Not many people probably have heard of the Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN) new submarine. They should though because it is one of the most expensive military purchases in history. After a lengthy competition process the attack class submarine program was awarded to the Naval Group, a French company partially owned by the French government and Thales. The total program is expected to cost $AUD 90 Billion for 12 subs, a unit cost of 7.5B each. For comparison the total program cost of the 3 Gerald R Ford Aircraft carriers up till 2018 financial year was less than 40 Billion US (Roughly 52B AUD). These supercarriers are the most expensive ships ever built on a per unit basis around $12.5B USD ($16.5 AUD).

The RAN’s continuing issues.

As an island nation the navy traditionally had a significant influence and budget. At the end of World War 2 the RAN was likely the 4th largest navy in the world after the US, the British and the Canadians after all the axis ships had been sunk to the sea floor. For a long time now though the navy has been plagued with issues, some which have reappeared with the attack class.

The Collins class: Fool me once, shame on me.

The class which is being replaced by the next attack class has suffered its own range of issues. It’s the largest non-nuclear submarine in the world but had massive procurement and mechanical issues. It was commissioned in 1996 18 months after deadline and became operation over 4 years after this in 2000. In its design, testing and early years it was grounded with a range of issues including diesel failures, generators breaking down and batteries leaking. Early on it was notoriously noisy, a disastrous problem for a submarine. A seawater hose broke on the HMAS Dechaineux which nearly lead to the sub sinking. The design of the sub was a collaboration between Swedish Kockums and the Australian Submarine Corporation a state-owned defence company. The collaboration was marked by fighting and poor coordination. It was mostly built in Australia but based off the Swedish designs. Kockums were sued for faulty welding on components made in Sweden that delayed the project significantly and they ended up paying compensation to the government. The combat software system was the biggest problem however. Rockwell was contracted but intellectual property could not be obtained from the proposed partners, so a new system had to be designed on the fly. Rockwell was sold to Boeing but the project was so delayed the old Rockwell system was installed which experts suggested was equivalent to the Oberon class which the Collins were designed to replace.
The navy as whole but especially the submarines have had crippling staffing issues. At one point the Navy only had 40% of the required submariners. By 2008 only 3 submarines could be manned. It is one of the reasons that at one point only 1 out of 6 subs were operational. The frigate HMAS Perth sat in dry dock for 2 years because it didn’t have a crew despite being one of the most expensive ships ever purchased by the navy. By now all the kinks have been worked out and it seems like a decent sub. In recent years (2016-) they have been consistently beating benchmarks for operational readiness and have had low mechanical issues and the cost of repairs has been low. This is one of my favourite videos of all time of a Collins class sub blasting Men at work “down under” on the speakers to let the US navy ships know it had lost in wargaming. https://www.reddit.com/Military/comments/ig2v8australian_submarine_alerts_american_destroyer_it/

Its not just the submarines

Australia doesn’t have a civilian domestic shipbuilding industry. Some small manufactures make sailing boats or small leisure craft but there’s nothing close to heavy shipbuilding and never will be. The defence industry is almost entirely focused on providing for needs at home and so exports are only 7% of defence imports. There are some successes like the Nulka missile decoy which has sold more than a $1B worth to US, Canadian and other navies. But mostly even when a contract is won it ends up pretty terribly. Austal designed and built the independence class littoral combat ships which were one of the biggest disasters in US navy history. The protector class of the royal New Zealand navy were built in Victoria and had to pay a compensatory settlement due to a massive delay caused by the ships weighing 100 Tons more than planned.

The alternatives.

In a lot of ways, the French proposal being chosen was a shock to a lot of analysts. Up to around 2014 it seemed certain that the Japanese Soryu class would be purchased. Conservative PM Tony Abbott and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe had very warm relations and had been trying to try the countries closer together including inking a free trade deal. The former Defense minister David Johnston was the first non-Japanese politician to be allowed aboard a Soryu class sub. Japan has one of the largest submarine fleets in the world and the Soryu is highly rated as maybe the best non-nuclear submarine in service. The Americans were supportive too. An American combat system would be used, and they hoped two of their largest pacific allies operating the same ships would increase naval interoperability. So good were the relations, the Japanese were willing to deliver the same capabilities of the subs they operate rather than a more limited export version. Though the initial wish was for the subs to be bought “off the shelf” and manufactured in japan they were willing to outsource production to Australia too. The Defence minister at the time David Johnston was told 12 subs would cost around $20 billion with the first two subs rolling off the Japanese production line in a year and a half.
This remarkably cheaper price isn’t unrealistic. Indonesia imported 3 South Korean subs for less than 2B unit cost. The smaller south Korean Dosan Ahn Chang is even cheaper under $1B USD with vertically launched cruise missiles. There was some talk that the US was even open to exporting or leasing Virginia class subs though nuclear power was rejected at face value by leaders. The more capable nuclear-powered subs are still much cheaper. The US navy recently in Dec 2019 ordered 9 for 22B USD around $29B AUD. Though the previous collaboration with Sweden was messy, their subs are highly rated with the US leasing one and its crew to train against modern capable diesel electric subs. With their previous experience building subs in Australia and being extremely cheap with the Swedes purchasing the first 2 A-26’s for under $1B each with later units expected to be even cheaper, it’s shocking they weren’t invited to submit a proposal.

Why did the government pick the French proposal in 2016 when they are trying to rip up the contract today?

Design overreach. A common phrase in the testing phase was that the navy wanted a diesel electric sub with the capabilities of a nuclear-powered sub. This is an oxymoron and on its face stupid. Technology limits the range of an electric sub, but endurance seems to have been prioritised over every other attribute. It makes some sense. Australia is enormous and there are long distances to the south china sea and parts of the Indian ocean which have strategic importance. However, this causes drain on the sailors, morale, and mission effectiveness. The submarines are based in Perth and Collins class subs spent half their time in transit to and from the south china sea. This led to the RAN having much longer deployments than typical for other navies. Expanding the naval base in Darwin to be closer to the action or operating out of allied bases in Asia could potentially solve some of these problems at a much cheaper cost. There was extremely big talk about the navy wanting regional superiority in submarine design. Potentially they thought it possible to domestically build something better than subs already operating in Japanese and South Korean Navies.
Politics
The winner was announced prior to the election in 2016. The Naval shipyard is in Adelaide and some speculate the liberals in power feared a bloodbath in South Australia if most of the subs were built overseas or entirely outside Australia. By the end of the proposal process it seems like allowing naval shipbuilding to survive was an imperative in the process. In Announcing the winner Malcolm Turnbull described the attack class as “Australian subs with Australian steel”.
Prematurely killing the competition.
The French proposal was accepted before even the final cost was known. Much of the design had not been fully completed before the French proposal had won and they had essentially monopoly power.
Lack of civilian oversight.
The French proposal claimed to be an existing submarine. A non-nuclear version of the French Barracuda class. However, the successful proposal essentially is a completely new design with all the required changes of design overreach from the Navy’s requirements and the completely different drivetrain and engine. The design alone has been $4B in costs which essentially could’ve been eliminated by buying Soryu’s or another European proposal.
Idiocy
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute highlighted some critics issues with the Japanese purchase. Spoiler alert they’re all incredibly stupid. “Australia would be choosing sides in Asian security and would risk being drawn into a future conflict”. We have chosen sides already. We’re pro democracy. Would be to the “Detriment of Australia’s important economic and security relationship with China”. China is always going to want our Iron ore no matter what criticism we have of them. Also kowtowing to china would make us unpalatable to Japan, south Korea and Taiwan, ie every ally we have in Asia.” “Australia would effectively be helping japan to remilitarise”. That’s kind of the point having Japan be less reliant on the US would serve our own interests and keep china in check more. (I realize japan has some constitutional difficulty in military operating overseas and a past history of militarism but still stupid argument)

Trouble brewing

A Jan 21st report in the Australian Financial review said that top defence officials were considering cancelling the sub project and that the PM was exasperated over cost overruns and delays. There was been large tensions between Canberra and France over the project with the French seemingly reluctant to part with intellectual property. There seems to be big issues between Naval Group and its Australian subsidiary.
The former boss of the submarine project Jean-Michel Billig stepped down abruptly after only 3 years in charge. The AFR report announcing his departure last November pointed out that few in the government will be sad to see him go. The report suggests he is being moved back to France to work on a different project.
The cost has already spiraled “While Defence had anticipated this stage would cost about $2.5 billion to $3 billion, it is understood Naval Group's costing is about 50 per cent higher, shocking the government.”.
The delays have already significantly kicked in. “While Defence wanted the commitment incorporated in the Strategic Partnering Agreement by Christmas 2020, former Naval Group executive Jean-Michel Billig had signaled it could take until 2022.”.
Ironically what may sink the agreement is disagreements over how much production occurs domestically. The French Shipyard in Le Havre a few years back seemed to not have lowered its workforce at all even though that was expected given most production should occur in Adelaide.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/shot-across-the-bows-on-submarine-contract-20210117-p56uo9

Turning the Navy around: The uneducated opinion of a non-military member

I’ve seen some numbers that the penalty for cancelling the project to be only $400 million. Compared to just the design overruns this seems a bargain to get out from this looming disaster. The French were trying to export a similar sub to the Dutch and I would be shocked if they saw the clown show that’s occurring and wanted to join in.
The sub choice was objectively stupid in 2016 and the process was screwed up long before then (especially not even inviting the Swedes who are involved with your current subs). Hopefully we can grovel back to the Japanese and apologize for being dumbasses and just blame the French for everything (though its obviously largely a self-inflicted wound). I think politicians overstate the political consequences of admitting mistakes in semi obscure navy matters.
The dumbest reason to pick the French sub is that they won’t be operational until the mid-2030’s. Again, the Soryu’s could’ve been rolling out of the Japanese dockyards 18 months after a contract was signed. Because of the long production there’s going to be a pretty bad capability gap. We’ll either have to spend billions upgrading subs that we’ll decommission in a few years anyway or we’ll have subs designed in the 80’s trying to check Chinese aggression in the south China sea in the mid 2030’s. These costs of upgrades could be as much as 20B and would’ve been completely unnecessary if we were already operating Soryu’s. If you add that to the 90B price tag you get a 110B dollar naval program for 12 submarines or about as much as 68!!!!! Arleigh Burke frigates built to date by the US navy.
We have fucked around for so long we could actually buy the Soryu class replacement the Taigei class which will be commissioned in 2022. These cutting-edge lithium battery powered subs are being bought by the Japanese at less than $1B AUD each.
If politicians are too cowardly to admit previous mistakes this may literally be one of the most expensive military programs of all time behind the F35 fighter plane and the US supercarriers.
I expect Australia in the end to build the most expensive submarines in history on a per unit basis even when adjusted for inflation. This is despite the fact they are non-nuclear and don’t have vertical launch systems for cruise missiles.

Unordered bibliography

https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/sea/defence-minister-rebuffs-submarine-critics
https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/insights/Australias-Next-Submarine-Did-We-Get-It-Right
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/maritime-antisub/4306-japan-begins-development-of-next-generation-attack-submarines
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/australias-submarine-purchase-flawed-regional-politics-taints-technically-right-outcome/
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep04096?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents 28 page Australian Strategic Policy Institute report.
https://www.reddit.com/AustralianMilitary/comments/l0cox2/shot_across_the_bows_on_submarine_contract/ (Reddit non paywall version of the AFR 2021 report)
https://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/214457/french-boss-of-australian-submarine-program-replaced.html

The disturbing true history of animal-human hybrid experiments in the 90s and early 21st century, and the controversial scientist at the center of it.

Warning: The following relates events that some might find disturbing.

In November of 1998, Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. (ACT) succeeded in manufacturing a human-cow hybrid for the purpose of proving that it was possible to derive stem cells from an animal-human hybrid, from which to grow various tissues and organs that could be human enough to be given to humans in need of replacement organs and tissues. Stem cells, which were and perhaps are still considered by many to be available only in embryos, are wonderful cells that can develop into any organ or tissue. The hybrid, which was aborted twelve days after conception, had been the result of the implantation of human DNA into a cow's egg whose own DNA had been removed. A chemical had been added to spur meiosis. The scientists seemed to be using animal eggs instead of human eggs because animal eggs were easier to obtain. In contrast, the DNA inserted into the emptied egg could have been taken from anywhere within any part of the human donor’s body – in the case of this human-cow hybrid, the DNA had come from a man’s leg.[1] (In a 2006 BBC report[2], I found a reference to how human such a hybrid would be: “The resulting embryo would be 99.9% human; the only bovine element would be DNA outside the nucleus of the cell.” However, a 2007 report by CBC News[3], the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, wrote that it would be “99.5 per cent human.”)
It was revealed in October of the next year that BioTransplant, Inc., in the USA, and Stem Cell Sciences in Australia had been producing pig-human hybrids. Pigs' organs, of course, are genetically and functionally very similar to those of humans, and so one can understand why they would have been selected. The resulting pig-humans had been aborted after "around a week."[4]
Fast-forward to 2003. Though they would not reveal it until 2005, scientists at the Shanghai Second Medical University in China produced human-animal hybrids consisting not of cows or pigs, but rabbits. "They were allowed to develop for several days in a laboratory dish before the scientists destroyed the embryos to harvest their stem cells."[5]
By 2004, things had become unspeakably bizarre. "In Minnesota," wrote Rick Weiss for the Washington Post[6], "pigs are being born with human blood in their veins. In Nevada, there are sheep whose livers and hearts are largely human. In California, mice peer from their cages with human brain cells firing inside their skulls." By now, such creatures had become known as chimeras (it might be best if you reread that word and imagine thunder rumbling ominously). Regarding the idea of endowing animals with human brain cells, such as the aforementioned mice, Reiss recalled:

The potential power of chimeras as research tools became clear about a decade ago in a series of dramatic experiments by Evan Balaban, now at McGill University in Montreal. Balaban took small sections of brain from developing quails and transplanted them into the developing brains of chickens.
The resulting chickens exhibited vocal trills and head bobs unique to quails, proving that the transplanted parts of the brain contained the neural circuitry for quail calls. It also offered astonishing proof that complex behaviors could be transferred across species.

Meanwhile, wrote Weiss, Dr. Irving Weissman of Stanford University's Institute of CanceStem Cell Biology and Medicine expressed interest in producing mice whose brains did not possess some human brain cells, but were composed entirely of them:

He proposes keeping tabs on the mice as they develop. If the brains look as if they are taking on a distinctly human architecture – a development that could hint at a glimmer of humanness – they could be killed, he said. If they look as if they are organizing themselves in a mouse brain architecture, they could be used for research.

Just a few months later, National Geographic News [7] described the ongoing research of Dr. Weissman, and quoted him in the context of whether the production of chimeras ought to be outlawed because of ethical concerns:

Irv Weissman, director of Stanford University's Institute of CanceStem Cell Biology and Medicine in California, is against a ban in the United States.
"Anybody who puts their own moral guidance in the way of this biomedical science, where they want to impose their will—not just be part of an argument—if that leads to a ban or moratorium. … they are stopping research that would save human lives," he said.
Weissman has already created mice with brains that are about one percent human.
Later this year he may conduct another experiment where the mice have 100 percent human brains. This would be done, he said, by injecting human neurons into the brains of embryonic mice.
Before being born, the mice would be killed and dissected to see if the architecture of a human brain had formed. If it did, he'd look for traces of human cognitive behavior.

Weissman was soon granted permission to perform the experiment. Just before spring in 2005, scientists at Stanford University announced that they would, indeed, attempt to produce a mouse whose brain cells were entirely human. Wrote James Langton for the Telegraph[8], "Researchers at Stanford University have already succeeded in breeding mice with brains that are one per cent human cells. In the next stage they plan to use stem cells from aborted foetuses to create an animal whose brain cells are 100 per cent human." Granting the team permission to carry out the experiment, Prof. Henry Greely, the head of the university's ethics committee, said that "if the mouse shows human-like behaviours, like improved memory or problem-solving, it's time to stop." (A fear that began to grow among scientists, Langton mentioned, involved human cells spreading to the chimeras' reproductive organs, potentially causing them to produce human eggs or sperm. If these chimeras then mated with each other, it could theoretically result in human embryos being conceived within the wombs of non-humans.) Mysteriously, MSNBC later reported this[9]:

Weissman, who has already created mice with 1 percent human brain cells, said he has no immediate plans to make mostly human mouse brains, but wanted to get ethical clearance in any case. A formal Stanford committee that oversees research at the university would also need to authorize the experiment.

The MSNBC report also referred to bizarre goings-on at the University of Nevada-Reno. Dr. Jason Chamberlain had injected human brain cells into the brain of the fetus of a sheep two months earlier, and would soon euthanize its pregnant mother, extract the unborn chimera, and study it. "He can't wait to examine the effects of the human cells," it said.
By 2007, we were producing sheep that were only 85% sheep, their organs saturated with human cells,[10] and the technique by which chimeras are produced by injecting human cells into animal fetuses was being ironed-out. The Roman Catholic Church had decided to publicly address the production of chimeras. Summarizing the proclamation of the bishops representing the Vatican, Jonathan Petre for the Telegraph wrote[11] that the "bishops, who believe that life begins at conception, said that they opposed the creation of any embryo solely for research, but they were also anxious to limit the destruction of such life once it had been brought into existence." He went on to quote their announcement, which said in part, "At the very least, embryos with a preponderance of human genes should be assumed to be embryonic human beings, and should be treated accordingly."
The entire written statement by the bishops is available for reading.[12]
Bovine humans were produced again by British scientists in 2008[13]. Shortly thereafter, scientists at Newcastle University in Australia announced what was already pretty obvious: the process was easy. In fact, by this point, over 270 chimeras had been produced.[14]
According to BBC News, things looked bleak in 2009 for endeavors in the UK to continue hybrid cloning. Although a push the previous May to outlaw the whole spectrum of animal-human hybrid experimentation had failed, researchers were nevertheless finding it difficult to secure funding and as a result no such experiments were known to be taking place in the UK. There were suspicions that moral convictions were behind this, but these were refuted. In addition, efforts to derive stem cells from adult human tissue were showing promise, potentially negating the necessity for the hybrids. Of note: the estimated humanity of the hybrids had been apparently been recalculated; the creatures were now “some 99% human and 0.1% animal” (this was likely a typo and ought to have read "99% human and 1% animal").[15]
Yet, behind closed doors, human determination was enabling the experiments to continue in Britain after all – cloaked in secrecy. Though it would not be revealed until 2011, these experiments produced over 150 hybrid embryos – all of which were aborted within two weeks of conception.[16]
That revelation came on the heels of a dire warning from the UK’s Academy of Medical Sciences that experiments involving the placement of human brain cells into apes could produce speaking apes whose thought processes displayed traits idiosyncratic to humans. According to the Telegraph[17], the report published by the academy referred to such creatures as “monsters.” The academy described its new plans for a larger and more powerful oversight board and tighter restrictions on experiments that could lead to the production of such creatures. From the Telegraph:

Professor Thomas Baldwin, a member of the Academy of Medical Sciences working group that produced the report, said the possibility of humanised apes should be taken seriously.
He said: "The fear is that if you start putting very large numbers of human brain cells into the brains of primates suddenly you might transform the primate into something that has some of the capacities that we regard as distinctively human.. speech, or other ways of being able to manipulate or relate to us.
"These possibilities that are at the moment largely explored in fiction we need to start thinking about now."

No such experiments are currently known to have been taking place at that time… in the UK, anyway.
Now, a word about apes: It has been demonstrated that some species of apes are capable of learning basic American Sign Language (ASL). The most celebrated case is a chimpanzee named Washoe (1965-2007), who over the course of her life as a research subject learned and used well over two hundred signs and also provided controversial evidence that she possessed traits such as self-awareness and empathy.[18] (Evidence of such human traits among apes raised in ape nurseries tends to be controversial because of its implications and its origin: its implications question the ethics of subjecting apes to medical experimentation and the urbanization of their natural habitats; its origin is typically ape nurseries, which are often involved in campaigns against such things. Thus, those who advocate the use of apes in medical experiments, as well as those who intend to urbanize regions recognized as ape habitats, accuse those who provide such evidence as having fudged the evidence.)
Another relatively famous case is Koko, a gorilla born in 1971. According to BBC News, Koko, who has an I.Q. of at least 75, "uses a sign language of 1,000 gestures to communicate with humans and can understand 2,000 words of spoken English."[19]
A bonobo in Iowa named Kanzi is another nice example of the high intellectual capacity demonstrated by some apes. According to a 2006 article in the Smithsonian magazine by Paul Raffaele, he allegedly knows over three hundred illustrated symbols and three thousand spoken English words. He has also shown himself capable of building and lighting a campfire and then roasting marshmallows over it (this is a learned skill, of course).[20]
In 2010, research revealed that at least some chimpanzees can conceptualize volume[21], strengthening suspicions that, while not geniuses, apes are remarkably intelligent. The fear expressed by the Academy of Medical Sciences in 2011 was that the lack of restrictions on and responsible and sensible oversight of human-animal hybrid experimentation could soon lead to situations wherein the brain of an ape, apparently intelligent enough already to learn basic English and contemplate volume, would be augmented and enhanced by the insertion of human neurons.
Again, it was in the UK that those ethical concerns were being expressed. The world is a big place, with lots of scientists involved in hybridization research in a number of countries. How difficult would it be, I wonder, for just one team somewhere in the world to unofficially “neglect” to abort just one embryo? How difficult would it be, I wonder, for just one team to unofficially allow one such embryo into a consenting womb? Such a thing could never be acknowledged, of course...
If you tell a human not to do something, and also tell that human that it is possible to do that thing, the human will naturally feel inclined to do it – with drooling eagerness if the consequence is feeling like a god. Such is fallen human nature. Yes, it will inevitably happen. Somewhere, someone will inject human neurons into the brain of an ape fetus, or someone will fail to abort and will then implant a hybrid embryo. And, that someone will know demi-godhood. How few are those humans who have rejected recognition as gods! Indeed, such recognition has throughout history proven to be intoxicating... and never enough. Besides, if one is crafty enough to produce one hybrid, and if the experience is intoxicating, why stop at just one?

[1] Details of hybrid clone revealed, BBC News, June 18, 1999. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/371378.stm
- Human-pig embryo accusation provokes debate, Australian Broadcasting Network, October 9, 2000. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2000/10/09/196491.htm
[2] Fergus Walsh, “Plan to create human-cow embryos,” BBC News, November 6, 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/6121280.stm
[3] Creation of human-animal embryos sparks debate in Britain, CBC News, January 5, 2007. http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2007/01/05/chimeras.html
[4] Human-pig embryo accusation provokes debate, Australian Broadcasting Network, October 9, 2000. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2000/10/09/196491.htm
[5] Maryann Mott, “Animal-Human Hybrids Spark Controversy,” National Geographic News, January 25, 2005. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0125_050125_chimeras.html
[6] Rick Weiss, “Of Mice, Men and In-Between: Scientists Debate Blending Of Human, Animal Forms,” Washington Post, November 20, 2004. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A63731-2004Nov19.html
[7] Maryann Mott, “Animal-Human Hybrids Spark Controversy,” National Geographic News, January 25, 2005. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0125_050125_chimeras.html
[8] James Langton, “Scientists to make 'Stuart Little' mouse with the brain of a human,” Telegraph, March 6, 2005. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1485070/Scientists-to-make-Stuart-Little-mouse-with-the-brain-of-a-human.html
[9] Scientists create animals that are part-human: Stem cell experiments leading to genetic mixing of species, MSNBC, April 29, 2005. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7681252/ns/health-cloning_and_stem_cells
[10] Claudia Joseph, “Now Scientists Create a Sheep That's 15% Human,” Daily Mail, March 27, 2007. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-444436/Now-scientists-create-sheep-thats-15-human.html
[11] Jonathan Petre, “Chimera embryos have right to life, say bishops,” Telegraph, June 26, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1555639/Chimera-embryos-have-right-to-life-say-bishops.html
[12] Great Britain: Parliament: Joint Committee on the Human Tissue and Embryos (Draft) Bill, Evidence, vol. 2 of Human Tissue and Embryos (Draft) Bill (London: The Stationery Office, 2007), 294-97.
[13] Maggie Fox, “British Scientists Make Human-Cow Embryos,” Reuters, April 2, 2008. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2008/04/02/uk-cloning-cows-idUKN0242023320080402
[14] Clive Cookson, “Scientists Find Hybrid Embryos Easy to Make,” Financial Times, June 20, 2008. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96d72196-3e62-11dd-b16d-0000779fd2ac.html
[15] Clare Murphy, “Uncertain future for hybrid research,” BBC News, January 13, 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7826331.stm
[16] Daniel Martin and Simon Caldwell, “150 human animal hybrids grown in UK labs: Embryos have been produced secretively for the past three years,” Daily Mail, July 22, 2011. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2017818/Embryos-involving-genes-animals-mixed-humans-produced-secretively-past-years.html
[17] Nick Collins, “Ethical rules needed to curb 'Frankenstein-like experiments' on animals.” Telegraph, July 22, 2011. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8652093/Ethical-rules-needed-to-curb-Frankenstein-like-experiments-on-animals.html
[18] Nick Perry, “'Signing' Chimp Washoe Broke Language Barrier,” Seattle Times, November 1, 2007. http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2003986892_washoe01m.html (accessed October 3, 2012); Benedict Carey, “Washoe, a Chimp of Many Words, Dies at 42,” New York Times, November 1, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/science/01chimp.html?_r=1&ref=science&oref=slogin (accessed October 3, 2012).
[19] 'Talking' Gorilla Demands Dentist, BBC News, August 9, 2004. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3548246.stm (accessed October 3, 2012).
[20] Paul Raffaele, “Speaking Bonobo,” Smithsonian Magazine, November 2006, http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/10022981.html (accessed October 3, 2012); Laurentiu Garofeanu, “Amazing Photos of Kanzi the Bonobo Lighting a Fire and Cooking a Meal,” Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/8985122/Amazing-photos-of-Kanzi-the-bonobo-lighting-a-fire-and-cooking-a-meal.html (accessed October 3, 2012).
[21] Matt Walker, “Chimps Are Intelligent Enough to Appreciate a Full Pint,” BBC News, February 23, 2010. http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8528000/8528534.stm (accessed October 3, 2012).

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina, Populism Never Left You

At the turn of the 20th century, Argentina was one of the wealthiest nations in the world with the GDP PPP per capita comparable to Western Europe and the United States. Argentina’s high standards of living attracted massive flows of immigrants, and Buenos Aires culture and sophistication earned it the title the Paris of Latin America. However, since its early 20th century peak, Argentina’s economy has suffered a series of booms and busts due to its dependence upon the export of agricultural commodities. Since the rise of Juan Peron in the post-war period, these cycles have been exacerbated by populist economic policies. The IMF has been forced to bailout Argentina 21 times, and a detailed history of the ups and downs of Argentina’s economy would require far more space than I have here. Instead, I want to focus on Argentina’s most recent boom and bust cycle. I will discuss the populist policies of Cristina Fernandez, Mauricio Macri’s attempts to clean up the resulting mess, and the economic nightmare faced by the current government of Alberto Fernandez.
Cristina Fernandez Takes The Populist Road Cristina Fernandez assumed the presidency of Argentina in 2007, replacing her husband Nestor Kirchner, in a bid for the family to circumvent term limits. Although Nestor Kirchner had railed against the IMF and neoliberalism, and followed a heterodox economic policy, Cristina Fernandez’s 8 years in office marked an intensification of populism in Argentina. Between 2007 and 2015, welfare expenditures increased welfare payments 1.7 fold in real terms, and utility subsidies amounted to 5% of GDP. Cristina Fernandez inherited a modest budget surplus, but by the end of her presidency the budget deficit was 5% of GDP. Argentina under the Kirchners had taken a hostile stance towards international creditors, and so could on finance the budget deficit by printing money.
The inevitable consequence was high levels of inflation, with inflation reaching 25% by 2015. High inflation rates, combined with a fixed exchange rate led to a heavily overvalued currency putting Argentine manufacturers at a disadvantage. The government responded with a system of tariffs and subsidies to keep Argentine manufacturers afloat. The most absurd example of this is the heavy tariffs Argentina on electronics that made most consumer electronics prohibitively expensive. Some domestic manufacturing thrived, with Blackberry building a factory in Tierra del Fuego at the southern tip of South America. While there were some winners from this policy of populism, the costs were much higher than the benefits.
The government of Argentina was forced to take increasingly drastic steps to raise revenue. The government nationalized the oil industry, and the $30 billion pension industry. The government tried to keep people from knowing how dire the situation by publishing fake inflation statistics, using the courts to harass the opposition supporting media, and attempting to quash corruption investigations by the judiciary. Argentine growth was strong so long as soy and wheat prices were high, but agricultural commodity prices stagnated from 2012 onwards. The populist policies ceased to be sustainable under less favorable conditions, and Argentina saw per capita income increase from 2012 onwards. Ordinary Argentinians, angry with the state of their economy, chose to elect Mauricio Macri to power.
Mauricio Macri Fails to Get the Job Done Mauricio Macri, a moderate candidate who recognized how toxic the IMF was in Argentina, aimed to stabilize the economy of Argentina by first pursuing popular economic liberalization to build the political capital necessary for more painful reforms. Investors cheered symbolic steps such as the publishing of accurate inflation statistics. The government cut tariffs, liberalized capital controls, and cut export taxes. The liberalizing policies bore important fruit, including attracting $14 billion in FDI . Moreover, Macri’s crackdown on corruption resulted in dramatic reductions in the cost of building infrastructure. While some unpopular policies were pursued, including steep reductions to utility subsidies, the net result was the budget deficit steadily increased to 6.1% of GDP by 2017.
The Macri government’s ability to borrow from international capital markets made these large deficits manageable, as the government did not need to print money to keep the lights on. However, long term economic sustainability demanded Macri reduce this deficit and many investors were nervous about the worsening debt situation. One of the key promises Macri made an independent central bank, which tried to impose a strict inflation targeting to keep inflation under control. However Macri wanted greater macroeconomic flexibility, and tried to push the central bank to push for a higher inflation target, undermining the central banks independence. Global financial markets panicked at this misstep, and combined with rising US interest rates and a major drought, caused a sudden stop. Investors pulled massive amounts of money out of Argentina causing the exchange rate to collapse from 20 Argentine Pesos to the Dollar to 40 Pesos to the dollar with little warning.
Argentina found itself in a nightmarish political economy situation. If Mauricio Macri failed to raise taxes and cut spending, the currency would collapse and inflation soar because the budget deficit was too high. The government as a result was forced to implement austerity measures. However, these same measures were deeply unpopular, making it more likely left wing populists would come to power, causing financial markets to panic and sink the economy further. The IMF attempted to take an accommodating stance towards Argentina, offering Argentina a $57 billion bailout, the largest ever. However, the IMF’s bailout only postponed necessary reforms, associated Macri with the IMF which is hated by many Argentine voters, and failed to quell investor panic. Inflation soared to over 50% and per capita income fell by 5%. Unsurprisingly, in the 2019 general elections, Argentine voters turned against Macri and returned the populist left to power.
No Solutions to the Left Either In Argentina’s 2019 elections, Alberto Fernandez (no relation to Cristina Fernandez) narrowly won against Mauricio Macri. The Justicialist Party chose to have Alberto Fernandez lead the ticket, as he was a far less polarizing figure than Cristina Fernandez. However, Cristina Fernandez ran as his running mate and it has never been clear where real political authority lay. From the very beginning, Alberto Fernandez’s presidency was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Argentine government reacted with alacrity at the beginning of the pandemic, and Argentina was hit much less hard by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic than other countries. Moreover, the reprieve was only temporary and COVID-19 eventually hit Argentina with the same gale force it hit other parts of Latin America. More than 41,000 people have died so far, more deaths per capita than any country in Latin America other than Peru.
The lockdown measures and global economic crisis resulting from COVID-19 have proven to be immensely costly to Argentina’s struggling economy. The IMF is currently projecting Argentina’s economy to collapse by 12%. While global wheat and soy prices have grown through the current crisis, providing cushion to the Argentine economy, international capital markets have reacted to rising instability by pulling massive amounts of money out of risky emerging markets like Argentina. The government of Alberto Fernandez has had some success in renegotiating $65 billion of debt with private creditors. Moreover, the government hasp provided generous social security supports to help ordinary Argentinians get through the crisis. However, the result is a budget deficit soaring to 6% of GDP, that the government has been forced to finance by printing money. Monthly inflation rates are consistently over 3%.
The government has tried a variety of measures to contain the crisis. However, the capital control it has imposed have widely been circumvented. The government has moved to nationalize failing firms, only to be blocked by the courts. Argentina raised export taxes to close the deficit, but cut them after exporters reduced grain deliveries. The government has imposed a 3.5% wealth tax, yet wealthy Argentinians are increasingly choosing to depart the country altogether, with countries such as Uruguay offering Argentines incentives for leaving. Entire industries are choosing to depart from Argentina, with companies ranging from software companies to car manufacturers choosing to uproot their businesses entirely.
Argentina’s current woes are part of a broader pattern of boom and even deeper bust. Argentina finds itself locked into persistent cycles of large government deficits, currency crises and populist government. The current presidency of Alberto Ferndandez is increasingly unpopular, with the current administration’s approval rating falling to 35%. It’s likely the next government will inherit the same set of dynamics, and given this next government will have the same set of tools and incentives it is difficult to see how it will perform better. Nevertheless, Argentina will need to find a way to break out of this cycle if it wants to leave economic stagnation behind and see sustained development.
Selected Sources: The Integration of Italian Immigrants into the United States and Argentina: A Comparative Analysis, Herbert Klein Populist Leaders and the Economy, Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, Christoph Trebesch
The political left, the export boom, and the populist temptation, Robert Kaufman Macroeconomic Policy in Argentina During 2002–2013 , Mario Damill , Roberto Frenkel, Martin Rapeti When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, Guillermo Calvo Macri’s Macro: The Meandering Road to Stability and Growth, Federico Sturzenegger The Growth of Debt and the Debt of Growth: Lessons from the Case of Argentina, Pablo Lopez, Cecilia Nahon Default Positions: What Shapes Public Attitudes about International Debt Disputes? Stephen Nelson, David Steinberg
www.wealthofnationspodcast.com https://media.blubrry.com/wealthofnationspodcast/s/content.blubrry.com/wealthofnationspodcast/Argentina-Economic_Populism.mp3

Ignorance of Agriculture will ultimately contribute to collapse. (debate prep)

My apologies, this is a long post, TL;DR is at the end
Disclaimer: I am not a scientist. This is a later draft which I have shortened and to an extent, dumbed down to be understood by a wider audience, motivated by my comment on the debate thread. The statements included have been researched thoroughly and there are links to data on which I provide my own analysis (some links are generic wiki pages but I cannot seem to link 30 odd years of learned experience and university level material very easily). My writing is based from over 15 years of working in the UK agricultural sector with time also spent working in New Zealand. I have also studied Geography, Geology and Biology at college, Agriculture + Land Management at foundation degree level and hold a degree in Architecture – I very much welcome discussion over the topics raised and for comments to provide alternative viewpoints, conclusions and sources but I do not wish for people to just tell me that ‘you’re wrong’. What this post describes, personally causes much concern that I feel others should learn to understand before forming their own opinion - UK agriculture is often unfairly judged through ignorance and misinformation. It is focused around a UK/Europe perspective and history but I’m sure there is evidence to suggest similar trends globally.
When trying to predict a future, it is wise to analyse the past and in this instance, to know an origin story, that of Society.
From a geological point of view, the beginning of human society happened yesterday, roughly 10,000 years ago. It is important to use this time scale because this is of a similar scale that we assess previous climate changes and extinction events. Appropriately, it is of a time scale that The Long Now project views humanity if we are to survive the next 10,000 years as a species.
Society arose from the fields and herds of our invention, Agriculture. Settling as communities and tribes to plant seed and tend to domesticated animals slowly created a surplus of food. This crucially meant, for example, out of a group of 50 adults, only 40 would need to farm, leaving the remaining 10 to learn, innovate, rule, and relax – the notion of Progress. For millennia this trend continued as agricultural processes benefited from the new ideas and tools that the non-farmers provided. Right through to the medieval and renaissance periods, a vast majority of the population worked in the food supply system; not all were farmers but butchers and bakers, blacksmiths, and cart manufacturers etc. Society was still focused around the growing seasons and it is no coincidence that northern hemisphere religions practice Lent around early spring, the time when food stocks from the previous years harvest were running low. It was a method of control to discourage selfish behavior and instead share remaining food stocks proportionately within a community. Farming methods at this time were relatively sustainable and ‘eco-friendly’, using organically grown crops and animals that formed part of a natural Carbon cycle and Nitrogen cycle.
This concept soon changed, firstly with the age of discovery but more importantly, with the following Industrial Revolution. This was an acceleration of the same process as before; food surplus became so great that many more people were free to innovate, invent and discover – creating a positive feedback loop. The issue was however that this explosion of Progress was directly a result of fossil fuels. First coal and coke which perfected methods of steel production before being used as a source of power to transport goods, power factories and machinery, thus enabling great increases in Efficiency. Later, oil became more important to further increase power efficiencies but also to produce vast quantities of synthetic fertilizer and chemical pesticides.
Our modern day society is built on the efficiencies and the stored energy that fossil fuels provided. The apple air pods, the tiktok, the football stadiums and the long-haul flights are all possible because of the exploits of oil to provide enough surplus food. Only a tiny fraction of our society now produce the food that the rest of us consume. In particularly the work of Fritz Haber and his work of creating a synthetic fertiliser in 1918 as clearly shown in this graph – UK yields of arable crops from 1200 to modern day. (measured by tonne/hectare – how much stuff is harvested over about 1.5 soccer pitches)
This causes me concern for three reasons:
1) Look at the graph again and zoom in to the past 20 years. Yields have become stagnant, growth has ceased. I have witnessed this firsthand. We have reached a ceiling of productivity we can no longer push any higher much like assuming a 100m Olympic sprinter will one day set a record of under 4 seconds, it is just not physically possible. There is not going to be any more increase in food surplus to take advantage of under the current system of extracting fossil fuels.
2) The increase in yield has been directly provided by the very thing which causes us environmental harm – oil. If we are to give up fossil fuels, then we must accept a huge drop in agricultural output. My estimation is not to a scale before the industrial revolution as we have since learnt more about drainage, crop rotation and breeding for instance but I would comfortably assume average yields could halve within a generation if we were to give up ‘oil’.
3) The graph shows an average yield – meaning some areas may still be increasing production but areas that were breaking records are now falling, thus bringing the average down. I explain this by many farms reaching an efficiency limit through financial constraints in a capitalist market and land usage but more importantly, climate change is already altering our agriculture through floods, droughts, pests, and diseases. Stuff that our ancestors would worship a god to try and prevent. 2012 was a bad harvest I remember, 2019 was also too wet that crops didn’t get sown in time for 2020.
I believe this trend is important for the average person to grasp. Our society has been so far removed from food production that most people are ignorant of its power.
Agriculture is THE bottom rung of societies ladder, it is our foundation stone and if it were to fail or indeed just wobble, we all fall.
This group shares many posts about political and civil unrest that would spark a collapse and although it has done in the past such as the fall of Rome, this is equivalent to a tree losing its top branches which cause damage as they fall. The tree still stands, and like the Dark Ages of Europe, time allows it to regrow and flourish. To use the same analogy, Agriculture is the trunk of the tree and climate is the ground in which it stands; if these are significantly destroyed or damaged then the entire tree falls and there is no regrowth because it is dead. The next 10,000 years look bleak if we fail to transition away from fossil fuel exploitation over the next century.
TD;DR the very thing that society is supported by, agriculture, is currently balancing on a tightrope and there is a hurricane forecast to hit real soon.

The State of the Sub: 23 January 2021

EDIT TO ADD: Mr. Tierney will be joining us for an AMA on this coming Tuesday and 1pm Eastern/10am Pacific. Let’s roll out the welcome mat and bring your best questions.

So.
That happened.
That, of course, being the entirety of 2020. So: onward.
Since the last State of the Sub address in June, we have gained 30,000 subscribers, and one-third of those in the last month alone. This can largely be credited to the premier of the much-anticipated series 9, but also to the show’s growing popularity across the globe. As of this writing, the entire run of Letterkenny can be streamed on Crave in Canada, Hulu in the U.S., and SBS in Australia, and we hope to see more outlets in the future.
As the fandom has grown, this sub has seen remarkable engagement, especially given the long hiatus between series with very little information. Reaching out to the producers has opened a line of communication, and the minute I learn anything, you’ll hear about it.
I find this kind of data fascinating, so here are some stats for nerds:
https://subredditstats.com/letterkenny

AMAs

One of the more ambitious projects we pulled off in 2020 was a series of great AMAs.
We kicked off PandyTime with an AMA featuring hockey’s most bodacious babes, Jess Salgueiro and Kelly McCormack, also known as Mary Anne and Betty Anne! They shared their upcoming projects with us and some great behind the scenes nonsense with the cast of Letterkenny. My favourite answer was this one:
He looks really goofy, especially on the ice. But Jared is such an absurdly kind lovely prince of a human, that it's so surprising when he plays a righteous dick so convincingly. When he was chirping us from the ice, at one point he said he had a hard time looking at us and saying that shit cause he felt so bad. THAT is how good a person he is. He can't help himself. To that end - JARED KEESO 2020.
Alas, #HotHickSummer2020 was not to be.
Our next AMA brought the wonderful Dylan Playfair to us, who gamely answered some classic Reddit AMA questions and even though he was asked a baker’s dozen times what his favourite Shoresy Chirps was, he was just as enthusiastic about every answer. The best was this one:
I am the hockey player dialogue. Yes, the entire crew now speaks hockey fluently and Jareds even funnier than you imagine. Take your minds eye image of how funny he is, now double it. not look at that double and double THAT.... fuck eh?
I see what you did there, teasing s9 jokes, cute hoor.
u/evanjstern’s birthday is 13 October… but he had plans that night, so he came over to hang out with us the day before! He stayed for quite a while, answered lots of questions, and gave me a fucking heart attack:
Well I can tell you there are over 37x the amount of people in this sub than the town he grew up in. And he’s extremely taken aback (in the sweetest way) by the support for the show. He may even lurk here from time to time... who knows. The guy just doesn’t love attention. Figures.
After that, I really leant in and had 8 beer.
Our final AMA of the year was with Evan’s skid-in-arms, Connor the Vape Lord Skid, u/PatrickMcNeil. Patrick has his own comedic endeavours in addition to Letterkenny, and recently entered a short film to the Sault Ste. Marie Film Festival:
Oh yeah! I got a sketch called "The Lawn Brothers" into the first annual 'Sault Film Fest' in Sault Ste Marie! You can check out the youtube version here! First fest as a director!! The Lawn Brothers

Housekeeping

Smaller items: we have a Music tab at the top of the sub, for all your What song…? questions. We have also expanded our post flair list, so please check that carefully for goodies.
Our Discord server has grown as well. We’ve added some channels and picked up a new podcast! I would like to introduce The Produce Stand Podcast. Now, I know what you’re thinking: there’s lots of Letterkenny podcasts out there, but this one is actually by Canadians. Please direct all praise and blame to u/PFTW13. Our OG podcast How Are Ya Now? has already released their first episode for series 9, so if you haven’t already given it a listen, well, what’re ya waiting for? Pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er.

Keeping the Sub a Safe Space for Fans

On a more serious note, this year has thrown us all some serious curveballs. One of the things that has kept me sane is modding this sub. Even when it’s not the most pleasant task, it’s still something I care about, and it’s given me a sense of community. I hope that you guys feel like this is your community, too. Letterkenny is an inclusive show, and I want this to be likewise an inclusive sub. Except the degens. Yous can stay at the end of the laneway. Please, if you guys see someone being a degen, speak up. Report. Block them. ModMail is a good way to bring things to our attention. Send us links. Help us keep Letterkenny a nice neighbourhood.

Milestone: 200,000 Subscribers!

To celebrate our milestone of 200,000 subscribers, I have been working with the Producers of Letterkenny to organise a couple of special treats for us. I am very pleased to announce that we have merch to give away, and an AMA with Jacob Tierney! We’re still working out some details like timing, but it’s coming soon!
The giveaway details will be included in a separate post, so please keep your eyes peeled for that. For now, that’s all. Thanks for being part of this community and supporting the show.
Talk to ya.

Advice needed. Found a offer for a custom PC, but I'm not sure if it's better to build one on my own.

[Review] Louis Vuitton Pochette Metis Monogram from TS Aaron Orange Couch Factory

My first review. Please be gentle! I'm not the best when it comes to QC but I tried hard with this one! I would love to know if there's anything that I missed or you have picked up from the photos.
Disclosure - Aaron provides 10% off the purchase price of your item (s) if you tell him you found him on Repladies.
Seller’s name: TS Aaron
Seller contact: WeChat lzq675166001lxy
Price: 1290cny plus 10% off; I paid 1160cny for the bag
Payment method: Transferwise
Price of shipping: 230cny EMS (I asked for no box)
Order timeline:
Please note that I actually spent weeks researching this bag prior to purchase.
2/1- Enquired about the pochette Metis, Aaron provided quotes from God Factory and Orange Couch.
Factory photos sent on the same day. I asked for extra photos of the stamping and they were sent through within 30mins. After examining the photos in depth I agreed on the purchase. Aaron send through his Transferwise payment details.
3/1- I paid 3 minutes past midnight (ahh good old insomnia) and provided Aaron with my postage details. PSP sent through late that afternoon
4/1- I asked for extra photos of the glazing. They were sent through on the same day. I provided my OK.
5/1- tracking provided
15/1- arrived!!!!!!! Bag and dust bag

Photos

[My photos] http://imgur.com/a/rSP3ZDn Base of bag http://imgur.com/mtvC9Nb
[PSP] http://imgur.com/a/fr25bWp
[Factory pictures] http://imgur.com/a/z9updxK
[Authentic] https://au.louisvuitton.com/eng-au/products/pochette-metis-monogram-nvprod1770372v

Quality - 9.25/10

The stitching looks perfect, one tiny loose thread near the D ring (-0.25) There are 3 double stitches on one side of the vachetta, but not on the other as it is not visible unless I pull it out, not deducting points for this as I haven't seen auth it on the authentic bag to verify if it's a quality or an accuracy matter. 4 X double stitching on the side tabs, I havent seen auth for reference so unsure if this is accurate.
The canvas feels really good. However, I have never held a real LV bag in my life! Just from reading reviews it seems that the cheaper reps have a harder or rubber-like canvas. This canvas is quite soft with tactile grains
(-0.25) the canvas does look slightly drier than the auth that I have seen online. It shines but it does not possess the same shine as the auth
Hardware looks good, gold and shiny, doesn't look too yellow (if it does in the photos, it's probably due to the lighting). Vachetta is soft and smooth, looked like the right colour when it arrived. I've been leaving it out in the living room to kick off the patina process. Glazing quite neat, however I will deduct (-0.25) for faint glazing going slightly over the edges. It's not noticeable unless you examine it closely.
The inside of the bag is quite stiff, but I read that it's the same with auth.
The zipper is amazing, I was able to open it with one hand, it zips like butter. I was shocked cos this zipper is better than some of my auth bags.

Accuracy - 8.75/10

The alignment looks fine to me, as well as the stamping. I have seen many reviews indicating the vachetta tab is higher on orange couch pochette metis bags, hence covering the dot of the flower. The tab is not covering the dot on my bag, the tab sits just below the dot. I am very pleased with this!
Glazing is deep browny red, close to the authentic. However it's not as thick as the auth. It's thicker in a few areas but looking a little thin on the vachetta so… (-0.25) for inconsistent glazing.
The hardware looks correct to me. Some reps have thinner D rings on the side of the bag, the D ring on this bag is thick.
PL serial code matches up with the made in Italy tag inside the bag.
(-0.25) Stamping of Louis Vuitton on the vachetta handle seems correct, however, appears deeper than auth
(-0.25) stamping of the flowers on the back of the bag, above the zipper looks higher than auth.
(-0.25) as the middle accordion section is more rounded than square when compared to auth.
(-0.25) for the canvas looking warmer than a brown green hue.
5 hole strap and amazing glazing on the straps!!!! I couldn't find any issues on the strap or hardware. I didnt compare the stamping on the strap. But there are 27 flowers.
Bag measurements 24cm or 25cm if I include the side tabs (depth) x 18cm height or 19cm if I include the vachetta top handle (height) x 9cm or 7cm if I tighten the accordion…(depth)
Auth measurements 25cm X 19cm X 7cm on LV's website. I'm not sure how it's measured on LV's website so I'm not deducting any points for measurements. It seems pretty spot on.

Satisfaction - 10/10

I LOVE THIS BAG, so much that I was willing to spend time to write a review. I look at it and admire it everyday lol.
This is hands down the best rep bag I have purchased from a TS. My husband asked if this can be worn as a man bag cos he likes it too.
I was tossing up between OC and GF, I'm glad I got OC as it is significantly cheaper and I'm not too fussed about the inaccuracies. The front tab was the major concern for me, I am over the moon that it's not covering the flower.

Seller Communication and Service - 10/10

I have purchased from Aaron on multiple occasions, this is my third order. I have never had any issues. I have always been pleased with Aaron's prompt response and service. Doesn't matter which day of the week I message him, I often get an answer and photos on the same day or within a couple of hours. Aaron always tells me when something is of medium or high quality, which factory is better for certain bags and if there is a defect on sale items. I also find his shipping charges to be more reasonable.

A comprehensive case for Medicare for All.

The US Healthcare System is a Joke
According to OECD data, the US spends more per capita on healthcare than other developed nations.
68,000 people die every year because we don't have Medicare for All33019-3/fulltext).
The US has spent more on healthcare than other developed nations, and that gap has widened over time.
US healthcare system is ranked 29th in the world by The Lancet30994-2/fulltext)
US healthcare system is ranked 37th in the world by the World Health Organization
Based on US healthcare expenditure, the US underperforms on the Healthcare Access and Quality Metric, which estimates preventable mortality rates30994-2/fulltext)
42.4% of US cancer patients lose their entire life savings in just two years30509-6/fulltext).
1/3 of GoFundMe’s are for medical problems.
Health insurance companies lack the numbers to adequately negotiate healthcare costs
Benefits of Medicare for All
Eliminates premiums, copayments, deductibles, and surprise healthcare bills
Healthcare is free at the point of service.
No doctor will be out of network.
Coverage for: dental, hearing, vision, in-patient and out-patient services, mental health and substance abuse treatment, reproductive and maternity care, prescription drugs, and more.
Will save 68,000 lives annually33019-3/fulltext)
Medicare for All Would SAVE the American People Money
A meta-analysis found that 91% of peer-reviewed journals say that Medicare for All would save money in the short-term and the long-term.
A UMass Amherst study found, “over the decade 2017 – 2026, the cumulative savings through operating under Medicare for All would be $5.1 trillion”
A Yale University study33019-3/fulltext) published in the Lancet found, “Taking into account both the costs of coverage expansion and the savings that would be achieved through the Medicare for All Act, we calculate that a single-payer, universal health-care system is likely to lead to a 13% savings in national health-care expenditure, equivalent to more than US$450 billion annually (based on the value of the US$ in 2017)… we estimate that ensuring health-care access for all Americans would save more than 68 000 lives and 1.73 million life-years every year compared with the status quo”
Medicare for All would reduce healthcare costs for a variety of reasons: A system that covers all 330 million Americans has massive collective bargaining power, people will no longer have to pay money to the price-gouging for-profit middlemen that are the insurance companies, administrative costs would be reduced, and we would be able to invest in preventative care (which saves money in the long run).
The Public Option is an Awful Idea
Private insurance companies would try to ensure that as many people with pre-existing conditions go on the government plan as possible while simultaneously keeping people without pre-existing conditions on their private plans. This means the public system would be overburdened since there aren't enough healthy people paying into it. The overburdened system would have a host of problems and it would then be used by the right as an argument against single-payer. They'd say things like, "What? You want single-payer? The opt-in government system we have right now is already a disaster, and you want to expand it to cover everyone?"
The fact that we have protections for people with pre-existing conditions will not prevent this from happening. Insurance companies would use all the legal means available to ensure that as many sick people go on the government plan as possible. And this is not just speculation on my part, we have real-world examples of this occurring when you compare Medicare and Medicare Advantage. Here’s an article that discusses this in-depth. From the article:

decades of experience with Medicare Advantage offer lessons about that program and how private insurers capture profits for themselves and push losses onto their public rival—strategies that allow them to win the competition while driving up everyone’s costs
Obstructing expensive care. Plans try to attract profitable, low-needs enrollees by assuring convenient and affordable access to routine care for minor problems. Simultaneously, they erect barriers to expensive services that threaten profits—for example, prior authorization requirements, high co-payments, narrow networks, and drug formulary restrictions that penalize the unprofitably ill. While the fully public Medicare program contracts with any willing provider, many private insurers exclude (for example) cystic fibrosis specialists, and few Medicare Advantage plans cover care at cancer centers like Memorial Sloan Kettering.
In sum, a public option insurer that, like traditional Medicare, doesn’t try to dodge unprofitable enrollees would be saddled with more than its share of sick, expensive patients and would become a de facto high-cost, high-risk pool.”

Even the CBO has pointed out that a public option would tend to cover people who are less healthy than the people on private plans:

The public plan would also tend to cover people who were, on average, less healthy—and therefore more costly—than the average enrollee in a private plan.

Common Anti-Medicare for All Talking Points Debunked

“Medicare for All bans private insurance!”

Medicare for All does not ban private insurance. It bans duplicative coverage for the purpose of cost control and to avoid an unjust two-tier system. However, you can still get supplemental private insurance for things that are not covered by Medicare for All (which most people probably wouldn't need).

"Medicare for all limits people's freedom of choice since they cannot purchase insurance that covers procedures covered by the government."

Medicare for All expands freedom of choice because people will no longer have to worry about whether a doctor they need to see is out of network. Having the freedom to choose which doctor you want is better than having the freedom to choose which health insurance company will rip you off.

"A public option is better because it gives people the freedom to choose whether or not they want to be on the government plan."

It's extremely strange that someone would make this kind of argument in the context of healthcare. Almost no one would ever apply this kind of logic to other basic goods. For example, you wouldn't say that we should have a public option for fire department services, where you can either opt into paying for public fire protection, or you can choose between purchasing different private fire protection plans (that all offer varying levels of fire protection).

“Medicare for All will lead to longer wait times and rationing!”

In a private healthcare system, if you can't pay for the treatment, you don't get it. Your wait time is infinite. Thus, every country rations healthcare, even countries with private healthcare systems. The difference is that in a private healthcare system, care is rationed based on the size of your wallet, rather than need. If you're concerned with the fact that care is rationed, the solution to this problem is to enact policies that would increase the number of doctors. The number of doctors we have is bottlenecked by three factors: The number of medical school slots there are, the number of available residency positions, and the number of physicians we allow to immigrate to the US. We should implement policies to create more medical schools, increase the number of residency positions, and allow more doctors to immigrate to the US to reduce wait times.
In a 2016 survey, only Canada and Sweden (2 of 10) had worse wait times than the United States.
Transitioning from a single-payer system to a multi-payer system actually increased wait times in Australia.

"Medicare for All will make your taxes go up!"

This is a lie by omission. It is true that your taxes will go up. However, all the empirical research cited above shows that Medicare for All would save the American people money. Even though your taxes will go up, you will net save money since you won't need private insurance.

"Medicare for All is a government takeover of healthcare!"

Medicare for All is not a government takeover of healthcare; it's a government takeover of health insurance. All Medicare for All does is change the mechanism by which healthcare expenses are paid for. It doesn't make it so that every institution that delivers healthcare is a public institution.

"You only have negative rights. You don't have positive rights. Healthcare can't be a human right because if you make a right out of someone else's services, then you have to resort to slavery. If someone has a right to healthcare, that means healthcare professionals have a moral and legal obligation to treat you."

As best articulated by Dr. Ben Burgis, "I think there are positive rights like a right to healthcare. A right to healthcare does not mean a right to have any particular person deliver that healthcare. What it does mean is a right to have the tab picked up by the state via progressive taxation. That's what people who believe in a right to healthcare actually mean by it."
See 26:42 of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4O0WvGSZN0
Moreover, if you don't have positive rights, then we should eliminate the right to an attorney.

"Healthcare is not free if your neighbor is paying for it!"

Well if I get sick, my neighbor’s going to pay for it one way or another. Whether that’s because of the lost economic productivity that occurs when people are sick and unable to work because they can’t get the treatment they need, or because we live in a society that treats healthcare as a human right. I don’t know about you, but I’d prefer the latter option since it’s in my self-interest to live in a country where people are as happy and healthy as possible so they can create, innovate, and contribute so we’re all better off. But hey, that’s just me.

Feel free to let me know if there are any sources or arguments I should add to this post.

Winter 2021 Painting Contest - Sponsored by Epic Encounters!

The Winter 2021 painting contest has now begun, and you will have until March 13th to paint your minis! I am also pleased to announce our sponsor for this contest: Epic Encounters! Along with the usual bragging rights, the first place winners of each of the three categories will receive the Epic Encounters Kobolds & Dragon sets (see prizes section below).

There are three categories that you can enter:
Beginner entry thread

You are just starting the hobby. Maybe you’ve painted a handful of minis already, but you haven’t ventured very far from a “Get Started” painting kit just yet. You’ve just learned you need to thin your paint and things like “washes” and “dry brushing” are about as advanced as you normally go.

Intermediate entry thread

You’ve been painting for a while. Maybe you’ve painted a whole army, or you have a shelf full of minis or busts you’ve painted for fun or your RPGs of choice. Either way you are starting to consider investing in more shelves. Good chance you have a preferred paint brand.

Advanced entry thread

Not only have you been painting for a while, but you are actively improving your skills to master minipainting as a craft and you want to push your skills. All that being said, don't think that you need to be a Crystal Brush contender to enter this category. We have some truly talented painters in this community, and I'm sure you're one of them!

Categories are based on general skill level: no techniques are restricted to a specific category. Beginner and Intermediate entries are welcome to try advanced techniques if they’d like such as non-metallic metal (NMM), object sourced lighting (OSL), or others, but are not required at any level to qualify. This contest is an opportunity to push your skills and have fun!
If you are unsure what category you should enter, feel free to PM me a picture of your most recent/best painted mini and tell me how long/much you've painted and I'll do my best to help you figure it out!

HOW TO ENTER
Starting today, January 12th, until the end of February 28th, post one image of your unpainted mini in the entry thread for your chosen category with the following details visible in the image:

The word “epic”
Your username
The date
Your chosen, unpainted mini

Like in this example. Don’t forget the secret word: epic!

Prizes:
First place in each category will be sent one of each box from the Epic Encounters Kobolds & Dragon set: Shrine of the Kobold Queen and Lair of the Red Dragon (MSRP $100 USD)
First place winners of each category will have their winning minis shown off in our sidebar
The top 3 of each category will be immortalized in our ~Hall of Fame~
Bragging rights!

The dates:
January 12: Contest starts
February 28: Last day to enter your unpainted mini
March 1: Final submissions start
March 13: Last day for final submissions
March 14-20: Community vote for top 5 finalists in each category
March 21-25: Judges vote on community selected finalists and select winners
March 26: Winners announced!
(All dates end at 11:59 pm/23:59 Pacific Time)

Finished submissions details:
Finished submissions will be accepted from March 1st until March 13th at 11:59 pm/23:59 Pacific Time. Finished entries must be submitted as an imgur gallery including at least two images of the mini (front and back), but more images are welcome. When we begin accepting finished submissions a new stickied announcement thread will be made along with submission threads for each category.

After the contest ends, we will have a general discussion thread where you can talk about your experience, ask for critique on your final entry, and suggest ideas for future contests!
Please see the top pinned comment for some extra details and questions!
If you have any questions, feel free to ask them here! Please keep the entry threads free of discussion.

"It's Okay to Cry" by SOPHIE is now #2 on the US Spotify Viral Chart !

1/12/2021 In the last 24 hours there have been 2,665 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Maryland. There has now been a total of 312,351 confirmed cases.

SUMMARY (1/12/2021)
YESTERDAY'S VACCINE DEPLOYMENT STATUS IN MARYLAND

Metric	24 Hour Total	Total to Date	Percent
First Dose	12,623	152,129	2.52%
Second Dose	2,989	9,655	0.16%
Doses Administered	15,612	161,784	59.46%
Doses Delivered	---	272,100	---

First and Second Dose Percent is the percent of the state that has received that dose. Doses Administered Percent is the percent of Doses Received that have been administered as either a first or second dose.
YESTERDAY'S TESTING STATISTICS IN MARYLAND

Metric	24 HR Total	Prev 7 Day Avg	Today vs 7 Day Avg
Number of Tests	31,330	45,625	-31.3%
Number of Positive Tests	3,498	3,794	-7.8%
Percent Positive Tests	11.17%	8.56%	+30.4%
Percent Positive Less Retests	22.53%	21.98%	+2.5%

State Reported 7-day Rolling Positive Testing Percent: 9%
Testing metrics are distinct from case metrics as an individual may be tested multiple times.
Percent Positive Less Retests is calculated as New Confirmed Cases / (New Confirmed Cases + Number of persons tested negative).
SUMMARY STATISTICS IN MARYLAND

Metric	24 HR Total	Prev 7 Day Avg	Today vs 7 Day Avg	Total to Date
Number of confirmed cases	2,665	3,126	-14.8%	312,351
Number of confirmed deaths	67	39	+73.7%	6,196
Number of probable deaths	-1	1	-275.0%	171
Number of persons tested negative	9,164	11,415	-19.7%	2,658,742
Ever hospitalized	129	195	-33.8%	28,860
Released from isolation	3	7	-56.3%	9,434
Total testing volume	31,330	45,633	-31.3%	6,220,019

CURRENT HOSPITALIZATION USAGE

Metric	Total	24 HR Delta	Prev 7 Day Avg Delta	Delta vs 7 Day Avg
Currently hospitalized	1,952	+12	+27	-55.6%
Acute care	1,496	+3	+23	-86.9%
Intensive care	456	+9	+4	+117.2%

The Currently hospitalized metric appears to be the sum of the Acute care and Intensive care metrics.
Cases and Deaths Data Breakdown

NH = Non-Hispanic

CASES BY COUNTY

County	Total Cases	Change	Cases/100,000 (7 Day Avg)	Confirmed Deaths	Change	Probable Deaths	Change
Allegany	5,785	14	43.4 (↓)	163	1	0	0
Anne Arundel	28,416	214	67.7 (↑)	390	2	14	0
Baltimore City	34,443	43	42.2 (↓)	728	3	21	0
Baltimore County	42,505	198	42.0 (↑)	984	12	31	0
Calvert	2,783	32	55.3 (↑)	46	0	1	0
Caroline	1,556	14	57.4 (↓)	12	1	0	0
Carroll	6,015	62	40.2 (↓)	173	0	5	0
Cecil	4,125	25	37.3 (↓)	81	1	2	0
Charles	6,818	47	39.5 (↑)	131	1	1	0
Dorchester	1,645	18	79.5 (↑)	24	0	0	0
Frederick	13,501	564	65.1 (↑)	204	3	8	0
Garrett	1,634	11	49.3 (↑)	54	0	1	0
Harford	9,739	57	37.9 (↑)	177	2	4	0
Howard	12,863	129	51.1 (↑)	182	1	6	0
Kent	877	7	54.7 (↓)	29	1	2	0
Montgomery	52,015	488	48.7 (↑)	1,146	6	43	0
Prince George's	60,505	482	57.2 (↑)	1,120	5	27	0
Queen Anne's	2,014	8	64.9 (↓)	29	1	1	0
Somerset	2,022	49	68.1 (↑)	23	1	0	0
St. Mary's	3,818	28	42.3 (↑)	94	2	0	0
Talbot	1,420	19	58.1 (↑)	11	0	0	0
Washington	9,852	84	81.3 (↓)	173	2	3	0
Wicomico	5,386	53	60.1 (↑)	94	0	0	0
Worcester	2,614	19	71.9 (↑)	58	2	1	0
Data not available	0	0	0.0 (→)	70	20	0	-1

CASES BY AGE & GENDER:

Demographic	Total Cases	Change	Confirmed Deaths	Change	Probable Deaths	Change
0-9	14,577	150	1	0	0	0
10-19	28,862	300	5	0	1	0
20-29	57,488	454	29	0	1	0
30-39	54,600	477	65	2	6	-1
40-49	48,133	390	181	1	4	0
50-59	47,011	432	482	3	22	0
60-69	31,507	266	969	13	17	0
70-79	18,014	135	1,573	15	31	0
80+	12,159	61	2,889	33	89	0
Data not available	0	0	2	0	0	0
Female	163,801	1,294	2,983	34	83	0
Male	148,550	1,371	3,213	33	88	-1
Sex Unknown	0	0	0	0	0	0

CASES BY RACE:

Race	Total Cases	Change	Confirmed Deaths	Change	Probable Deaths	Change
African-American (NH)	88,814	633	2,235	11	61	0
White (NH)	104,415	1,020	3,018	33	89	0
Hispanic	52,461	385	596	1	14	0
Asian (NH)	6,644	73	205	1	7	0
Other (NH)	14,584	168	62	0	0	0
Data not available	45,433	386	80	21	0	-1

MAP (1/12/2021)
MAP OF 7 DAY AVERAGE OF NEW CASES PER 100,000 :
MAP 7 DAY AVERAGE OF NEW CASES PER 100,000 (1/12/2021)

ZipCode Data can be found by switching the tabs under the map on the state website.

TOTAL MD CASES:
TOTAL MD CASES (1/12/2021)
CURRENT MD HOSP. & TOTAL DEATHS:
CURRENT MD HOSP. & TOTAL DEATHS (1/12/2021)
BOT COMMANDS :

Case count by jurisdictional area Direct Message request form. Add the jurisdiction (i.e. county name) to the message body.
School case count by jurisdictional area Direct Message request form. Add the jurisdiction (i.e. county name) to the message body.
This bot provides a limited subset of commands. Documentation is available here.

PREVIOUS THREADS:

SOURCE(S):

OBTAINING DATASETS:

Maryland State ArcGIS datasets may be browsed and downloaded by visiting https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/datasets/.
The Maryland State Testing Positivity dataset may be downloaded by visiting https://state-of-maryland.github.io/TestingGraph/DailyTestingData.csv.

I am a bot. I was created to reproduce the useful daily reports from u/Bautch.
Image uploads are hosted on Imgur and will expire if not viewed within the last six months.

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The Most Expensive Submarines in History Might be Built by Australia: Procurement issues in the Royal Australian Navy.