I've taught college-level investments classes, and I think a lot of you people would benefit from some of what we talk about in there.
It's important for you to understand what exactly risk is, in the finance sense. Watch this video and think about how you would react in this scenario. The expected value (average value of all possible outcomes) of the case is $500,000.50. I have a feeling that if you sold that case on the market you'd find a market price below that; the difference between the expected value and the market price (assuming a fully liquid market) is the risk premium
A central concept of finance and investments is this: the more risk you take, the more return you get. The safest thing you can do is convert your holdings to cash and stick it in your wallet, but you would get zero return (and lose purchasing power due to inflation over time). Technically, sticking money in a savings account is riskier, though interest rates on savings deposits is essentially zero these days and deposit insurance removes most of that risk. Any market play that gets you massive returns is putting a bunch of capital at risk (think about that WSB guy who put $700,000 into GME options; imagine what happens to the guy if the price doesn’t move). The reason the most common investment advice is to fire everything into low-cost index funds is because it’s low risk and low cost (active management of mutual funds rarely justifies the extra cost, but that’s a different discussion entirely). If you’re undertaking extra risk, you theoretically should be getting extra return to justify that risk. Think about a lottery ticket. If the jackpot is high enough, the expected value (the averaged return you get from all possible outcomes) of a lottery ticket is higher than the price you pay for it. However, given the limited set of outcomes that a lottery ticket gives you and the likelihood of the worst case scenario (you lose your entire investment), the risk is too high for most people to seriously invest in (and if you do “seriously” invest in the Powerball, you’re probably not having a good time).
Another important consideration is liquidity. If you're selling a Stradivarius violin, you're going to have to spend a lot of time searching for a buyer who will pay full price OR you’ll have to sell it for less than it’s worth. In the market, this tends to be reflected in the bid/ask spread. We like to think about the market as a monolith, but in reality it’s just an aggregation of all the investors out there. That means liquidity isn’t a problem when it comes to most stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ (eg. At the time of this writing the bid/ask spread on AAPL was $.01 for a price of $136.79), but when you head to OTC territory you might start seeing bid/ask spreads that can be up to 10% of the price for some of those real “no man’s land” stocks. That means that the price you pay (the ask price) and the price you can sell at (the bid price) can be wildly different. That also means that any “at current market price” order you send (especially in pre-market) may be filled at a price different than the price you think it’s going to be filled at.
A third concept to think about is market efficiency. The central idea of market efficiency is that the price reflects all available information (different forms of efficiency consider private/public/historical info). A truly efficient market will react instantaneously and accurately to any new information that is created/released, eg. A firm releases earnings and beats expectations, therefore the price jumps up.
If market efficiency is a product of investors discovering information and acting on it, that means your best opportunities are in places that are less visible to the aggregate investing public. That’s where pennystocks comes in. Do a search on most of the tickers listed here, and you’ll see a bunch of summary stock profiles and not much else. Do a search for any S&P 500 company and you’ll find an incredible amount of news, branding, and other information. If you’re looking for “good” penny stocks to buy up, you’re looking for an information advantage over the “average” investor. However, there is the hazard (that’s been around long before the internet) of bad or fake information.
Remember that the market is an aggregate of all the investors out there, and those investors are subject to psychological biases, differences in personal attitude, and individual risk tolerance. That’s why you see some interesting reactions to events: remember when TSLA stock dropped because Elon Musk was smoking marijuana? There’s nothing about the CEO smoking marijuana that should change the fundamental value of the company, but investors collectively seemed to think this was a negative for the long term prospects of TSLA.
A few common investor biases:
• Losses are treated as more impactful than a gain. Think about if you buy into a stock and it immediately drops $.10. Compare this to how you react if you buy in and it immediately jumps $.10; the average investor is going to react more strongly to the former.
• We all hate having made a “loser” trade. The effect is usually that investors hold on too long to a poorly performing stock in hopes that it will rebound.
• Investors tend to anchor their perception of a stock’s performance based on their entry price. A $.10 drop in price hits worse if it takes you below your purchase price
• Playing with “house money” (ie. your gains) is treated differently than your initial principal. In practice, this means that an investor that has done well recently is more risk-tolerant (and not always in a good way)
• Investors are susceptible to "herding" behavior, where they follow what someone else is doing not because they know what that someone else is doing is good, but because they think that someone else knows something they don't.
Stock prices are subject to the principles of supply and demand, ie. increased demand will raise the price, and people looking to sell more than buy will lower the price. This is especially important when it comes to momentum (the principle that an increasing stock price will continue to increase and a falling price will continue to fall). This is why you see overreactions to news items and a subsequent reversal; a news item creates a buying/selling frenzy that pushes the price until cooler heads walk in and say “maybe this price is wrong”. This is where swing traders try to profit: among other things, they look for stocks that have a drop that is unjustified in material info or in the degree of drop, buy up at “downward momentum” prices and sell after the reversal. Day traders also try to benefit by buying stocks with positive momentum and selling the second that momentum reverses.
So what does this mean for us at pennystocks? A few considerations that are unique for penny stocks:
1) I already mentioned it, but liquidity is a big consideration: Bid/ask spreads may be larger than normal and many brokers either don’t let you trade below $.01 or make you pay a fee to do so. This also means that options covering penny stocks are either sparse or nonexistent.
2) Information coverage: information can be hard to find, and sifting through good and bad info can be a chore
3) Low market participation: The smaller number of traders means that it takes fewer people to influence the price in a material way. This is what makes penny stocks susceptible to pump and dump schemes: A bad actor just needs to convince a (relatively) small number to buy in to a stock to bump up the price, then the dump can crater the price leaving a bunch of bag holders in their wake.
This also means that the price is subject to more psychological bias on the part of investors.
4) There are a lot of biotech firms in penny-stock land. The fortunes of these companies rest entirely on the outcomes of drug trials and/or acquisition by larger firms, which means you can see massive swings in price.
This scene from The Wolf of Wall Street should be required viewing for anyone wanting to jump headfirst into penny stocks. The modernization of trading means that commissions are drastically reduced, but the lessons here still apply. I’m not saying “don’t invest” because there are some mighty gains to be had if you do it right. I’m saying “be cautious” and certainly don’t trade on emotion. Understand that what we’re doing here is speculation, and that many stocks with penny prices are trading at penny prices for a reason. Increased volatility in the penny stocks market is going to make you feel a lot of things, but it’s important to compartmentalize this emotion and trade logically. The moment you start treating it, consciously or unconsciously, like a casino, you’ll get casino-like returns (spoiler alert, the house always wins in the end)
A few closing thoughts:
• Like another recently popular post here said, don’t be afraid to walk away for a few days to cool off.
• FOMO is the gains killer; there will always be a New Moon in terms of penny stocks.
• Pay attention to the sector you’re buying in and understand how that might influence the volatility of the stock’s price. Be especially wary of anyone trying to sell you on a “sure thing” biotech firm.
• MLFB to the moon! (Just kidding, don't rely on me to tell you what to buy) (EDIT: By Request 🚀🚀🚀)
And finally
• Do your own research! There are some legitimate DD threads on here, but you should do your own research and make sure they’re legit. Some threads here sound a lot like Jordan Belfort in the video above.
Further reading:
Wikipedia’s very long list of cognitive biases
Efficient markets hypothesis
Behavioral finance

On May 6, 2010, Jim Cramer’s brain broke. “That is not a real price,” he yelled to his monitor. “OK? That is not a real price.” Proctor & Gamble had just fallen 25% in a manner of minutes, then 29%, then 31%. Cramer had never seen such a shiny knife, such a beautiful buy, and he searched frantically for the right camera to beg his followers to add PG to their portfolio.
There weren’t enough buttons on Cramer’s soundboard to fully capture how he felt about the quickest drop in Dow Jones history. In what would later be dubbed “The Crash of 2:45” or simply “The Flash Crash,” over a trillion dollars was wiped from the stock market in a manner of 15 minutes. The odd thing was, despite dropping more than 9% at one point, the market would rapidly recover a bit after 3 PM and would close only 3% lower for the day.
In the ensuing days and weeks, journalists and financial commentators and United States Congressmen would try and determine where this volatility had come from. Something weird had just happened.
#
In the investigations that followed, regulators would consider a couple of theories. Was this a “fat-finger trade” where a trader inadvertently placed a large sell order, triggering a domino effect of sorts where algos would in turn sell? Was this a well-coordinated cyberattack, aimed to cripple American institutions? Was it simply a dip exacerbated by high-frequency traders? Had Janet Yellen forgotten to change the printer toner?
Nobody knew. But five months after the flash crash, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a joint report that on May 6, 2010 the market was “so fragmented and fragile that a single large trade could send stocks into a sudden spiral.” They stated that a group called Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. had inadvertently played a role in the crash by initiating a sale of 75,000 E-Mini S&P contracts ($4.1 billion total) as a hedge to an existing position. This, the report said, coupled with the high-frequency traders trying to sell the long futures contracts they had just picked up from Waddell & Reed, led to a game of “hot potato” where the contracts were resold to other HFTs.
The report though was leaving out a crucial player.
#
In 2005, Navinder Sarao was living the dream. At 27 years old, he still lived with his parents in Hounslow, a working-class suburb outside of London, demanding tendies to be delivered to his bedroom by his sweet emigrant mother. To the people who knew him, Navinder, or Nav, was known to be quick-witted and quick to anger. He was dominant at Halo and FIFA, and he had a proclivity to focus on one task for hours and hours on end until he mastered it. He was almost obsessive in his interests.
Despite still living with his parents, young Nav had aspirations. In 2006, he responded to an ad in the Evening Standard that read, “Wanted: futures traders. Must work well under pressure.” That’s it. That was the ad. And Nav, with no experience and a honey mustard-stained tie, went to the FutexLive headquarters—a drab office situated above a supermarket 45 minutes outside London—and successfully hid his Asperger’s and got the job. He was now a professional trader.
Nav picked things up quickly. Realizing that he was surrounded by day-trading retards, he moved his desk to the corner of the shabby trading floor and bought a pair of noise-canceling headphones. He’d found success trading E-mini S&P Futures, which is the primary futures trading vehicle for the S&P 500. And with his noise-canceling headphones, Nav would follow the orders that would enter and leave the markets. His coworkers would marvel at the autist in the corner and the returns he was regularly pulling in.
Then 2008 happened. By the time the financial crisis was in full swing, Nav was almost thirty and had decided to leave Futex. He had accumulated $2 million from his trades the last couple of years, and he figured the most prudent move as a budding millionaire was to set up his command center in his bedroom. He still lived with his parents.
#
Nav realized something early on in the mortgage crisis that not everyone else did. He realized that governments would be forced to step in and save these retarded institutions, and he knew the banks wouldn’t be allowed to fall. And he bet $2 million—his whole net worth at the time—that he would be right. He made this bet on a Friday, and the following Monday, George Bush announced the TARP plan.
Prices proceeded to recover 19% over the next couple of weeks, and Nav rode the wave and turned his $2 million into $15 million. Did he rest on his laurels? Fuck no, this kid’s retarded! Nav didn’t want a wife and a home with a couple of kids running around. He wanted GLORY.
#
Around 2010, the markets were seeing an influx in high-frequency trading, and Nav took personal insult to these robots. People were getting scalped by these algos, and those scalps belonged to Nav. Those profits were rightfully his.
In order to beat the robots, Nav decided to build his own robot. And unsurprisingly, fueled by Code Red and autism, Nav’s algo worked magnificently. Pretty soon, he was regularly pulling in half a million a day. All the while living in a cramped bedroom of his parents’ home that cost $300,000.
#
May 6, 2010, started out as a regular day for Nav. The markets were sliding a bit, and Jim Cramer was flailing about his studio as though he were fighting a cloud of bats, but this was roughly on par for the time. Nav’s algo was pumping E-mini sell orders into the market—$200 million worth of orders to be exact—which ultimately resulted in a loss of liquidity (don’t ask me how this worked, I’m still confused why my PLTR 12/11 40C aren’t printing). At around 1:40 EST, or 6:40 in Hounslow, his mother called from the bottom of the steps to inform Nav that din-din was ready and would he please come down.
So Nav logged off.
And exactly one minute after that, the market began to fall at a rate that had never seen before. Nav had no idea though; he was in an argument with his father about why he needed to chew with his mouth open in order to let the scalding tendy fumes out. A trillion dollars had been wiped from American markets, and the instigator of it all was too retarded to know what he’d done.
The tendies were good though.
#
The trillion-dollar loss turned out to be not that big of a deal. The DOW snapped back from the 9% freefall like a rubber band, like any stock that Andrew Left has deemed to be a casino. But the NYSE and NASDAQ officials proceeded to meet over the next couple of months to try and determine what caused the nosedive and rapid recovery. In the reports that they would write, regulators made no reference to manipulation and no reference to Nav. In fact, he wasn’t even aware there was an investigation going on. He wasn’t aware he did anything wrong.
But regulators eventually began to notice that Nav was canceling a lot of orders. The CFTC sent him an email and asked if he could explain what he’d been up to. What was the reason for his canceling an obscene number of orders? That’s what big banks did. And that’d usually be fine and all, but Nav was a singular trader and that made it suspicious.
Nav wrote back to the CFTC explaining in careful terms that he had nothing to apologize for and that the CFTC could kiss his ass. He actually sent that. He told the CFTC to kiss his ass. Which, in hindsight, might’ve been a bad idea but the regulators were still too stupid and boomery to charge him with anything at the time. Nav would’ve gotten away with it too if it weren’t for a blabbermouth desk trader in Chicago who months later reported a different block of Nav’s trades to the CFTC, rekindling the case against Nav.
The investigation and case were dragged out over months and years, and I know 99% of you were too impatient to get this far, so I’ll give the cliff notes for the rest. Basically, Nav would eventually be charged with “spoofing,” which is the purchase of a large block of orders with the intent to cancel them. Spoofing artificially drives prices higher or lower. So the FBI and other concerned parties showed up on the doorstep of Nav’s Hounslow townhome in 2015, and he was extradited to the U.S. The judge learned he was worth $50 million, so he set bail to $7.5 million. Curiously enough though, Nav couldn’t access the $50 million or pay bail, and it was later determined that he’d somehow lost the fortune, seemingly to various shady investment advisors who promised to keep his money safe. (I personally like to think he’s stashed his earnings into a Caribbean account and that he’ll return to his private island once things blow over)
Over the next couple of months, Nav worked with investigators and taught them how market abuse happens. He was diagnosed with Asperger’s by a prison doctor, and the judge, sensing the moral dilemma of incarcerating an autist, and sensing Nav had received punishment enough from being scammed out of his $50 million, recommended a year of house arrest.
So Nav is currently serving his year of house arrest in the same bedroom where he amassed $50 million. But now he’s penniless at 41.
TLDR: Some autist beats the system, but the casino is angry and creates new rules to retroactively punish him for his winnings.

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a comment in response to a question about ETFs. This question comes up very often; usually two or three times a week. Maybe more than that. Several people suggested that it be "pinned." I obviously cannot do that, however if a mod wants to pin this, feel free to do so. I did make a few modifications and additions to that comment and for those who haven't gone back to see the changes, I thought I'd post it again here. Hopefully, this helps people who are interested in an investing approach that is either made up of ETFs or that includes ETFs as a part of their portfolio.
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QQQ - This one uses the NASDAQ 100 as its benchmark. Obviously it's an Indexed, non-managed ETF. XTF used to rate this one as a perfect 10.0 out of 10 rating, but recently dropped it to 9.9 out of 10. It has one of the highest rates of return over the past 10 years of any ETF. It does tend to be tech-heavy, especially with the FAANG +M stocks. (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google and Microsoft). Other top holdings include TSLA, NVDA and ADBE. (The rating dropped recently when the portfolio of the NASDAQ 100 was re-balanced).
VOO/SPY - VOO and SPY are non-managed funds indexed to the S&P 500 Index. These funds are very popular on this subreddit, for good reason. They are well diversified, broad market funds investing in mostly US stocks. XTF rates these funds at 9.6 out of 10 because their return on investment over the long term is somewhat tempered by some of the blue chip stocks in the funds. But those stocks also help reduce volatility relative to some other ETFs. These are solid investments, but keep in mind that in the top 10 holdings there will be a lot of crossover between these funds and other broad market funds that hold US stocks like QQQ, VTI, VGT, VOOG and SPYG. There are differences, of course, as well, but you always want to know where those duplications exist.
IWF - This is a Russell 1000 Growth fund. It is one of my favorites that doesn't get talked about much. It does have a lot of crossover with the other funds mentioned above, but the mix is slightly different. Other funds that use the Russell 1000 Growth Index include RWGV and VONG. I would describe this fund as more aggressive than VOO/SPY, less volatile than QQQ. VONE and IWB use the Russell 1000 Index as their benchmark. SPYG and VOOG use the S&P 500 Growth Index for their benchmark and would be similar (but not identical) to IWF, VONG and RWGV.
IWM - for someone looking to diversify a little bit, this is a great fund to look into. This fund is a non-managed, indexed fund that uses the Russell 2000 index as its benchmark. The big difference between the Russell 2000 index and many of the the other indexes is that the Russell 2000 index looks at small and mid-cap companies, rather than large-cap companies. Thus, there is zero crossover between this one and the funds mentioned above. While this fund will move up and down with the market, it is often less volatile than the market overall. If you look at the charts, this fund has under-performed some of the other funds over the past few months while the market has been very volatile in an upward direction, but in a crash, this fund would probably outperform the rest of the market. It has a 9.0/10 XTF rating.
VXUS - Vanguard Total International Index Fund ETF - top holdings include BABA, Tencent, Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductors, Novartis, Toyota. This is a broad market fund investing only in companies overseas. I'm not generally bullish on foreign markets, but this one is a very solid ETF with some companies that are likely to do extremely well for the foreseeable future. XTF rates this one a perfect 10.0 out of 10.
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF - This one is going to have a lot of crossover with VXUS. It is an Emerging Markets ETF with a lot of focus on China. It includes Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, along with companies like Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductors. This one should be a solid performer as long as our trade relations with China remain normal.
EFA - This is another international ETF, but here the focus is mainly on more established companies in Europe and Japan. This is a Large Cap ETF that includes companies like Nestle SA, Roche, Toyota, Novartis and AstraZeneca.
Sector fund ETFs:
ICLN/TAN/FAN - These funds are clean/renewable energy ETFs. ICLN is more broad while TAN focuses more specifically on solar energy and FAN specifically on wind generated energy. I think renewable energy companies are the future. There is no crossover in the top holdings of this fund with the top holdings of QQQ and most of the other broad market funds. Also, these are global, not just US based companies. QCLN and PBW are also renewable energy funds, but they also contain a lot of TSLA, NIO and W.K. H.S. in their top holdings making them "electric vehicle" funds, as well. No problem if you want to add that, but you'll find a lot of Tesla in some of the funds mentioned above.
ARK group of funds: ARKG, ARKF, ARKK ARKW, ARKQ, PRNT and IZRL. These are managed funds investing in companies that invest in disruptive companies in their respective industries. Most posters on this subreddit are bullish on these funds. They are aggressive growth ETFs, but should be considered somewhat risky and volatile.

• ARKG - Genomic Revolution
• ARKF - Fintech
• ARKK - Disruptive Companies (broader market)
• ARKW - Internet/computetechnology (Telsa is a top holding)
• ARKQ - Robotics and artificial intelligence
• PRNT - 3D printing technology
• IZRL - disruptive companies based in Israel

XL series of funds. Similar to the ARK series, these tend to be more aggressive growth funds, however these are passively managed indexed funds with various benchmarks that usually are overloaded in the better companies within a sector:

• XLV - Health Care
• XLK - Technology
• XLY - Consumer Discretionary
• XLF - Financial
• XLU - Utilities
• XLE - Energy
• XLB - Materials
• XLC - Communications
• XLG - S&P Top 50
• XLI - Industrial
• XLP - Consumer Staples
• XLRE - Real Estate

CLOUD COMPUTING: WCLD, SKYY, CLOU, BUG and XIKT. Of these WCLD has the best 52 week performance. Top holdings in WCLD include ZM, PLAN, CRM, CRWD, ZEN, WDAY, TENB, PCTY, DDOG, BL. Many of these are likely to also appear in QQQ, however, they would be in very small percentages as the Cap on these companies is much smaller.
Aerospace and Defense: XAR, ITA, PPA
Real Estate: VNQ, FREL, SCHH, IYR, PSR, BBRE
Transportation: FTXR, XTN, IYT, RGI, JETS
Oil/Energy: IYE, FENY, VDE
Consumer Staples: FSTA, VDC, IECS
Media/Entertainment: IEME, PBS, PEJ, IYC
Robotics, AI, Innovative Technologies: THNQ, ROBO, XITK, SKYY, GDAT
Semiconductors: SOXX, QTEC, QTUM, SMH, FTXL
IT: FTEC, VGT, IWY, IGM, FDN
Cyber Security: HACK, CIBR, IHAK, BUG, FITE
Consumer Discretionary: FDIS, VCR, IEDI, JHMC, IYC
5G, Connectivity: FIVG, NXTG, WUGI
Self Driving EV: IDRV, DRIV, MOTO
Gaming/Esports: NERD, HERO, ESPO, GAMR, SOCL
Casinos/Gambling: BETZ, BJK
Online Retail: IBUY, EBIZ, ONLN, CLIX, GBUY, BUYZ
Utilities: IDU, VPU, FUTY, RYU
Health Care: FHLC, VHT, IYH
Medical Devices and Equipment: IHI, IEHS, XHE
​
Other Unique ETFs, non-sector based:
CHGX: US Large Cap Fossil Fuel Free ETF
VIRS: Biothreat Strategy ETF
​
​
A nice portfolio might look something like this:
20% - Broad market US fund such as QQQ, VOO or IWF
20% - VXUS - International
20% - IWM - Small/Mid-cap broad market fund
10% each in four sector funds of your choice
I'm not a financial expert or advisor and this is not financial advice, just an opinion from a random internet person. I do own shares in several, but not all of the funds listed above, including QQQ, IWF, some ARK funds, ICLN, VXUS, etc.
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Edit: In one of my previous edits, I accidentally erased a bunch of the sector funds. Please feel free to comment with your favorite sector funds and let me know if I forgot to add back some that I had before.

With the conclusion of the 2020 elections and the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on the horizon, it's time to take a look at what things as investors to watch for in the coming year. We are now beginning to get a picture of the balance of power in Washington and how that is going to affect the markets and investing. Let's analyze what is likely to happen and what you need to watch for.

1. Stimulus: For several weeks now, the folks in Washington have been debating back and forth about another round of stimulus money for the economy as a response to the COVID pandemic and its effect on American businesses, workers and investors. Many politicians have been calling for a $2000 stimulus check for American families. Less than a week before the inauguration, we are likely to find out what President-Elect Biden's plan is going to look like in a speech scheduled for this evening. Biden is expected to unveil a stimulus package that he describes as being "in the trillions" of dollars of federal stimulus money. We are likely to see a return to the return of a $600 weekly unemployment benefit and a third stimulus check. Biden has tweeted that he will push for a $2000 stimulus check, something the Democrats in the House and Senate have been pushing for for more than a month. Depending on how it works its way through Congress and what Biden and congressional members of his party come up with, we could end up with a plan that includes two more stimulus checks; one right away and one more down the road. Republicans may try to stand in the way of more stimulus money, but Democrats are likely to have enough votes to get more stimulus checks through congress.
2. Investments: With the Dow and the S&P at or near all-time highs, one would think that the stock market has recovered even if the economy has not. Stocks seem completely separated from the harsh realities of other areas of the economy: business revenues, bankruptcies, unemployment and decreased travel and vacation spending. However, as the vaccine rollouts continue and as the pandemic begins to subside (which is likely to happen by the 2nd quarter of the year), there will likely be some pent-up demand on many sectors of the economy, including the aforementioned travel sector. Restaurants, hotels, casinos, airlines, theme parks and other businesses that have been hurt the most from the pandemic may see a boom in the summer and fall months. But, most sectors of the economy are likely to do better in 2021 than they did in 2020, with the possible exception of online retailing. (And even then, I'm not expecting that sector to experience a significant slow-down). We may see indexes reach all-time highs multiple times throughout the year, assuming we don't have something else unexpected come along to tank the economy once again.
3. Taxes: The balance of power should prevent a major change in Federal Income Tax rates and deductions for at least the next 2 years. While President-Elect Biden has a tax plan that would increase taxes significantly on higher wage earners, and would raise Capital Gains taxes and payroll taxes, those plans would have to be approved by Congress. It's unlikely that Biden will get everything he wants through the divided Congress. However, even if he gets some things through congress, it could have a significant impact on some investors. Investors would be wise to keep an eye on tax changes that find their way into law and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
4. Retirement Planning: There were a lot of changes to retirement planning in 2020, mostly because of the Secure Act, which passed with bipartisan support. There were also provisions in recent pandemic relief bills that temporarily altered rules for retirement withdrawals. With the new balance of power in Congress, a retirement bill with further enhancements could emerge in 2021. Provisions could include such things as raising the age for required minimum distributions to 75, indexing catch-up contributions for inflation, and adding additional catch-up options for those over 60.
5. Health care: Joe Biden ran a big part of his campaign on improving the Affordable Care Act, but the future of that law depends heavily on what happens with the case currently before the Supreme Court, and that may not be decided until the summer. “I’d put the odds of the court overturning the whole law pretty low. From that point, it’s then a matter of what the government can do administratively through the Health and Human Services Department and through current law,” says Febeo. For instance, the Biden administration may undo many recent actions taken, some as simple as widening the open enrollment period that Trump narrowed. In the meantime, at least for the first part of 2021, health care policy will ostensibly be about fighting COVID-19, rolling out the vaccine distribution, and gett

https://www.vhinny.com/p/moneywatch-2021-nw1ghz8u64

Investors might have thought they'd seen it all in 2020. But the stock market action was merely a preview of what's to come in 2021.
Just to take a quick look back, the market gave everyone a scare in 2020 when it bottomed in March. But then the S&P 500 surged 67% between March 23 and year-end.
Certain stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Zoom (ZM) and Moderna (MRNA) performed even better, soaring by triple-digits.
Tesla Zoom Moderna
And now, we are going from one "year like no other" to another.
Here's what I expect the new year will bring for investors…
Prediction No. 1: The Bull Will Still Run in 2021 As 2020 has shown us, things outside your control—like a global pandemic—can render any prediction worthless.
But I have a lot of confidence in—and a lot of money riding on—this idea.
Why? Three reasons…
We have every reason to expect the Federal Reserve will keep money flowing into stocks. Their easy money policies help push people out of “safe” investments (i.e., money market funds and bonds) and into riskier assets (i.e., stocks). With the Fed pledging to keep interest rates low until 2023, bulls can look forward to a multiyear boost.
Here's something else investors can look forward to…
Congressional gridlock isn't going anywhere. With political leadership split nearly down the middle in Washington, D.C., we are in for at least two years of political gridlock. Gridlock is historically great for stocks… especially Walmart (WMT), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), and IBM (IBM).
As is this…
Markets are at all-time highs… which typically lead to more all-time highs! Since 1988, the S&P 500 returns were significantly higher on one-, three-, and five-year time horizons when the index was at all-time highs:
S&P 500 Total Returns
But while I expect the bulls to keep charging, some sectors are looking even better than others.
Prediction No. 2: Tech Will Be 2021's Top-Performing Sector Technology stocks have been on an incredible run over the last five years. In fact, it has been the best-performing sector in three of the last four years.
Forget those nattering nabobs of negativity who say the tech run is just about done. Get ready to see more outperformance in 2021.
Source Novel Investor
For one, while some tech names have had an incredible run in 2020, others have struggled... particularly in the second half of the year.
Household names like Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), and Microsoft (MSFT) have well underperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since July. And smart investors will see this opportunity to buy great companies at a discount to their peers.
Amazon Facebook Microsoft
The other kicker is technology stocks are not expensive.
Compared to the dot-com bubble (when interest rates were 5X higher) the five largest US technology companies are relatively cheap:
Price to Sales Ratio
Technology companies allowed many of us to keep working from home, and biotechnology companies will help us return to normal.
That means we'll see another big year from the companies that made—and will continue to make—this possible.
The worst of the COVID-19 pandemic will soon be behind us. The coronavirus vaccine will take effect, both physically and psychologically, and the global economy will find its footing again.
Some companies are already taking that side of the bet...
Prediction No. 3: 2021 Will Be the Best Year in a Decade for Dividend Hikes 2020 was the worst year in a decade for dividend investors. In total, global companies cut their dividends by 22%.
That means 27% of all publicly traded companies slashed their dividends this year.
Global Dividends Paid
We stayed on top of these dividend cuts throughout the crisis. From cruise ships to casinos, we steered away from companies whose payouts my Dividend Sustainability Index (DSI) identified as being in danger.
But what goes down… must come up. At least when it comes to dividends.
We have already seen a few dividends return from the dead. Kohl's (KSS), TJX Companies (TJX), Marathon Oil (MRO), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) are among the first to reopen their purse strings.
Look for more where that came from… even among those that maintained and/or raised their payouts in 2020.
Why? We can use history as our guide.
In the two years after the 2008 financial crisis, we saw global dividend payouts increase 39%.
With the Fed keeping the easy money flowing… techs and biotechs getting ready for another unbelievable year… and dividend income ready to be unleashed, there's never been a better time to be an investor.
Let’s hope penaltykickerz reacts to this on his next video.

Hello all, I am a graduate student in finance with a bachelor's degree in Accounting. I wrote my thesis on how macroeconomic policy affects US equity markets (equity markets = stock market). I've spent the last 3 years studying this stuff and I'd say that I am not qualified in any sense to give sound investment advice. What that should tell you is that the stock market is an extremely complex landscape and takes years to understand. Even the best of the best lose money. With that being said, this comment is for informational purposes and not to be taken as investment advice or direction.
​
I originally wrote this post as a comment to another user, but thought that it may be beneficial for others to use. It's very surface level, but I think it does a good job of answering some more abstract questions that people may have about equity markets. I also think it does a good job of establishing a solid, albeit basic idea of value investing and financial analysis.
---
Understand that the last ten years does not accurately represent equity markets historically. From 1925 to 1941, if you invested in the S&P 500 index, you would have seen an average annual return of less than 5% with several of those years being negative- over the next ten years. Same goes for 1960 to 1975. (Disclaimer: Before people tear me apart saying you can't invest in the S&P 500 directly, I know. I'm using it as an example.)
​
We've experienced a remarkably strong bull market over the last ten years, with 20% annual returns on the S&P 500 index; however, just because we've had a strong market the last ten years does not mean it will stay that way. Consider Japan in the early 1990s. Their bull market turned into a bubble (google: financial bubble) and for the next 10 years they saw no long term growth in their equity markets. They call the 1990s in Japan, "the lost decade". So this begs the question: if there are 10, sometimes 15 year long periods where we have almost no growth, or perhaps negative returns, when, where, and why should I park my money in equities?
​
The first thing I think we should understand is risk. Risk is at the heart of almost all things "investing". If you go to the casino, and place $5,000 straight at the roulette table, your payout is a massive 35:1. If your bet hits, you walk away with $180,000. But statistically, your chances of winning are less than 3%. The risk is massive. Alternatively, if you buy a 3-month US treasury bill, the payout is around .1%. Meaning you would made $5 on a $5,000 investment. Why? The risk is so low. Also, what is a 3-month US treasury bill? Let me explain.
​
A US Treasury bill is a short-term government debt security. Here's how it works. You give the US government $5,000. They now owe you $5,000 PLUS interest at a future date. In this example, it's 3 months. The US government says, "Thank you! We will give you $5,005 back in three months!" In three months, they give you the money back. Ask yourself, if you had to guess the percentage likelihood of the US government collapsing in the next three months, what would it be? Pretty low, right? That's why the return is so low. The United States government has the power, means, right, and infrastructure to tax the wealthiest population on the planet. Also, they aren't going out of business anytime soon. Therefore, that $5 return on a $5,000 investment is essentially guaranteed. Check out this chart.
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All stocks sit somewhere on this line of risk and return. But, how do we know the risk and return? Great question. How do we assess the value of an asset? An asset's worth is the sum of its future cash flows discounted to today's dollars. Read that again. An asset's worth is the sum of its future cash flows discounted to today's dollars. This is what we call "Net Present Value". Here's a video over it. Here's the NPV formula.
​
Let's say we have a machine that spits out one dollar every year for 5 years. What is the value of that machine assuming a 2% inflation rate every year? Let's find out! Remember our NPV formula? Let's do the math. [$1 / (1+ .02)1] + [$1 / (1+ .02)2]+ ... + [$1 / (1+ .02)5] = $4.71. In this example, inflation rate is the discount rate; however, the discount rate can be many other things. We won't go into that right now though.
​
So what does this mean to you? It gives you perspective. All those price movements in the stock market are the product of huge investment banks, mutual funds, and hedge funds moving money in and out of equities in massive quantities, with those decisions backed by hundreds, if not thousands of hours of research with private data that you can't access even if you had the money too.
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One of the big ways they (big banks) make these decisions is by using the NPV formula with Net Income in the numerator to determine the value of the asset and a rate to discount the cash flows at (there are ways to do this, again, we won't go into it). Then they use more complex methods to assess risk. Other methods of valuation may be used, but again, this is one of the big ones.
​
So far, we've learned that risk and reward are positively correlated and companies are valued by their earnings. But, if companies are valued by their earnings, then why do bubbles happen? Why does the market tank sometimes? Shouldn't the market accurately reflect all companies at any given time? In theory, yes. But humans are irrational creatures, and often wrong. Therefore, stock prices are not always appropriately valued.
​
I am going to introduce you to two financial ratios: earnings per share (EPS) and price to earnings (P/E) ratio. NOTE: EARNINGS = NET INCOME.
​
Earnings per share is the net income of a company divided by it's number of outstanding shares. EPS = Net Income / Shares Outstanding. So let's say my company has a net income of $100 for the 2020 year and there are 100 shares outstanding. That would mean that my company's EPS is $1. Let's look at a real example: Apple. Click on this link. In the top left hand corner, click on sections>financial statements>consolidated statements of operations. Find EPS. Apple's EPS is 3.31. That's pretty solid. EPS puts a companies earnings in perspective with respect to the number of shareholders it has, which allows you to compare a companies earnings to its competitors, whether they be smaller or larger.
​
Next, the price to earnings ratio. This is easy to calculate. It is just the share price divided by the EPS. PE = Price / EPS. What this does is puts the price of the stock in perspective with respect to its earnings. Consider the example where my company had an EPS of $1. Let's say the price of my stock is $30 per share. That would mean my PE ratio is 30 (PE raio of 30 = $30/$1 EPS). For some perspective on the PE ratio- the average P/E ratio in the S&P 500 is 25-30. But they can be as high as 1,000 (like Tesla) or as low 4 or 5. What the PE ratio does is says, "Hey man, here's a metric to determine how justifiable the price of this stock is considering how much the company makes." Generally speaking, investing in companies that have low PE ratios tend to show higher returns. Why? Because there is more of an acceptable margin (historically) for the price to increase with respect to earnings.
​
For example: Five years ago, Apple's PE ratio was around 10. Now it's 40. This means the price went up, the earnings went down, or both. Over the last 5 years, Apple's EPS has increased. Therefore, because it's PE ratio is increasing as well, this means that it's price of the stock is increasing faster than it's earnings. Reference this chart. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, it just means that the big boys like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc. think that Apple is going to do really well over the coming years as of right now. But let's say that tomorrow Apple was outed as a front for a money laundering scheme and they were going to be audited by the SEC and FBI. The price would tank. Why? Because people would be questioning if Apple would even exist as a company in the following years. They (the big boys, the government, me and you) would doubt their earnings. Rightfully so, I should add.
​
What I (and many others) do is look at companies and determine:
​

1. Are their earnings sound? (Is it positive? If not, will it be positive? Will the company grow? Will another company come in and do whatever this company is doing, better?) This will help you determine if the return will be solid.
2. What is the current price of the equity in relation to the earnings? (What's the PE? Is it going up? Is it going down? Why?) This will help you determine how risky is your investment.

​
A solid company is generally one that has a high EPS, a low PE ratio, and is expected to grow. The reason Tesla has a PE ratio of >1,000 is because people expect it to grow. Like, they expect it to be the largest electric vehicle company by net income in the next 10-20 years AND expand into other markets like solar energy and batteries. Will they be right? I guess we'll see!
​
This is the tip of the ice berg when it comes to investing. If you truly want to learn how to capture returns without exposing your investment to a large amount of risk, you are going to have to spend time learning how to do this. Here are some resources:
​

• The Intelligent Investor (with Commentary) by Benjamin Graham. Read it entirely, the commentary first, then the chapters (Commentary, chapter, commentary, chapter, ...). Then read the commentary again and make notes.
• Learn how to read three financial statements: The balance sheet, the income statement, the statement of cash flows.
• Watch Martin Shkreli's investing lessons on Youtube. Specifically the first 5 or 6. Yes, he's done some bad stuff. But he really is an excellent teacher and extremely smart.

​
In my opinion, experience is a great teacher. Play with a small amount of money. Throw $100 at a stock you like and see what happens to it. If it drops 10% in a day, figure out why. If it goes up 10% in a day, figure out why. If it goes up steadily over the next six months, figure out why. If it doesn't do anything- figure out why.
​
I'd like to note again that these opinions do not constitute investment advice. They are my personal opinions and do not guarantee any sort of returns. This is how I personally approach the stock market. Investing in any asset carries risk and all investors should conduct their own due diligence and analysis before investing.
​
"Be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy when others are fearful."
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-Warren Buffett
​
Cheers

With the conclusion of the 2020 elections and the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on the horizon, it's time to take a look at what things as investors to watch for in the coming year. We are now beginning to get a picture of the balance of power in Washington and how that is going to affect the markets and investing. Let's analyze what is likely to happen and what you need to watch for.

1. Stimulus: For several weeks now, the folks in Washington have been debating back and forth about another round of stimulus money for the economy as a response to the COVID pandemic and its effect on American businesses, workers and investors. Many politicians have been calling for a $2000 stimulus check for American families. Less than a week before the inauguration, we are likely to find out what President-Elect Biden's plan is going to look like in a speech scheduled for this evening. Biden is expected to unveil a stimulus package that he describes as being "in the trillions" of dollars of federal stimulus money. We are likely to see a return to the return of a $600 weekly unemployment benefit and a third stimulus check. Biden has tweeted that he will push for a $2000 stimulus check, something the Democrats in the House and Senate have been pushing for for more than a month. Depending on how it works its way through Congress and what Biden and congressional members of his party come up with, we could end up with a plan that includes two more stimulus checks; one right away and one more down the road. Republicans may try to stand in the way of more stimulus money, but Democrats are likely to have enough votes to get more stimulus checks through congress.
   
2. Investments: With the Dow and the S&P at or near all-time highs, one would think that the stock market has recovered even if the economy has not. Stocks seem completely separated from the harsh realities of other areas of the economy: business revenues, bankruptcies, unemployment and decreased travel and vacation spending. However, as the vaccine rollouts continue and as the pandemic begins to subside (which is likely to happen by the 2nd quarter of the year), there will likely be some pent-up demand on many sectors of the economy, including the aforementioned travel sector. Restaurants, hotels, casinos, airlines, theme parks and other businesses that have been hurt the most from the pandemic may see a boom in the summer and fall months. But, most sectors of the economy are likely to do better in 2021 than they did in 2020, with the possible exception of online retailing. (And even then, I'm not expecting that sector to experience a significant slow-down). We may see indexes reach all-time highs multiple times throughout the year, assuming we don't have something else unexpected come along to tank the economy once again.
   
3. Taxes: The balance of power should prevent a major change in Federal Income Tax rates and deductions for at least the next 2 years. While President-Elect Biden has a tax plan that would increase taxes significantly on higher wage earners, and would raise Capital Gains taxes and payroll taxes, those plans would have to be approved by Congress. It's unlikely that Biden will get everything he wants through the divided Congress. However, even if he gets some things through congress, it could have a significant impact on some investors. Investors would be wise to keep an eye on tax changes that find their way into law and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
   
4. Retirement Planning: There were a lot of changes to retirement planning in 2020, mostly because of the Secure Act, which passed with bipartisan support. There were also provisions in recent pandemic relief bills that temporarily altered rules for retirement withdrawals.
   

With the new balance of power in Congress, a retirement bill with further enhancements could emerge in 2021. Provisions could include such things as raising the age for required minimum distributions to 75, indexing catch-up contributions for inflation, and adding additional catch-up options for those over 60.

1. Health care: Joe Biden ran a big part of his campaign on improving the Affordable Care Act, but the future of that law depends heavily on what happens with the case currently before the Supreme Court, and that may not be decided until the summer.

“I’d put the odds of the court overturning the whole law pretty low. From that point, it’s then a matter of what the government can do administratively through the Health and Human Services Department and through current law,” says Febeo. For instance, the Biden administration may undo many recent actions taken, some as simple as widening the open enrollment period that Trump narrowed.
In the meantime, at least for the first part of 2021, health care policy will ostensibly be about fighting COVID-19, rolling out the vaccine distribution, and getting the economy back to normal.
Thanks for reading!
Checkout ixamnis's page for more.

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

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Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

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Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

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Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

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Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.

Good morning everyone, get ahead of the week, follow your rules, let’s all make some money
Of note for Semiconductors (SOX), Japan is aiming to invite Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) or other global chipmakers to build an advanced chip manufacturing plant jointly with domestic chip equipment suppliers.
Of note for Automakers (F, GM, FCAU, TSLA), Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) CEO Diess reportedly told the Executive Board that the Co. is expecting to return to pre-COVID sales/profit at the commencement of 2023.
This week’s Barron’s articles argues that chains like Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are focused on value, and as a result, they are a growth story when other retailers are not, noting that when economic conditions become more difficult for consumers, the dollar stores get going. A separate article notes that SoftBank (SFTBY) considering an IPO of its Arm Holdings makes sense, and it’s an important signal for investors about the future of the chip business. Chipotle (CMG) should “crush its earnings” this week, and Barron’s notes one sell-side analyst stating investors should buy the August USD 1,150 call option to cover the July 22nd earnings report. On banks (XLF, BKX), It might be time to embrace the uncertainty around bank names and consider Wells Fargo (WFC), the worst-performing of the big banks this year, noting that Wells has something the other banks don’t have: problems to fix. Goldman Sachs (GS) is a rare big financial company with an improving business and earnings outlook, Barron’s said, and it has a stock that looks reasonably priced at little more than 10x forward earnings. Barron’s argues that while shares of index providers MSCI (MSCI) and S&P Global (SPGI) aren’t cheap, both stocks could keep rising as new products and services translate into higher sales and profits

DOW JONES

Boeing Company (BA) is running out of space to stash newly-built 787 Dreamliner’s, with dozens of the planes sitting on the company’s premises, sources said; one BA watcher puts the number at 50, more than double the number of jets typically awaiting customers along Boeing’s flight lines. Elsewhere, Boeing and Etihad broaden its sustainability alliance by testing innovations on ecoDemonstrator 787, which flies on sustainable fuel made from vegetable oil, and waste animal fat. Meanwhile, NASA administrators are very confident in the SLS flying during 2021.
Chevron Corp. (CVX) is to acquire Noble Energy (NBL) for USD 5bln in an all-stock transaction, or USD 10.38/shr, with a total enterprise value, including debt, of USD 13bln; the deal marks a 7% premium for Noble, which trades at 50% below its 52-week high.
Goldman Sachs Group (GS) Senior Executives flew into Malaysia for talks with the government on the recovery of 1MDB assets; Malaysian prosecutors have charged GS and 17 current and former directors of its units for allegedly misleading investors over bond sales totalling USD 6.5 billion that the US bank helped raise for sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) signed an agreement with the UK to secure 90mln doses of two possible COVID-19 vaccines from the company and French Group Valneva. Note, the two Cos also announced early positive update from German Ph1/2 study; generated strong t-cell data; supports and expands upon early results from the corresponding US trial reported earlier in July.

NASDAQ 100

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) had its PT raised to a street high of USD 3800 at Goldman Sachs and Jefferies. Goldman Sachs maintains a conviction buy rating on the shares, rising the PT to the street high from USD 3,000. Analyst Heath Terry updated his estimates ahead of earnings to reflect the accelerating e-commerce growth. Revenue estimates are increased by 3% per year on average, while EBTIDA is left unchanged due to COVID expenditure and for an increase in infrastructure spending due to faster growth in retail and AWS.
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) NBCUniversal is reportedly planning broad-based layoffs to offset losses from the pandemic.
eBay Inc. (EBAY) Classifieds business auction has been awarded to Norway’s Adevinta for close to USD 9bln, where eBay will keep a minority stake in the unit, according to a source. Earlier reports noted it would be USD 8bln or above. Elsewhere, eBay (EBAY) is to begin expanding its management of payments globally; expected to deliver USD 2bln in revenue and USD 500mln in operating income in 2022.
Facebook, Inc. (FB) has had its advertising expenditure by Disney (DIS) dramatically cut, according to sources. Disney was Facebook’s top US advertiser for the first six months of 2020, research firm Pathmatics estimates. Meanwhile, The FTC is considering taking sworn testimony from Facebook (FB) CEO and COO as part of its investigation into whether the social-media giant has violated US antitrust laws, sources said; top Facebook officials are preparing for potential depositions and some are worried about the possibility.
Tesla (TSLA) is being probed by South Korean Fair Trade Commission, who launched an internal review of its advertising that described its autopilot as self-driving technology, according to Korea Herald citing sources. Meanwhile, it has also pulled another “demand lever” for it Model Y and has begun offering a lease agreement to customers for the vehicle.

S & P 500

Celanese (CE) announced it has raised its share repurchase authorisation by USD 500mln to USD 1.563bln.
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) told its pilots that furloughs could be avoided if they agree to a cut in guaranteed minimum pay, according to CNBC.
Ford Motor (F) and MobilEye have expanded its relationship to offer better camera-based collision avoidance in vehicles.
Halliburton Co. (HAL) Q2 20 (USD): Adj EPS 0.05 (exp. -0.12), Revenue 3.2bln (exp. 3.34bln). It recognised USD 2.1bln of pre-tax impairments and other charges in the quarter. North America revenue -57% Q/Q to USD 1bln.
Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) has been awarded a USD 15bln contract for C-130J development.
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) received the FDA’s green light for pooled testing, using the same COVID-19 molecular diagnostic first authorised by the agency in mid-March.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) – Almost a quarter of pilots accepted either early retirement or voluntary leave offers, according to CNBC.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is expanding capacity for those developing new and existing therapies for COVID; now supporting more than 200 projects globally.
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) announced the hackers on last week’s attack did more than cryptocurrency fraud, but they also walked away with some users personal data, according to WSJ. The report notes that data was taken from eight users.

OTHER

Alibaba (BABA) Ant Group is to plan simultaneous IPOs in Shanghai and Hong Kong, according to reports.
AstraZeneca (AZN LN, AZN) to publish eagerly anticipated COVID-19 trial results today. The FDA authorised its first COVID-19 diagnostic test for pools of samples, to let laboratories conserve resources by evaluating several people at once
Eldorado Resorts (ERI) USD 17.3 billion acquisition of Caesars Entertainment (CZR) received approval from The New Jersey Casino Control Commission, the last regulatory approval needed before the deal can close; the deal will result in the formation of the largest gaming company in the US.
Nikola (NKLA) chairman filed a new stock offering of up to 53.4mln shares related to warrants, but later noted it was just part of the process, adding “it’s difficult going ipo and after this, we’ll be full steam ahead”. Deutsche Bank note that the S-1 filing became effective, meaning 24mln warrants are now exercisable, which provides holders the right to buy shares for USD 11.50 and the 53.4mln shares owned by PIPE investors, enables them to be traded on the market. The analyst believes the potential for a portion of these 77mln shares to hit the market could create large technical selling pressure.
PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) and Royalty Pharma (RPTX) announced an agreement to acquire a portion of PTC’s royalty interest in risdiplan for USD 650mln in a one-time payment.
Samsung (SSNLF) is reportedly struggling to improve 5nm process yield, according to Digi Times citing sources. The article notes “It remains to be seen whether unsatisfactory yield rates at Samsung Electronics’ 5nm EUV process may affect the launch of Qualcomm’s next-generation flagship 5G mobile chip series.
Uber (UBER) and Alphabet Google (GOOG, GOOGL) announced a four-year agreement with Alphabet’s unit to use the Google Maps Platform Rides and Deliveries Services; Financial terms were not disclosed.
Yum China (YUMC) named official retail food services sponsor of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games, also becomes an official sponsor of the Chinese Olympic Committee through 2024-end.

Edit 10:00AM

Additional US equity stories

Walmart (WMT) is restarting talks of a potential sale of its UK supermarket unit, Asda - potentially of note for Tesco (TSCO LN), Sainsbury's (SBRY LN), Morrison's (MRW LN), Marks & Spencer's (MKS LN)
Sorento Therapeutics (SRNE) FDA has cleared the co.’s Abivertinib for Phase Two safety and efficacy study in hospitalized patients with moderate to severe coronavirus.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) announce early positive update from German Ph1/2 study; generated strong t-cell data; supports and expands upon early results from the corresponding US trial
Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI) - Elliott Management calls upon CCI to outline a five-year plan for its fiber segment on its July 30th earnings call.
Halliburton Co. (HAL) CEO says international business is continuing to be a more meaningful contributor to the company going forward; believes North America production will remain structurally lower in the future. The CEO Expects to see a more disciplined market with stronger operators and

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-rise-of-a-mom-and-pop-investors-in-the-stock-market-will-end-in-tears-warns-billionaire-cooperman-2020-06-15?mod=home-page
Billionaire Leon Cooperman on Monday said that the emergence of individual investors eagerly scooping up stocks that have been rocked amid the coronavirus-induced downturn will ultimately not end well for those individual investors.
The ‘Robinhood markets are going to end in tears,” said Cooperman during CNBC’s show “Halftime Report” on Monday, referring to the popular online trading platform.
Cooperman referred to a Barron’s article that noted that free trading app Robinhood has added more than three million accounts this year, and now has over 13 million, with a median age of 31.
A number of recent reports attribute the market’s rally since its March 23 low, and its subsequent choppy trading, to an era of zero-commission discount brokerage trades, ushered in by Charles Schwab SCHW, 1.41%, and platforms like Robinhood that cater to younger investors.
Critics like Cooperman say that a dearth of diversions due to COVID-19 lockdowns and unemployment have created a perfect environment for newly minted day traders to wreak havoc on Wall Street.
On Monday, Cooperman pointed to purchases of bankrupt car-rental company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. HTZ, -2.13%, which has drawn feverish buying interest from bargain-hunting investors, even though the company’s bankruptcy means that there is little if any equity value in the enterprise.
Thus far, mom-and-pop investors have outperformed pros like Cooperman and mutual funds, according to a research report from Goldman Sachs. It’s unclear, however, how long that outperformance will last and to the degree by which individual investors are piling into risky investments with reckless abandonment.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 2.20%, the S&P 500 index SPX, 2.04% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, 1.75% were resuming a rally on Monday after opening sharply lower on the day.
“The gambling casinos are closed and the [Federal Reserve] is promising you free money for the next two years, so let them speculate,” Cooperman said, referring to the central bank’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion from about $4 trillion at the beginning of March, as it rolls out stimulus measures to limit the damage from the pandemic. The Fed also has held interest rates at a range between 0% and 0.25% and is expected to keep rates around those superlow levels until at least 2022.
“Let them buy and trade. From my experience, this kind of stuff will end in tears,” Cooperman told CNBC.

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.

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Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?

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Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.

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Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 4th, 2020

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.6.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

• $PTON
• $WORK
• $LULU
• $CHWY
• $KR
• $ZS
• $COUP
• $LOVE
• $AEO
• $HQY
• $GFN
• $GME
• $ORCL
• $PLAY
• $RH
• $HDS
• $UXIN
• $MCFT
• $FCEL
• $CASY
• $MEIP
• $NAV
• $REVG
• $NSSC
• $ABM
• $SCWX
• $PHR
• $ALOT
• $CVGW
• $DSGX
• $ZUMZ
• $GIII
• $AVAV
• $BIOX
• $BIGC
• $LAKE
• $LTRX
• $BBCP
• $VRNT
• $FARM

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

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Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

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Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

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Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

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Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

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Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

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HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.