Prediction:
On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves. Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck. https://preview.redd.it/njt5v586cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c20c0b875bf0f9fb7d19841500f93ec8ad78f42
Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28
So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City. If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece! Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
There are some heavy hitters on GME's Board and in the C-Suite. IMHO, the company should have spoken out about what's happening regarding their stock. They should also have a plan to address changes in the marketplace re Covid19, the push for digital and cryptocurrency, etc. Positive statements from them would improve the stability of the stock. Why have they been silent throughout this entire event? Wouldn't they speak out against the disparaging remarks from various HF reps in recent weeks which have negatively impacted the value of the stock? Or, do they agree with the HFs that the stock is worthless, which would suggest that GME is behind a pump and dump which has enriched them and left us holding the bag? This is the kind of letter we need to send, en mass, to the Chairman of the Board: Kathy Vrabeck, and to the media.
George ShermanChief Executive Officer and Director George E. Sherman is the chief executive officer of GameStop. He was appointed to this role in April 2019.George is a member of GameStop’s Board of Directors, a seat he has held since April 2019.George brings to GameStop more than 25 years of senior management experience serving in a variety of retail leadership roles for several major retail brands like Advance Auto Parts, Best Buy, Target and Home Depot.Prior to joining GameStop, George served as CEO of Victra, the largest exclusive authorized retailer for Verizon Wireless products and services. Before this, he served as president and interim CEO for Advance Auto Parts where he was responsible for more than 4,000 stores, merchandising, marketing, IT, supply chain and commercial sales.George also served as president of Best Buy Services, where he led consumer services, small- and medium-business capabilities, channel partnerships and Best Buy for business. Prior to Best Buy, he ran the operations and home services divisions of Home Depot and spent 14 years with the Target Corporation in various leadership roles.He received his master’s degree from Central Michigan University and served as an officer in the United States Air Force for nearly seven years. George is an active community volunteer with veteran’s causes and currently serves on the board of directors of Building Homes for Heroes, which builds mortgage free homes catered to the unique needs of disabled veterans.
Jim BellEVP and Chief Financial Officer Jim Bell serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for GameStop, a role he was appointed to in June of 2019. Prior to joining GameStop, Jim served as CFO and interim CEO of Wok Holdings, Inc., the parent company of P.F. Chang’s, Pei Wei and True Food Kitchen restaurants, where he successfully designed and led the company’s overall strategic plan and omnichannel digital transformation and the successful sale of each of these brands. Previously, Jim served as EVP and CFO at RLH Corporation and President and CEO of Coldwater Creek, Inc. Earlier in his career he held senior finance roles at Harry & David Holdings, Inc. and The Gap. Jim received his MBA from the University of Maryland and a B.S. in Economics from the U.S. Naval Academy. Following graduation, Jim served as a Naval Flight Officer leading squadron and flight operations in the U.S. Navy from 1989 to 1998.
Dan ReedGeneral Counsel and Corporate Secretary Dan Reed serves as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for GameStop. In this role, Dan oversees all company domestic and international legal matters and works closely with the executive leadership team and the Board of Directors to ensure legal compliance and success in meeting business objectives.Prior to joining GameStop in 2006, Dan worked in private practice as a business lawyer. Dan holds a J.D. degree from the University of Texas and a bachelor’s degree from Texas A&M University.
Board of Directors
Kathy VrabeckBoard Chair Kathy P. Vrabeck is Board Chair and a member of the Compensation Committee. She has served as a Director since June 2012. She is currently a senior client partner in the consumer markets division of Korn Ferry. Previously, she was a Partner at Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. (“Heidrick & Struggles”) in their Media, Entertainment and Digital practice. Prior to joining Heidrick & Struggles in July 2011, Vrabeck was with Legendary Pictures from March 2009 to March 2011 where she served as president, Legendary Digital and was responsible for the creation, management and delivery of digital entertainment, with a focus on video games, across current and next-generation platforms. From May 2007 to November 2008, Vrabeck was with Electronic Arts, Inc. (“EA”) where she served as president, EA Casual Entertainment and led EA’s efforts in the fastest growing segments of the video game market: mobile, online, social networking and global media sales. Prior to joining EA, Vrabeck was with Activision, Inc. (“Activision”) from August 1999 to April 2006 where she served as president, Activision Publishing, overseeing Activision’s product development and global brand management and publishing operations. Earlier in her career, Vrabeck held various marketing, sales and finance positions with ConAgra, The Pillsbury Company, Quaker Oats and Eli Lilly and Company. Vrabeck currently serves on the DePauw University Board of Trustees.
George ShermanChief Executive Officer and Directo rGeorge E. Sherman is the chief executive officer of GameStop. He was appointed to this role in April 2019.George is a member of GameStop’s Board of Directors, a seat he has held since April 2019.George brings to GameStop more than 25 years of senior management experience serving in a variety of retail leadership roles for several major retail brands like Advance Auto Parts, Best Buy, Target and Home Depot.Prior to joining GameStop, George served as CEO of Victra, the largest exclusive authorized retailer for Verizon Wireless products and services. Before this, he served as president and interim CEO for Advance Auto Parts where he was responsible for more than 4,000 stores, merchandising, marketing, IT, supply chain and commercial sales.George also served as president of Best Buy Services, where he led consumer services, small- and medium-business capabilities, channel partnerships and Best Buy for business. Prior to Best Buy, he ran the operations and home services divisions of Home Depot and spent 14 years with the Target Corporation in various leadership roles.He received his master’s degree from Central Michigan University and served as an officer in the United States Air Force for nearly seven years. George is an active community volunteer with veteran’s causes and currently serves on the board of directors of Building Homes for Heroes, which builds mortgage free homes catered to the unique needs of disabled veterans.
Carrie TeffnerDirector Carrie Teffner is a director and was appointed to the board in 2018. Carrie is chair of the Audit Committee and brings 30 years of financial leadership and experience in the consumer products and retail industries. Carrie has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) since 2015. Before assuming her executive positions at Crocs, she served on the Crocs board of directors, which she joined in June 2015. Prior to joining Crocs, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at PetSmart and, before that, at Weber-Stephen Products. Prior to those roles, she served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Timberland and spent 21 years in various leadership positions at Sara Lee Corporation. Carrie holds Master of Business Administration and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Vermont.
Raul FernandezDirector Raul is a director and was appointed to GameStop’s board in April 2019. He serves as a member of the company’s Audit Committee. Raul serves as Vice Chairman and Owner of Monumental Sports & Entertainment, a private partnership that co-owns the NBA’s Washington Wizards, the NHL’s 2018 Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals, the WNBA’s Washington Mystics, Team Liquid eSports and Wizards District Gaming NBA 2K, as well as co-owns and operates Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. He also serves as Special Advisor and Limited Partner to General Atlantic Partners, a growth equity firm with more than $31 billion under management. He previously served in several leadership roles at various technology companies, including as Chairman and CEO for Object Video, a leading developer of intelligent video surveillance software. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Maryland and is an active philanthropist, focusing his energy primarily on education reform in the D.C. region.
Lizabeth DunnDirector Lizabeth is a director and was appointed to GameStop’s board in April 2019. She serves as a member of the company’s Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee and the Compensation Committee. Lizabeth is the Founder and CEO of Pro4ma Inc, an information technology services consulting firm that provides cloud-based data forecasting and predictive analytics tools to retailers. She also is the Founder and CEO of Talmage Advisers, a retail and branded consumer products consulting firm that provides a full range of services across brand strategy, pricing analysis, financial benchmarking and transactional due diligence. Prior to founding these firms, Lizabeth served in various consulting and financial analyst roles for leading financial firms and retail organizations, including Macquarie Group, FBR, Thomas Weisel, Prudential Equity Group, Bear Stearns, Gap Inc. and Liz Claiborne. She holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from Spelman College.
William SimonDirector Bill Simon has more than 30 years of operational and strategic advisory experience in the retail, consumer and food and beverage industries. Since 2014, he has served as a Senior Advisor at KKR & Co. Mr. Simon previously served in multiple leadership roles at Walmart Inc. from 2006 to 2015, including as President and CEO of Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014; EVP and COO of Walmart U.S. from 2007 to 2010; and as EVP, Professional Services and New Business Development from 2006 to 2007. Earlier in his career, Mr. Simon served as VP of Marketing, Beverages at Cadbury Schweppes plc and held leadership roles of increasing responsibility at PepsiCo, Inc., after beginning his career at RJR Nabisco. Bill holds an MBA and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Connecticut. Mr. Simon was appointed to the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Audit Committee and the chair of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
James SymancykDirector Mr. Symancyk brings more than 25 years of executive leadership and operational experience in the retail and consumer products industries. He has served as President and CEO of PetSmart, Inc. since 2018. Mr. Symancyk previously served as President and CEO of Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc., a retail and ecommerce sporting goods chain, from 2015 to 2018. Prior to that, he held leadership roles of increasingly responsibility at Meijer, Inc., a regional supercenter chain store, including as President; COO; and EVP, Merchandising & Marketing. He began his career at Sam’s Club, where he served as Divisional Merchandise Manager, among other roles. Mr. Symancyk holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Arkansas. Mr. Symancyk was appointed to the board in 2020 and serves as the chair of the Compensation Committee.
Reginald Fils-AiméDirector Reggie brings more than 35 years of experience transforming companies, revitalizing brands and reshaping industries. From 2006 to 2019, he served as President and COO of Nintendo of America, Inc. During his tenure, Mr. Fils-Aimé focused on the development and launch of industry re-defining products, including the Nintendo DS, Wii, Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo Switch, quadrupling the company’s revenue from 2005 to 2010, and oversaw the successful implementation of the company’s digital strategy. He previously served as Nintendo of America’s EVP of Sales and Marketing from 2003 to 2006. Prior to joining Nintendo, Mr. Fils-Aimé served as SVP of Marketing for VH1 from 2001 to 2003, where he led a strategic shift to appeal to younger consumers that resulted in an increase in ratings of more than 30 percent. Earlier in his career, he held multiple marketing roles at a variety of consumer and manufacturing companies, including the Derby Cycle Corporation, Guinness Import Company, Panda Management Company, Inc., Pizza Hut, Inc. and the Procter & Gamble Company. Mr. Fils-Aimé holds a Bachelor’s degree in Applied Economics from Cornell University. Mr. Fils-Aimé was appointed to the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
Kurt WolfDirector Mr. Wolf is the Managing Member and Chief Investment Officer of Hestia Capital Management LLC. Previously, Mr. Wolf worked in a variety of financial, investing and operating roles, at First Q Capital, LLC, and as a co-Founding Partner at Lemhi Ventures LLC. Earlier in his career, Mr. Wolf worked as a consultant both with Deloitte Consulting and The Boston Consulting Group. Mr. Wolf earned a Master of Business Administration degree from the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and Mathematics from Carleton College. Mr. Wolf joined the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
Paul EvansDirector Mr. Evans is a Senior Managing Director at Dillon Kane Group. Additionally, Mr. Evans is a Board Director at Hill International, Inc. Prior to this, Mr. Evans served in a variety of senior executive roles at MYR Group Inc. Earlier in his career, Mr. Evans held a number of executive management positions at several energy-related businesses. Mr. Evans is a Certified Public Accountant and a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. Mr. Evans received a B.B.A in Accounting from Stephen F. Austin State University and a Masters of International Management from Thunderbird School of Global Management. Mr. Evans joined the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Audit Committee.
[Model Observer] [Opinion] Long Live the Queen: A rebuttal to the Lincolnshire Leninist
https://preview.redd.it/30lh79vhqte61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7081903f55e5310226f42afcd4548eb3c091a2aa The other day, the “Lincolnshire Leninist” (an extremely niche publication for people who are both Lincolnshireans and ardent revolutionary socialists) published an article titled “Long Live the Republic”, commemorating the Siege of Lincoln during the English Civil War. A particularly odd thing to do. Today, I am here to dispel the myths and legends behind the Parliamentarian cause that the Leninist fetishises in this article and expose the lies of republicanism. To understand the English Civil War, we have to go back to 1215 when King John signed the Magna Carta, which ushered in the beginnings of our constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy. The point of the Charter was to limit the power of the king and give more power to the barons and knights of the realm following many controversial decisions made by the aforementioned King John, not to mention a weak economy caused by failed harvests and a failed war in France. Nevertheless, whilst the first Charter ultimately failed, leading to the First Barons’ War and John’s death, later charters were signed and became the basis for our Constitution. Anyway, flash forward 410 years to the coronation of King Charles I. Charles took a pretty dim view of Parliament, especially the Commons, who often opposed the King’s proposal to raise levies and taxes in order to pay for his ever greater spending. So, 9 years into his rule, Charles dissolved Parliament indefinitely and for 11 years ruled by royal prerogative. Eventually, with war erupting across the Three Kingdoms (England, Scotland and Ireland), Charles was forced to recall Parliament which went about re-establishing its power. This lasted a whole two years until Charles attempted to arrest five members of the House of Commons - John Hampden, MP for Buckinghamshire, Sir Arthur Haselrig, MP for Leicestershire, Denzil Holles, MP for Dorchester, John Pym, MP for Tavistock and William Strode, MP for Bere Alston. Charles entered Parliament with an armed escort who subsequently barged down the doors of the Commons (leading to the tradition of the Black Rod) and attempted to arrest the men. This was to be the second to last time that Charles stepped foot in London. Soon after, the Civil War began with the Royalists (also known as Cavaliers) led by His Majesty The King and his nephew, Prince Rupert, Duke of Cumberland and the Parliamentarians (also known as Roundheads) led by Sir Thomas Fairfax and Oliver Cromwell. By now, we know the story. The Roundheads were triumphant, Charles was brought to Westminster Hall where he faced a show trial and was executed. A Commonwealth was established with Cromwell as Lord Protector, which was absolutely nothing like the monarchy except the fact that it was his and his only and was to be passed down by male primogeniture. Totally not like a monarchy! The Privy Council was abolished and replaced by the Council of State which was absolutely nothing like the Privy Council except that its job was to issue Orders in Council and advise the Lord Protector. Totally not the Privy Council! The third thing to happen was the abolition of the House of Lords, though later Cromwell replaced it with the House of Peers which was absolutely nothing like the House of Lords except that is was filled with Cromwell’s friends and allies (many of whom were former members of the House of Lords) and not to mention his two surviving sons - Richard and Henry. Totally not like the House of Lords! Anyway, yadda yadda yadda, Cromwell dies, his son Richard takes the throne, I mean, Protectorship. Charles I’s son, Charles, Prince of Wales returns from France, the Third Civil War begins ending in a Royalist victory and the Restoration of the Monarchy with Charles crowned as Charles II in 1660. The question is, if this Commonwealth was so fair and just and perfect, why did Charles feel compelled to return to England and fight to reinstate the monarchy. The fact is that the Commonwealth was a dire place to live. All the Civil War did was replace a tyrannical, unelected monarch with a tyrannical, unelected protector. The rule of the Commonwealth was not conducted by Parliament, but by Cromwell himself through the Council of State, just as Charles I had done during what some historians call the “Eleven Years’ Tyranny”. However, Cromwell’s primary goal was not to govern the Commonwealth as effectively as possible, but instead to impose his strict Presbyterian, commonly called “Puritan” beliefs on his subjects. He banned, amongst other things, sports, plays, gambling and Christmas. Puritans believed that celebration or any kind of frivolous act was simply attempting to stray man away from the light of God, and so when Cromwell got his chance, he sought to create a nation in his image. He was a tyrant. Another thing he banned was Catholicism. Puritanism was a denomination of Presbyterianism, itself a denomination of Protestantism and therefore, Cromwell hated Catholics with a passion, especially the Irish, who were and still are majority Roman Catholics. He waged war in Ireland from 1649 to 1653, using his New Model Army to crush the Catholic Confederation (which still recognised the monarchy). The war was successful, though Cromwell’s war on Ireland was not done yet. He enacted Penal Laws in order to convert Irish Catholics and Protestant dissenters to the Protestant Church of Ireland and throughout his rule, he continued to take land from the native Irish. In 1652, he signed the Act of Settlement, which forced Irish Catholics out of their homes and forced them to settle in the west of Ireland and if they resisted, they were to be killed. “To Hell or to Connacht” is supposedly the phrase that Cromwell used. Cromwell then allowed English and Scottish Protestants to move into the vacated lands, especially in Ulster, which we are still seeing the ramifications of today. Enough about the past; onwards to the present day. For many on the radical left, the Republic is the ideal form of government. No hierarchies, no titles, just democracy all the way down. Sounds great, right? In fact, you couldn’t be more wrong. Yes, democracy is a great thing. It is the measure of a free society. The freer the democracy, the freer the people. But let me ask you - in real terms, what would we gain from becoming a republic? The answer is nothing, and in fact, we would lose a lot. The monarchy may seem like a relic of the past to those on the radical left, but to me, and a majority of Britons, they symbolise our history. Her Majesty The Queen can trace her bloodline directly back almost a millenia to William the Conqueror. The symbols of the monarchy - the Crown Jewels have origins stepped in history. The Crown can be dated back to the coronation of King Henry III in 1220, the Orb was first used during the coronation of King Henry VIII in 1509 and the Sceptre can be dated back to the 11th century. Each one is adorned with diamonds and other precious stones and are rich in the tradition and power of the monarchy and they provide a direct link from the past to the present. When Her Majesty was coronated in 1953, she wore the same crown her father, King George VI did in 1937, as his father, King George V did in in 1911, as his father, King Edward VII did in 1902, as his mother, Queen Victoria did in 1838 and so on. The longevity of the monarchy is what makes it so inspiring. It is a symbol of our ancient past, but also of where we are today and when the Princes of Wales adorns it at his coronation and the Duke of Cambridge adorns at his coronation and Prince George adorns it at his coronation, it will symbolise the continuation of the monarchy on this green and pleasant land. The statement “Long Live the Queen” isn’t directly referencing Her Majesty, long may she live, it references the Crown itself, as the enduring symbol of monarchy. The Queen may be in possession of it, but the Crown is eternal and whether you view it as a symbol of the monarch’s God-given right to rule or as the symbol of the continuation of our institutions as I do, it will eventually pass on to its next owner by hereditary right. This is what a republic lacks - tradition. Republics take away tradition and attempt to replace it with ideas of equality and fairness. Republics are sterile environments, wiped clean of what the radical left deams to be impure. “This isn’t democracy” they cry, despite living in one of the longest-lasting democracies on the planet. This is a country that when more democracy is demanded, we have delivered it. Yes, it is not a pure democracy, but is that so bad? The radical left is so concerned with its own ideas of ideological purity and superiority that it cannot look past that and view what we have as a shining beacon of democracy. Yes, there are reforms to be made. I, for one, am a fan of having elected peers introduced into the House of Lords in order to introduce greater democracy to Parliament. The time will come when this will happen. When there is pressure for it, we will deliver, and right now, there is no pressure for abolishing the monarchy. The dissenting voices seem the loudest, only because they are the ones screaming in the crowd. The rest of us are standing content with it all. A Solidarity created republic would be chaos and right now, we do not need chaos. We are on the edge of the biggest change this country has faced in a generation. We need stability, not anarchy. Every time in recent history when a new republic has been formed, it has quickly descended into chaos. Germany went through years of strife following their transition to a republic following World War I, with factions literally fighting each other in the streets of Berlin, and all it took was one man - Adolf Hitler using the Weimar system to get into power and then completely unraveling it in less than a year. Russia deposed its monarchy before World War I even ended. In its place, a weak provisional state which required the backing of Soviets to maintain power, which eventually backfired, leading to a revolution where the Bolsheviks seized power, waged a years long civil war during which they executed the Romanovs and once the war was over, they purged anyone who wasn’t strictly in line with Lenin. And what came after Lenin wasn’t pretty either. We tend to think of the French Revolution as one thing - when the people of France deposed and executed the king and queen and created a republic. But that’s not what happened. What happened was the Reign of Terror, as the ironically named Committee of Public Safety, led by Maximilian Robespierre, executed almost 17,000 people in less than a year until Robespierre himself was executed. And much like in Germany 134 years later, all it took was one man - Napoléon Bonaparte seizing power to completely unravel the French Republic and five years later, declared himself Emperor of France and waged a decade-long conflict against every other nation in Europe before being deposed and exiled and the Bourbon monarchy restored, only for Napoléon to return, fight one last battle at Waterloo before being deposed and exiled again and the Bourbon monarchy restored once again. This only lasted 15 years until Louis Philippe I seized power and reigned for 18 more years until another revolution deposed him and declared a second Republic which only lasted 4 years before Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte declared himself Emperor Napoléon III, ruled for 18 years before being deposed himself and a third republic declared which lasted until our friend from earlier - Hitler, invaded France in 1940. In 1931, Spain declared its Second Republic and immediately faced threats from all sides of the political spectrum. Communists, Anarchists, Monarchists and Fascists all sought power. Inside 5 years, Spain was in the midst of a civil war with the left (supported by the Soviets) and the right (supported by Nazi Germany) fought for supremacy, eventually leading to a victory for the Fascists and Franscisco Franco becoming Head of State and ruling over Spain until his death in 1975, upon which it re-established democracy and the monarchy with Juan Carlos de Borbón becoming King Juan Carlos I. Not to mention the countless governments that Italy has had since its transition to a republic, or how Vladimir Putin has exploited a democratised Russia into becoming his own personal fiefdom and how Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has essentially done the same in Turkey. Also how the various republics in Africa and Asia have faced constant instability, dictatorships and military coups, even yesterday with the Burmese military seizing control from the civilian government. Republics. Do. Not. Work. Too much of anything can be bad for you, democracy included. As far as I am concerned, Solidarity should focus more on fixing the real issues in this country such as the growing racial, gender and class divisions in our society, tackling mega-rich corporations and preparing Britain for life outside the EU instead of squabbling over their own ideological purity. There are real issues in this country and the monarchy is not one of them. God Save the Queen, long may she reign. SomeBritishDude26, Chief Editor, The Observer Jerusalem by William Blake And did those feet in ancient time Walk upon England's mountains green? And was the holy Lamb of God On England's pleasant pastures seen? And did the Countenance Divine Shine forth upon our clouded hills? And was Jerusalem builded here Among these dark Satanic mills? Bring me my bow of burning gold: Bring me my arrows of desire: Bring me my spear: O clouds unfold! Bring me my chariot of fire. I will not cease from mental fight, Nor shall my sword sleep in my hand Till we have built Jerusalem In England's green and pleasant land.
$DMYD & Genius Sports: Index for Sports Betting with Strong Tail Winds
DMYD & Genius Sports: Index for Sports Betting with Strong Tail Winds
SPAC's nowadays run up to $15, $20, $25 on merger announcement. Shitty, obscure SPACs with poor fundamentals and obscure business models are all the rage the past few weeks. Investor presentation linked before the DD:https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e33152a051d2e7588f7571c/t/5f98173a9643aa67a4ced693/1603802943090/GSG+PIPE+Presentation+%2827-Oct-2020%29.PDF As everyone has noticed, SPACs have put investors on notice in 2020. With massive liquidity in the markets today, tons of money has been flowing into speculative SPAC investments this year. Given that retail investors have no chance to profit from traditional IPOs that hit the market after a 100% run up (ABNB, DASH, AI, U, etc.) SPACs have presented an excellent opportunity to evaluate and invest in new companies before they actually hit the market. Personally, I have made fantastic returns through a number of SPACs. That being said, not all SPACs are created equal. Some legitimate mature companies and high growth disrupters have emerged through SPACs: UTZ, DraftKings, ChargePoint, OpenDoor, Virgin Galactic, Eos Energy, and Butterfly are just a few examples. However, many SPACs are performance chasing the EV hype by pursuing multi billion dollar acquisitions of EV start ups with 0 revenue for the forseeable future. I say good luck. However, how often do you find a diamond in the rough? A SPAC with a definitive agreement, near NAV and outstanding fundamentals? Oh, and did i mention that they only have one competitor? One SPAC with massive upside potential at a conservative valuation is DMYD-Genius Sports. First, who is DMYD? dMY Technology Group https://www.dmytechnology.com/team is led by CEO Niccolo de Masi, the former CEO of Glu Mobile. De Masi has consummated 25+ mergers and raised more than $1B in funding for various ventures. He seems to have a knack for the mobile/gaming sector, as his first SPAC: DMYT is taking Rush Street, an igaming company, public. De Masi is a veteran of this sector, which makes Genius Sports Group an interesting target.
Genius Sports Group is one of two large sports data providers (the other being SportRadar) that collects and sells live data to sports books. This is incredibly important, as live betting needs constantly adjusted lines to reflect real time game updates. Genius Sports currently has contracts with the NCAA, PGA, NASCAR, FIBA, EPL, Bundesliga, and NBA, among other leagues, to be their sole or primary data provider. These partnerships have staying power, as these leagues are unlikely to change partners once they are locked in for multiyear contracts. Additionally, acquiring rights to official league data is expensive, thus making a high barrier of entry for new competitors. They have 220 customers including DraftKings, FanDuel, William Hill, MGM, PointsBet, and Caesars. Important to note: Genius takes 5% of revenues of events they cover from ALL sports books. https://geniussports.com/home/partners/
Genius is above other SPACs due to its mature market position and strong financials.
The company has been growing at a 30% CAGR over the last several years, with revenue growing 250% from 2016 to 2020 ($42M to $145M). 60% of revenue is recurring due to multi year contracts, and the top 10 customers only account for 30% of revenue, thus lowering flight risk of any particular customer. Genius is already EBITDA positive with 10% margins this year, and anticipates $68M in adjusted EBITDA (adjusted to ignore stock based compensation, a non-cash expense) with 29% margins in two years.
Why Genius Sports?
Genius has a clear economic moat built around: Proprietary technology to track and record in-game statistics on behalf of major sports leagues, in exchange for data rights 7,000+ statisticians and agents on the ground, managing 240K+ events per year Highly customizable software that manages every aspect of a sportsbook’s data and trading offering, including advertising and streaming services Long-term contracts with sports leagues and customers Significant opportunity for inorganic growth via M&A Highly fragmented market for technology, content and media within sports ripe for consolidation to boost growth outside of plan. Genius Sports
Genius Sports
Genius is above other SPACs due to its mature market position and strong financials. The company has been growing at a 30% CAGR over the last several years, with revenue growing 250% from 2016 to 2020 ($42M to $145M). 60% of revenue is recurring due to multi year contracts, and the top 10 customers only account for 30% of revenue, thus lowering flight risk of any particular customer. Genius is already EBITDA positive with 10% margins this year, and anticipates $68M in adjusted EBITDA (adjusted to ignore stock based compensation, a non-cash expense) with 29% margins in two years. In a year where sports were disrupted by Covid, Genius still grew revenue from $116M to $145M. They also successfully resigned their contract with the NBA, ensuring a multi-year partnership with the premiere US basketball league. Outside of the betting market, Genius’s ability to aggregate data has led to an interesting agreement with the NCAA. Until 2018, live data with college sports was incredibly inefficient. Genius signed a contract with the NCAA to create a new software: NCAA Live statistics https://geniussports.com/sports/sportsmanagement/ncaa-case-study/. This is a uniform software for all divisions of college sports. As a former college athlete myself, I reached out to some of the athletic support staff from my University. They raved about how Genius has improved efficiency and accuracy for college athletics. NCAA Live statistics has overhauled the entire industry. And as New York is in the works of legalizing sports betting, this will explode soon. Genius Sports also has an impressive amount of customers and partnerships, and even more exclusive ones coming each week. Which ones below do you recognize?; with over 700 partners you're bound to know a few of them. Some of Genius Sports major customers. Basketball: NBA, NCAA, March Madness Soccer: FIFA, Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga Golf: PGA, LPGA, European Tour Racing: NASCAR Online Sportsbooks: DraftKings & Fanduel Traditional Sportsbooks: MGM, Caesars, SkyBet, William Hill Likely Future Partner: Rush Street Gaming (DMYT)
Currently up 63% YTD, also went public with the same deal team (DMY)
More and more customers coming in each week. they only lost 1 customer in last 3 years, and shortly after that customer RETURNED to Genius Sports. talk about real life FOMO, 'eh?
Financials & Trading Dynamics
Financials
Already makes $140M+ in revenue AND is profitable, with $14M in 2020 EBITDA
Growing at 30% CAGR, with $230M revenue and $68M EBITDA by 2022
$500M+EBITDApotential in the horizon
Customer contracts have guaranteed minimums with upside on usage. The majority of 2020 revenue is locked infor 3-4 years on average
Only ever lost one customer in the past three years
Trading dynamics
Deal was overlooked because it was announced just before the election (10/27/20), one of the worst trading weeks for the entire market
Reddit following has been limited and Stocktwits nonexistent
If Genius Sports were to trade at similar 2022E revenue multiple of 19x as Draftkings, it would imply a stock price of $24-25
Additionally, with Pfizer’s vaccine approval, there is little to no risk of massive sports cancellations in the future. Genius still grew revenue during Covid’s massive disruption. I imagine that the revenue numbers for 2021 will be fantastic. Now let’s focus on the stock movement and valuation. Genius is valued as $1.4B, or 7.4x 2021 revenues. For a company with high CAGR and an industry with massive tailwinds, this seems like a fair, or cheap valuation. Note that Genius is trading at a steep discount to lower margin businesses such as sportsbooks Golden Nugget, DraftKings, and Penn. https://twitter.com/ShortsHoward/status/1336686975554744320?s=20 Thanks to @ShortsHoward on Twitter. While investors have been chasing the next hot EV IPO, Genius has slowly climbed from $10 to $13. Last summer, a rumored FEAC-SportRadar merger led to FEAC pumping to $15+. SportRadar was worth $2.8B in 2018, presenting 60% upside from Genius’ current price to reach its competitor’s 2018 valuation! DMYD and Genius announced their merger in late October during a market downturn, thus letting it go overlooked. I think this is a sleeper SPAC that will have a massive influx of news in Q1, as its merger aligns with the climax of college basketball and the beginning of March Madness. A single Benzinga article pumped the stock by almost 20% last week. https://preview.redd.it/h27vod4pet461.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e7aad17d449e85642fd43b4919d025fbd42f4e9 Consistent growth Last week, Genius Sports scored an exclusive partnership with the German Tennis Federation:
This is just one of the many partnerships Genius bring in. For example, a few days prior to this they scored a deal for Beach Soccer data. Over 700 partnerships and counting.
Exclusive partnership Do you know who captures and provides the biggest sports betting event of the year - NCAA March Madness - data to sports betting sites?
It's Genius Sports and they'll be closing their merger with $DMYD right before that huge event. ESP March Madness for NCAA Basketball; One of the biggest gambling events of the year. The event occurs in Q1, which perfectly ties in with the merger with DMY Technology Group, Inc. II, $DMYD. Merger Q1 2021.
I also think the NCAA presents the biggest upside catalyst for Genius: March Madness. March Madness was cancelled due to the pandemic last year, but betters placed $4.8B in bets on the tournament in 2019. Who has a monopoly on NCAA data? Genius. Who gets a 5% revenue share from ALL sports books for NCAA events? Genius. With the number of states with legalized betting doubling from 2018 to 2020, we could see upwards of $10B spent on March Madness this year. Along with March Madness, secular tailwinds for sports betting suggest high upside for Genius moving forward. 46 out of 50 states have either passed or presented legislation to legalize sports betting. As states such as NY, CA, TX, and FL legalize betting, revenues streams will swell. Data will become increasingly important in this industry as live updates are constantly moving betting lines for books. With multi-year contracts with half of the US’s professional leagues, Genius serves as an index for the entire industry. On top of that; just a few weeks ago Canada legalized sports betting; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/trudeau-government-moves-to-legalize-single-event-sports-betting NCAA
Positions:
166K worth, 100% of portfolio. Personally, I am long $166k in DMYD stock, and have no intention of selling anytime soon. Always do your own DD, but I hope this post helps. PT $18-20 EOM. TLDR: Long DMYD as its a sleeping giant near NAV. There are currently no Arbs holding this down, so its primed to explode. Small float aswell. Only one competitor, Sportsradar. And SR is not even publically traded on any market. Merger Q1 2021. Market cap around $2B currently "it's as undervalued as Tesla, both should go up at least 50% from here" - Warren Buffett.
JoJo's Bizarre OC Tournament #5: Round 3 Match 9 - Jacob Brown vs William Eyelash - William Eyelash vs Jacob Brown
The results are in for Match 7. Espiritu was not okay. It had gone dark, and he was no longer certain what was going on around him. It was hard to stand, and he was hot and hurting, and the crowd and the calls of the content creator after every play were noise to him, in the Necropolis he had tried to make. He knew there were seconds left, now, and did not even know what was to happen. So, into the void, he began to call out with his Stand. “This is a waste of time!” Hurt. “You have been rash, and done no good, and you care even less than I do!” He trembled, barely able to stand. “You say you are preparing me, but you have done nothing but hurt! Nothing but take! You have manipulated some child to play with lives! You, foolish… You don’t even mean to give her what you promised in the end, do you? Only another liar, who thinks I need another problem, and has become one.” Bang said nothing, wherever he was. Espiritu had hoped he was far away. The young man had been fighting relentlessly and calling it a lesson. If it was a joke, it only made the jaguar want to cry. “Manipulated..? Is… Is this me?” Nebula spoke from her screens, whatever she saw clearly giving her pause, then. “This is your stage. Your egoism. Your lie to harm and call it kindness.” The Stand’s voice was faltering, flickering. Then, Nebula’s pep returned with a snap. “Oh, hey, look at that, folks and five-year-olds, it’s TIME!” Airhorns blared, then, and Espiritu recoiled once more. “Of course, you probably have working eyes if you’re watching this, so I don’t need to tell you who has the key! What a show, am I right?” Nebula said, some forcedness to her cheer. I don’t care… I don’t care who won. This… This was a waste. Let it be someone else’s. Someone who is not doomed to fail… I… I simply wish to live. Is that too much to ask? Espiritu gave a final anguished roar before, finally, the pain he had sustained had become too much. His legs gave out, and he collapsed on the steps of City Hall. The winner is Espiritu del Alocatlal, with a score of 72 to Bang “Boogie” Bronson’s 71!
Category
Winner
Point Totals
Comments
Popularity
Masters of Funky Action
13-17
A last-minute vote turned a tied-up match into a 5-4, and even under the circumstances, judges saw no reason to discount it. A disclaimer, though: we can only count votes if we see them, so sometimes it is possible for automod to give us hell. Let judges know in the future if you’re uncertain whether or not your vote was noticed and counted!
In the future, there will be very harsh penalties on anybody going over judges’ heads to privately press people to delete or change the outcome of their votes. Wasn’t anywhere else that felt like the right spot to mention that.
“Well, chat, sorry to say,” Evelyn pointed out, “but the audience favorite laser-artist couldn’t quite cut it! Laser collection is way too 2000s, especially without a good way to take back the key! And where oh where did Espiritu send that file?” She revealed her empty hands. “I don’t even have the folder anymore! It’s wherever he had it go!” “S-so… In the end, my gamble didn’t pay off, huh?” Bang muttered to himself, walking closer to Espiritu as the floating triangle over his head faded entirely. He crouched over him, waving a hand before his eyes and realizing, quickly, that they were registering nothing. He had blinded the jaguar. “Well… I don’t know that yet.” Bang stood, then, looking down over him, the artist himself sore and nicked up, but in much better condition physically. “You… Y-you might not know it yet, but ‘conflict’ like this… It is necessary, you know. It’s… I-it’s the only way any of us will see the end of this, by pushing one another through. I won’t be the last to scar you.” Espiritu whimpered at that, and before Bang could monologue more, Wrenn Aflight’s singsongy voice piped in, “hey, Lou ran off to do something, but she wanted me to pass a message along, and like a good boyfriend, I agreed~!” “Hm?” Bang turned his head slowly. “Wh-what could that-” WHAP! Wrenn’s Stand drove a rocky hand across Bang’s face, sending him hurtling into the pavement with some force and releasing a good bit of glitter. Tilting his head, he said, “‘and maybe don’t torture animals on a livestream!’ That was part of it too.” Bang was caught off-guard, already worn and out of it, sneering the way of the others present and how the eyes and cheers of the crowd had turned on him from their peak. He needed to make a getaway. “And Espiritu, if you’re listening… She’s sorry she didn’t stop this right away. She wants to talk later.” Wrenn gave a cutesy curtsy to the big monitors, then, adding, “hey, Nebula! Wanna collab sometime? We could play Fivetnite or Shoal Calibur Zero instead of all this!” In her dimly-lit room, Evelyn Ensanar watched the strike with a snicker, then stroked her chin quizzically. “Whoa, pog! I make a face reveal and immediately get invited to collab with you… Well, better look out! By the end of it, I’m totally gonna be more popular than you!” That forced grin was becoming easier, as she motioned a neck-slitting. “So there! I’ll take you down on your own channel like a bitter rival, Aflight!” “Heheh, you don’t stand a chance~!” Wrenn gave a cutesy wave, then, before the stream of city hall was cut off, and Nebula’s feed instead showed some console’s startup screen with the revealed user’s head in the corner. Before Evelyn could continue, however, they heard revving outside, putting her headset down. “Just a minute, guys. Gotta check on something… I swear, if I got swatted…” She looked past the curtain in front of the open window, then, seeing that pink-haired girl get off a motorcycle, Councillor Ray stretching his legs close behind. They’d clearly come alone. I guess… Espiritu wanted me to have this? Ray pondered, looking over the folder. Lou had said that she’d realized where that stream was taking place… Somehow, and then led him there quick as she could, insisting to take the lead. My coworkers’ secrets are my responsibility… Why did that Slums cult have this, and how did Bang get it? “Evelyn Ensanar!” ‘Lou’ Reed called out through cupped hands on the lawn, seeing the younger girl peeking through the broken window. “Come out, please! You don’t need to wallow like this!” “…” Evelyn couldn’t help but snicker at that. This girl didn’t look too much older than her, and who the hell was she kidding? Of course Evelyn was happy, living within these four walls, in this home downtown. She’d just had her biggest event ever, and she was being downtalked by someone who walked out of it because a poor widdle kitty got hurt trying to fight someone. “You don’t think you can trust anyone, is that it? Even now, after an older boy led you along, only to hurt people when you thought you wanted the same thing, some part of you is calling out, ‘this isn’t right,’ right? I understand… I’ve been through that! I’ve pushed people away because I needed them most! But… Don’t indulge the void, please. Don’t feed that worst instinct… I swear, if you come out, greet the world, it won’t tear you apart. You’re bright, you’re good… You can be you so much better, I promise you.” Evelyn stayed silent through that, peering with one eye past the curtain. No… That totally didn’t hit the nail on the head. It was just a passing impulse, a joke on herself, the momentary urge to truly step out as requested. Who did this idiotic ‘Angel’ think she was? Evelyn knew, in that moment, she would be happy like this forever. She pulled away from the curtain, then, pressing a button, and shutters completely overtook every entrance to the house, gating her off from the attempt to reach in. With a sigh and a shake of their head, Nebula laughed, putting her headset on and returning to her seat. “Sorry about this, pals! Typical ‘cringeler’ behavior over that last big show, you know? But no more interruptions, yeah?” That smile grew even wider, even more comfortable, as the outside’s natural lighting dimmed to what faint flickers made it past the metal. “Let’s game the night away.” Nothing was gained from this event. No lessons were learned. Only hurt, and hope that maybe, the future might not be so cruel. More live-streamed intrigue waits in the wings of a televised fencing battle for the continuation of an entire team. There’s only a few hours left to vote in that as of when this post goes up, so get to it! Scenario: Midnight Sun College Town - The Streets Somewhere or Whatever. Late Morning A light snowfall had dusted the ground all across the College Town, covering everything in a faint layer of white about an inch thick. People were selling hot drinks in the streets, kids were running around in it, tossing snowballs, and adults were shivering as they made it through their day roughly as normal. One youth in particular walked aimlessly along a snowy sidewalk, shivering and shoving his hands into his pockets, feeling on edge as he watched his breath fog visibly in the cold air. At least he had layers at all, though it could have been leagues better. It wasn’t something you would go for a long walk in the snow in, but William Eyelash wasn’t exactly prepared for his daylong errant errand to take him into snowy weather. After all, it wasn’t snowing at all in the Slums, or basically anywhere else West of the Wormwood River. By all he could gather, it was just the College Town, and nobody in this city had even seen fit to remark on the odd sort of localization. He had begun to make peace with Ocean Eyes not as some malevolent entity he needed to control, but as a part of him, an extension of himself, and it had indeed legitimately calmed the beast down somewhat, at least in recent days made the ferociousness of it all his own. He had thought that plenty, then, to live his life, only to learn the nature of what had last month defeated a coworker of his; a woman whose Stand, and whatever of her it represented, had become so misaligned from the user that it had actively fought against her wishes. The thought of that happening to Ocean Eyes, of having even less control over this part of himself, brought a chill up William’s spine worse than any blizzard, so he thought that he might find something of worth to his desires there… Though he didn’t really have any particular plan, beyond ambling about, seeing what the most Stand-centric district of the Stand-centric city could offer, perhaps having a fated run-in with somebody who could give him answers. “Snow looks… Nice, at least,” he remarked through a shiver, loving the way the settled white coated everything… And then tensing up as, out of an alley, red stains of crimson passionate cutting spilled out abruptly over it. Not so long ago, William would have turned away in abject terror from a sight like that, or if pursued, his Stand would have come out and made it hell for those who set him off. But he’d gotten some life-changing advice from one of the city’s worst serial killers, seen a self-styled aggressive villain literally set best-laid malicious plans alight. Even if there was danger here… Maybe there was value in seeking it out. He tensed, slightly, then, when he saw a man in an officer’s uniform, slumped behind a diner, hands hacked off, stumps bleeding, with cut after cut after cut in his body, eyes rolled back and bleeding from the tongueless mouth. Grisly… William shivered even more, then, before realizing that there was a presence behind him, turning his head slowly with his nerves on high alert. Standing behind him, smiling, with a strange-looking knife in hand, was a boy only a year or two his junior. He wore a green sweater with a yellow stripe across its center, which was stained red like his hands, and a pair of bright, cheerful eyes poked past his brown bangs, perfectly matching the smile on his face. William could’ve sworn he’d seen him somewhere before. “Y-you… Did. Did you kill this man?” “Yep!” The youth answered, twirling the knife around, pointing to the corpse and stepping on his fingers buried in the snow. “He was telling horrible, horrible lies about me, see… Said that I cut his hands off, that it was his fault that he died. Now, I know some people came back, but this is a man I’ve never seen in my life! He pointed a gun at my head here, said he wouldn’t miss when he fired so close, so I didn’t let him. Then, that lie about his hands, his death… I just made it true!” William was confused, his heart rate skyrocketing at the casual way in which this boy paced around as he spoke, twirling his knife. But… He was threatened, by the sound of it, and there was a certain purity, honesty, in the way that he spoke. This mutilated officer had it coming. “W-well… That sounds nerve-wracking. I’m, uh… Sorry you had to go through that.” “Oh, don’t worry for me!” The youth reassured, “sixteen years in this city and counting, you get quite used to seemingly-fine people revealing their true, rotten colors, attacking you when they seem to play the part of something upstanding.” He tilted his head, shaking it. “I can’t stand it at all, but… It makes it all the sweeter to put an end to it, you know?” “I… You’re talking about killing people, you know that, right?” William asked. “That’s… That’s something you can never take back. To put it so lightly…” “Do you have a problem with that?” Very quickly, then, the youth was leaning up close to him, putting the knife near his flesh, and William tensed up, not wanting to hurt this kid as he teased him. “L-look… If any part of me wanted to impede you, or stop you,” William answered, “you would’ve been dead before you could bring that thing close to me. I’m… Still trying to control an ‘ability’ of my own.” “I see, I see… So you’re another Stand User!” The youth pulled back, then, clearly pleased with the nerve William had had to stand still through that attempt to terrify him, to shock him into action. “What do you say we be friends?” The knife vanished, then, and he held out his hand. “My name is Jacob Brown, but you may call me a nickname if you’d like.” William nodded, cautiously accepting and shaking his hand. “Jacob Brown, huh..?” He swore he’d heard that name around before. “Then, uh… I dunno. If you really want a nickname that bad… I dunno. Jack, maybe?” “‘Jack…’ It has a nice ring to it!” The boy agreed, shaking his hand fervently. “And you?” “Call me William Eyelash… Or, uh, any abbreviation, I guess, though nobody really does.” Elsewhere in the College Town, at exactly the same time… Jacob Brown was laying in a snowy park, looking up at the cool sky in the imprint of his own little snow angel, which he’d even made time to give little knife-shaped embeddings through holding ‘Megalo Strike Back’ at just the right angle. His life had continued to go well, as it had been since that fateful day so many months ago, where he’d toned back his killing urges, had still not once taken a life since, so not to disappoint the promise he and his friends had shared with that long-dead artist, having since befriended others and learned more about the mysteries of this place. Los Fortuna was nice… Nice as it was fleeting, and strange. Earlier that morning he’d literally danced between the border of the College Town and the Agricultural District, one foot in an inch of snow, the other on dry grass, then posed triumphantly for Richard Stone to sketch, flexing alongside that new Bert blob which Casey and he-whose-name-ruins-Jacob’s-mood had nursed back to health. Just as he’d started to fondly recall that fine early-morning moment, a pile of snow blinked with a single black dot of an eye, then emerged from a snowbank just meters away from Jack, looking as though it had found something urgent. “Oh? What’s that now?” Jacob sat up, adjusting his jacket, and walked towards the bank in question, clearing away its topmost layer with a single expert swipe of ‘Megalo Strike Back.’ A couple’s mangled, half-melted corpses spilled out in a goopy pile, then, reaching his feet in a grotesque entanglement which Jacob regarded with little more than a sigh, shaking his head. “Sloppy sloppy… Though, I feel like I’ve seen dead bodies like this on the local news…” He turned towards his team’s new cute mascot character, waving him off. “It’s been fun, little one, but I think it may be a bit spicy for you. Go back home and fix yourself some Oops! All Berries and cigarette ash in dishwater… With a little Neapolitan on top of course!” The white blob’s favorite… Though it only ever seemed to eat the vanilla and strawberry. More chocolate ice cream for Jacob, anyway. With that, then, the odd proto-Bert slinked away through the snow, blending in effortlessly as Jacob, in turn, took on the part of a sleuth, imagining a cool hat and pipe and miming them idly as he prepared to look into- Ah. There were footprints in the snow clearly moving away from the bank, deeper into the park. Jacob would start there! A not-so-long trek later, then, Jacob found a tree, whereby the footprints had seemed to end, but he heard shivering, and then somebody dropping down not far behind him in a panic, trying to tepidly back away. Whoever it was, though, froze when Jacob turned his head and gave a smiling grin. Standing behind him, absolutely terrified, was a boy only a year or two his junior. He wore a black bomber jacket with three blue dots going down the left arm and a singular orange dot over the right bosom, blue-dotted pants, and a t-shirt clearly stained either with sweat, melted snow, or both. His demeanor was a timid, terrified one, a pair of eyes like a cornered beast poking past his mess of black hair, perfectly matching the look of mortification on his face. “Uh… I’m… Uh.” “Pardon the intrusion!” Jacob said, cheerfully, “but do you mind if we talk a little bit?” “…” The boy looked like he wanted to die a little bit, stepping backwards again. “My name is Jacob Brown, and I couldn’t help but notice that pair of melted bodies a little ways back. Quite the conversation piece, don’t you think?” “I… I-I.” “Come on now, I won’t get you in trouble and leave you to hang! I don’t do that!” Jacob assured. “All I ask from people is ‘honesty.’ It’s very easy to tell the truth, I think, if people just did it. So… Let’s start with an easy question, to show I don’t mean harm. What’s your name?” “Uh… Ell- I mean, Wil- uh…” The boy paused, as if not used to the answer he was about to give himself. “Eyelash… W-William Eyelash.” “William…” Someone trying on a new name didn’t need to be a lie, Jacob understood. Just a new truth to get used to. “I’ll just call you ‘Billy,’ okay? Okay!” Jacob smiled, and before Billy could comment, continued, “how long have you been in the city? Quite the sight, such localized snow…” “Uh… M-my whole life, basically… Look, please, just. Just leave me alone. Please, don’t keep pressing, I-” “Billy, I’m telling you, I’m trying to help you out here! I know, not everybody can get used to their powers as easy as I did, and when you’re so alone all you can do is run out into a tree, clearly you don’t have anyone helping you through it! So I’ll help you.” “H-help… You. You mean to say-” “Yep!” Jacob admitted, head tilting and tilting and tilting. “Not so long ago, I killed people all the time.” That was Billy’s breaking point, and he immediately turned tail and absolutely booked it away. Even a trained FBI ace probably couldn’t keep up with that. But Jacob Brown was pretty good at running. He skidded to a halt in front of Billy, putting a calming hand on his shoulder. “Hey, c’mon… Bodies aren’t that way. You’ll get caught if you run without cleaning up your mess, or be so focused on running you could trip and fall down an elevator shaft!” That seemed to scare Billy into a sort of forced calm, just as a truly monstrous-looking Stand almost lashed out. There was an odd sort of soothingness to Jacob Brown’s confidence, it seemed. “Let me show you how, now, alright? It’s easy when you know the trick! Then we can take a walk.” Snowman Symmetrical Park (No relation to the park from the last scene) Jacob led Billy by the arm through a particularly artsy snow-covered park, one with several mural walls, ponds, and most notably of all, an almost slavish dedication to every single corner of the place, already in the center of the College town and the Metropolitan area as a whole, being completely symmetrical in its structures. “Nice place, isn’t it?” He asked, letting him go and catch his breath. “Professor York, I remember, talked about it once with Chef CaraMel, I’m sure you’ve had her stuff before… They were saying that there’s a sort of ‘meditative’ quality to this place, a nice place to stand in even spots and just admire the scenery. But also that people get really mad if you mess the symmetry up.” “Y… Yeah…” Billy panted, looking around. “I know about this place, but I’ve never taken time to…” He looked around, then, standing and breathing through his nose. “You know, Jacob… You’re right. This, uh… This place isn’t so bad. And, uh… Y-you’re kinda sorta really scary, but. Thanks, for the help, and, uh. Not judging me for what I can’t control…” “Oh, don’t worry about it!” He reassured with a smile, “you’ll figure it out in time, Billy my friend! Why, even just a year ago, I could still be quite sloppy when I-” He noticed, then, that Billy’s look had immediately become, rather than one of cautious relaxation, one that was more confused, more terrified than ever before, murmuring and muttering incoherently. “Hm? Something the matter, pal-o?” “Me… M… M… Why is… No… Nonononononono what the hell what the HELL?!” William had been leading Jack to much the same place, saying to him when asked, “I dunno why I thought to come here… I guess, uh, this Lou girl who I’ve met a couple times, she came by this restaurant I work at with this friend of hers I forget her name, and… I dunno. She said it was meditative, and I’ve got things on my mind too.” “I see, I see… Heheh,” Jack chuckled, teasing, “I’ve been treating you like this cool older figure, but you’re still figuring everything out for yourself, aren’t you? Though I guess that’s true whether you’re seventeen or forty-seven, right?” “Yeah…” William nodded, hands in London’s perma-borrowed jacket pockets. “Th-that is life… Isn’t it? You never really… Stop learning, or growing, and, uh, some parts of you you’ll be contending with for-” He stopped himself from rambling philosophically, then, seeing that Jack had careened his head to something in the slight distance, where the pair had been walking towards and William hadn’t been looking. “Uh… Something wrong, Jack?” “…something is, William, yes,” the younger knife-boy answered, brandishing his Stand. “Something is… Sus.” Jacob and “Jack” Brown stepped towards the center of the park, staring one another down in perfect sync, looking one another over quizzically, the latter and younger much more tense about it than the other. “Your face… Is mine. But I’m not a twin, or a triplet, or even a funny sextuplet. I would certainly remember that.” Jacob remarked, leaning back. “I understand now what that pulled pork sandwich I cut up earlier was on about, I think… Yes, it doesn’t take a Rick, or even a Morty to figure this out,” Jack retorted, brandishing his knife again. “He mistook and attacked me for something you did, after stealing my face!” “I’ve done no such thing,” Jacob answered in turn, “I was born with this…” He produced his own Stand, then, a knife identical to his own. “And this is the ability of ‘Jacob Brown’ to prove it.” “Y-y-you… You…” Billy, cautiously, chattered as he addressed William, looking him over after seeing the identical Stands. “Do you… Have ‘that’ as well? Haunting you… B-burdening your every-” He couldn’t even bear to say it. William, on his own, might have handled this differently, but with Jack so close, he knew that lying would cause even more of a scary situation than telling the truth. Clearly afraid in his own right, then, he shuddered, nodding. “Y-yes… I have ‘Ocean Eyes’ as well. If… I-if that’s what you’re asking.” “Nngnhghhghghhhh..!” Billy had already begun to clutch his fingers in his head. “G-getting worse, then… Getting worse getting worse gettingworsegettingworse… Even if I control it I’ll never control it. I’m… I’m doomeddoomeddoomeddoomed!” “H-hey,” William raised his voice, “you don’t have to be, I promise! I… I-I have no idea what the hell is going on either, but trust me, you can-” But William knew himself, and knew that Billy would not listen to reason. With a bestial cry, another ‘Ocean Eyes’ appeared, lashing out immediately at ‘Jack’ and attempting to spray William. He, in turn, panickedly yet deliberately summoned his own, instinctively thinking to nullify the highly acidic spray with a thick, viscous, protective material, and both ate one another, and nobody was harmed. “My my, what troublesome friends we’ve made…” Jacob remarked, then, hurriedly grabbing William and attempting to pull him away behind cover. “But hey, I’m ride or die! If Billy is your enemy, then I’ll be too! Maybe we can sort this out if we live, ‘kay?” Then, the pair booked it away, leaving William confused, and Jack turning tail as well. “I won’t believe a word of that lying liar’s plan… That impostor has one of you too, William! C’mon now! Fall back so we can cut them to bits before they melt us! You don’t want to fall to an imitation of your own Stand, right?” Imitation… Impostor… Is. *Is** that what’s going on here?* William pondered, falling back nonetheless to a safer spot, well aware that out in the open was the worst place to be when he’d earned Ocean Eyes’ ire. Looks like even the guy who looks like an older Jack is gonna fight, just… J-just because. He shuddered, then, leaning into the back of a wall. It… I-it’s unavoidable again. Then… He shut his eyes. I see. “True or not, the uncontrolled rage of ‘Ocean Eyes’… I can tell you here and now, Jack. That was me. So maybe… M-maybe this was fate too. To finally truly tame that savage urge… Y-yes. Ocean Eyes is my own.” “Think, Billy! That power of yours is so, so strong,” Jacob pep-talked his new friend from behind the cover of one of the structures within the symmetrical park, “and like how my ‘Megalo Strike Back’ speaks to all that I will cut through, anywhere and everywhere… What does Ocean Eyes say about you?” “Say about… A-about me?” “Yes!” Jacob encouraged. “Make a statement to the world! Cry out in your voice! It can be anything, not just a blind anger that forces you to live deceiving yourself! I’ve killed many times, and I’m good at it, and not a sentence of that will ever stop me from doing good by this city, just as I promised! Follow my lead, and see for yourself what all we can do!” OPEN THE GAME! (credit to magistelles for the match art, here you can see the uncensored version of the art(CW: trypophobia)!) Location: Snowman Symmetrical Park. A public park in the center of Midnight Sun’s College Town, and the Los Fortuna Metropolitan Area as a whole. Realized by Andrew Tiffany and his orange nephew, the place has an avid string of volunteers from around the district dedicated to keeping the architecture and nature of the place in perfect symmetry at all times, down to the last blade of grass and every inch of snow covering it. It has snowed recently, but only in the college district, amounting to about 3 centimeters of snow covering the ground evenly. Right now, however, it’s perfectly empty, aside from the four of you. The area here is 30 by 30 meters with each tile being 3 by three meters. The light blue shapes are 3 meter tall structures that serve as mural art walls. Each wall has some symmetric design. The darker blue hexagon is a man made lake/fountain that is half a meter deep. The green circles are 5m tall trees, their tops are lightly covered in snow and there are decorative ornaments hung on the branches. MFA start at the bottom of the map, as represented by the two brown circles and GYS start at the top of the map as represented by the two white circles. Goal: RETIRE your opponents! Additional Information: For this match you will be controlling two characters, both your own and a parallel version of your opponent. In order to win this deathmatch, you have to beat both people on the other team. Players instinctively know who their partners are and anybody that tries to lie or deceive somebody on who they actually are will immediately be retired by both Jacob and his parallel self. This will be a loss for whichever side tries to pull that. For character writing purposes, note that “Jack” and “Billy” are both exactly one year younger than Jacob and William, and recall being born and raised entirely within Los Fortuna. Despite this fact, the most important moments of their lives, with the exception of all that has happened since the latter two arrived here, met their allies, and began participating in the tournament, have more or less been the same. Being younger and less experienced, Jack and Billy respectively have quickly formed a sort of trust in William and Jacob, and will follow their tactical leads and trust their judgment so long as it isn’t grossly out of character. Their appearances differ slightly, as described in the writeup, but statistically, they are completely identical to their counterparts.
“Say, Jotaro. Do that special trick of yours.” This new friend of yours has a future, whether he realizes it or not, and you wish to see him grow by your side. Take inspiration from strategies and elements of previous matches featuring William Eyelash! (first)(second)
“People can do anything when their lives are at stake!” While you mean to overcome your own past, you care about more than your own personal growth here; you’ve also found some worth in the checkered history of this strange youth. Take inspiration from strategies and elements of previous matches featuring Jacob Brown! (first)(second)
Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet Link to Match Schedule As always, if you would like to interact with the tournament community and be among the first to get updates for the tournament, please feel free to PM a member of our Judge staff for an invite to our Official Discord Server!
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